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arxiv: cond-mat/9804111 · v1 · submitted 1998-04-09 · ❄️ cond-mat.stat-mech · q-fin.ST

Are Financial Crashes Predictable?

Laurent Laloux (1) , Marc Potters (1) , Rama Cont (1 , 2) , Jean-Pierre Aguilar (1 , 3) , Jean-Philippe Bouchaud (1 , 4) ((1) Science & Finance (2) Polytechnique Lausanne (3) Capital Futures Management (4) CEA Saclay) This is my paper
classification ❄️ cond-mat.stat-mech q-fin.ST
keywords crashesfinancialaccumulationappearclaimscorrectioncriticalcritically
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We critically review recent claims that financial crashes can be predicted using the idea of log-periodic oscillations or by other methods inspired by the physics of critical phenomena. In particular, the October 1997 `correction' does not appear to be the accumulation point of a geometric series of local minima.

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