REVIEW
Correlation of the highest-energy cosmic rays with the positions of nearby active galactic nuclei
Astrophysics · Submitted 17 Dec 2007 · 74 references
Pith's verdict: The pre-registered confirmation is the real contribution here, and it holds; the one thing I'd push on is that the sequential boundary in Table 1 is calibrated in an unpublished internal note and the confirmation sits exactly on it.
T0 · AI review
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Referee report
The paper
The paper claims
The Pierre Auger Collaboration reports that cosmic rays above about $6×10^{19}$ eV arrive preferentially from directions within a few degrees of nearby active galactic nuclei, and that an a priori test on later data rejects isotropy at more
The reading
What carries the argument
The load-bearing device is the exposure-weighted binomial search with an a priori confirmation protocol. For a window of radius $ψ$ around each catalogue source, $p$ is the fraction of the observable sky so covered, weighted by the observatory's declination-dependent exposure; the probability that $k$ or more of $N$ isotropic events fall in such windows is the cumulative binomial $P=Σ_{j≥k} binom(N,j) p^j (1-p)^{N-j}$. Because $P_{min}$ from a scan is not itself a chance probability, the authors calibrate it against simulated isotropic event sets passed through the identical scan. The confirmation step adds a sequential design: a table of required $k_{min}$ versus $N$ derived from type I and type II error choices of $α=1%$ and $β=5%$, plus a Wald-style likelihood-ratio monitor. Two secondary instruments carry the interpretation: the angular-separation distribution to the nearest AGN, which shows a clear excess inside a few degrees and a deficit of correlating events at low galactic latitude, and the deflection estimate for protons in a regular galactic field, which comes out at a few degrees at 60 EeV and so matches the observed correlation scale.
Extended reading notes
Core claim
The central claim is that the highest-energy cosmic rays are not isotropic: their arrival directions correlate with the positions of relatively nearby AGN, with the correlation strongest for energies above 57 EeV and for AGN within roughly 71 Mpc. The exploratory scan over the 2004–May 2006 data gave a minimum binomial probability at $z_{max}=0.018$, $E_{th}=56$ EeV and $ψ=3.1°$, with 12 of 15 events correlated. The authors then froze those parameters and applied a sequential test to events recorded after 27 May 2006; on 25 May 2007 six of eight events correlated, satisfying the pre-declared threshold, and the independent set eventually contained 8 correlations among 13 events where 2.7 were expected. On the full 2004–August 2007 set the best-fit parameters shift slightly to $z_{max}=0.017$, $ψ=3.2°$, $E_{th}=57$ EeV, giving 20 of 27 events correlated against 5.6 expected, a binomial probability $P_{min}=4.6×10^{-9}$, and a scan-corrected chance probability of about $10^{-5}$ from simulated isotropic skies. The authors read this as evidence that the steepening of the spectrum near 57 EeV is the Greisen–Zatsepin–Kuz'min cutoff on extragalactic protons rather than an acceleration limit at the sources.
Load-bearing premise
The load-bearing premise is that the a priori confirmation is a genuine independent test: it uses the same observatory, the same collaboration and the same AGN catalogue as the exploratory scan, differing only in the dates of the events, so what it establishes is reproducibility within one pipeline rather than replication by an outside group.
Editorial extensions
If this is right
- If the correlation holds, the sources of the highest-energy cosmic rays are extragalactic and lie within a few tens of Mpc, so the observed spectral steepening near 57 EeV is propagation through the cosmic microwave background rather than a limit on how hard the accelerators can push.
- The observed correlation scale of a few degrees implies that primaries are mostly protons, unless magnetic fields outside the galactic disk are far weaker than usually assumed; heavy nuclei would be deflected much more.
- The doublet-to-singlet ratio among the 27 events implies a lower bound of roughly 61 distinct sources under an equal-luminosity assumption, so the signal is not the work of a handful of nearby objects.
- The absence of significant correlation with Abell, REFLEX and NORAS clusters and with a starburst catalogue, together with the paucity of events toward Virgo, argues against massive galaxy clusters as the dominant accelerators.
- Continued running should allow source identification: the angular offset of events from a single source should shrink in proportion to $1/E$, so an angle-versus-energy trend within a cluster of events would locate the source directly and probe the magnetic field along the line of sight.
Reading between the lines
- The independence claimed for the confirmation set is independence in time only: same instrument, same collaboration, same Véron-Cetty and Véron catalogue, and, per Appendix A, a slightly different reconstruction package for the final event list. A genuinely independent check would need a different observatory in the northern sky or a source catalogue built without the same selection effects.
- Because AGN trace the local large-scale structure, any catalogue of galaxies, starbursts or clusters within the same volume will correlate with the events almost as well; the paper's own likelihood comparison against the IRAS PSCz galaxy distribution makes this explicit. The result is therefore better read as 'sources trace local matter within the GZK horizon' than as 'AGN accelerate cosmic rays'.
- The catalogue's acknowledged incompleteness near the galactic plane cuts both ways: it weakens the measured correlation, but it also means the five non-correlating events at $|b|<12°$ cannot be counted as evidence against the model, so the effective sample supporting the claim is smaller than 27.
- An angle-versus-energy test on the Cen A region, where two events already sit within 3° of the nucleus and several more lie along the radio-lobe extension, is the cheapest near-term discriminator between a single nearby accelerator and a diffuse population of sources.
Original abstract
Data collected by the Pierre Auger Observatory provide evidence for anisotropy in the arrival directions of the cosmic rays with the highest energies, which are correlated with the positions of relatively nearby active galactic nuclei (AGN) \cite{science}. The correlation has maximum significance for cosmic rays with energy greater than ~ 6x10^{19}$ eV and AGN at a distance less than ~ 75 Mpc. We have confirmed the anisotropy at a confidence level of more than 99% through a test with parameters specified {\em a priori}, using an independent data set. The observed correlation is compatible with the hypothesis that cosmic rays with the highest energies originate from extra-galactic sources close enough so that their flux is not significantly attenuated by interaction with the cosmic background radiation (the Greisen-Zatsepin-Kuz'min effect). The angular scale of the correlation observed is a few degrees, which suggests a predominantly light composition unless the magnetic fields are very weak outside the thin disk of our galaxy. Our present data do not identify AGN as the sources of cosmic rays unambiguously, and other candidate sources which are distributed as nearby AGN are not ruled out. We discuss the prospect of unequivocal identification of individual sources of the highest-energy cosmic rays within a few years of continued operation of the Pierre Auger Observatory.
The compiled record
The paper's own sentences, arranged, kept beside the review and separate from it. Each label is drawn from a closed vocabulary; the number beside it is the probability the classifier gave that label. Numbers in the tables are the authors', checked by code. No sentence in this record was written by a model.
The abstract, sentence by sentence
Data collected by the Pierre Auger Observatory provide evidence for anisotropy in the arrival directions of the cosmic rays with the highest energies, which are correlated with the positions of relatively nearby active galactic nuclei (AGN) \cite{science}. The correlation has maximum significance for cosmic rays with energy greater than ~ 6x10^{19}$ eV and AGN at a distance less than ~ 75 Mpc. We have confirmed the anisotropy at a confidence level of more than 99% through a test with parameters specified {\em a priori}, using an independent data set. The observed correlation is compatible with the hypothesis that cosmic rays with the highest energies originate from extra-galactic sources close enough so that their flux is not significantly attenuated by interaction with the cosmic background radiation (the Greisen-Zatsepin-Kuz'min effect). The angular scale of the correlation observed is a few degrees, which suggests a predominantly light composition unless the magnetic fields are very weak outside the thin disk of our galaxy. Our present data do not identify AGN as the sources of cosmic rays unambiguously, and other candidate sources which are distributed as nearby AGN are not ruled out. We discuss the prospect of unequivocal identification of individual sources of the highest-energy cosmic rays within a few years of continued operation of the Pierre Auger Observatory.
background contribution method result interpretation main claim
| # | sentence | role | the authors' own work | states the main conclusion | strength |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| s0 | Data collected by the Pierre Auger Observatory provide evidence for anisotropy in the arrival directions of the cosmic rays with the highest energies, which are correlated with the positions of relatively nearby active galactic nuclei (AGN) \cite{science}. | result 0.98 | 0.87 | 0.90 | asserted 0.92 |
| s1 | The correlation has maximum significance for cosmic rays with energy greater than ~ 6x10^{19}$ eV and AGN at a distance less than ~ 75 Mpc. | result 1.00 | 0.88 | 0.20 | asserted 1.00 |
| s2 | We have confirmed the anisotropy at a confidence level of more than 99% through a test with parameters specified {\em a priori}, using an independent data set. | result 0.88 | 0.96 | 0.14 | asserted 1.00 |
| s3 | The observed correlation is compatible with the hypothesis that cosmic rays with the highest energies originate from extra-galactic sources close enough so that their flux is not significantly attenuated by interaction with the cosmic background radiation (the Greisen-Zatsepin-Kuz'min effect). | interpretation 1.00 | 0.56 | 0.21 | hedged possibility 1.00 |
| s4 | The angular scale of the correlation observed is a few degrees, which suggests a predominantly light composition unless the magnetic fields are very weak outside the thin disk of our galaxy. | interpretation 0.90 | 0.93 | 0.05 | hedged possibility 0.99 |
| s5 | Our present data do not identify AGN as the sources of cosmic rays unambiguously, and other candidate sources which are distributed as nearby AGN are not ruled out. | limitation 1.00 | 0.86 | 0.11 | asserted 0.83 |
| s6 | We discuss the prospect of unequivocal identification of individual sources of the highest-energy cosmic rays within a few years of continued operation of the Pierre Auger Observatory. | future work 1.00 | 0.33 | 0.05 | hedged possibility 0.63 |
What was examined, and what was not
- arXiv listing abstract v2
- full text
- figures and tables
- references and citing sentences
- relations to other papers
- P abstract
- S sections
- T body sentences
- C citations
- R cross-paper relations
Figures
Figures reproduced from arXiv:0712.2843 by the authors.
References
How later papers used it
74 later papers cite it
5 later papers by other authors are listed below: 5 used its data or values.
Uses its data or values 5 of 17 papers with this label
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Analyzed Auger data published during the preparation of its manuscript, using its correlation statistic.
Searching for a Correlation Between Cosmic-Ray Sources Above 10^{19} eV and Large-Scale Structure (2008) · 0.88 · paraphrased: the licence does not allow quoting
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Used the UHECR data reported by PAO in this paper for its statistical analysis of arrival directions.
Statistical Analysis of the Correlation between Active Galactic Nuclei and Ultra-High Energy Cosmic Rays (2010) · 1.00 · paraphrased: the licence does not allow quoting
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Took a conservative value for the primary mass, noting that a significant fraction of these primaries may well be protons as in this paper.
UHECR bounds on Lorentz violation in the photon sector (2008) · 0.91 · paraphrased: the licence does not allow quoting
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Showed in its table the values of the test statistics for the PAO data of this paper together with p-values.
Testing large-scale (an)isotropy of ultra-high energy cosmic rays (2008) · 0.99 · paraphrased: the licence does not allow quoting
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Used the appearance of UHECR with energy around 200 EeV reported in this paper to set a limit at the 2 sigma level, assuming a primary mass of 100 GeV.
The refractive index of the vacuum and the dark sector (2017) · 0.98 · paraphrased: the licence does not allow quoting
How the literature uses it
62 arXiv papers cite this in 151 sentences
Papers whose main result relates to this one's
States the same result 1 paper
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Using data collected at the Pierre Auger Observatory during the past 3.7 years, we demonstrated a correlation between the arrival directions of cosmic rays with energy above ~ 6x10^{19} electron volts and the positions of active galactic nuclei (AGN) lying within ~ 75 megaparsecs.
Correlation of the highest energy cosmic rays with nearby extragalactic objects · 1.00
States a conflicting result 1 paper
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None of the tests shows a statistically significant evidence of anisotropy.
Papers citing it · 108 sentences without a confident label
Contests it 1 paper
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In this paper we show that, given the data presented in Refs. [ref] , the AGN hypothesis is unlikely, and that there exist alternative interpretations of the observed correlation.
On the interpretation of the cosmic-ray anisotropy at ultra-high energies · Introduction · contest 0.82
Uses its method or tool 2 papers
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This fraction, called $p$ in Refs. [ref] , allows to estimate the probability of chance correlation in the nearest-neighbour approach simply by the binomial distribution, cf. Ref. [ref] .
Physical conditions in nearby active galaxies correlated with ultra-high-energy cosmic rays detected by the Pierre Auger Observatory · Nearest neighbour or correlation function? · 0.82
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This way of counting has been used previously in many literature [ref] .
Statistical Analysis of the Correlation between Active Galactic Nuclei and Ultra-High Energy Cosmic Rays · Correlational Angular Distance Distribution · 0.86
Uses its data or values 17 papers
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The last analysis of Refs. FRK-KlinkhamerRisse2008a,FRK-KlinkhamerRisse2008b is based on the following 29 selected UHECR events: 27 events from Auger–South [ref] , 1 event from Fly's Eye [ref] , and 1 event from AGASA [ref] .
UHECR bounds on Lorentz violation in the photon sector · Bounds on the LV photon parameters $κ^μν$ · 0.96
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For statistical analysis of arrival directions, we use the UHECR data reported by PAO [ref] and by AGASA [ref] .
Statistical Analysis of the Correlation between Active Galactic Nuclei and Ultra-High Energy Cosmic Rays · Arrival directions of UHECR · 1.00
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As shown in [ref] , the correlation sets in abruptly at an (Auger) threshold energy of about 57 EeV.
Ultra High-Energy Cosmic Ray Observations · Concluding Remarks · 0.93
Compares with it 2 papers
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This model is clearly less compatible with the observed correlation with the nearby AGN [ref] , unless the UHECR flux contribution from these objects (or objects with similar spatial distribution) is highly non-uniform.
Studies of the UHECR propagation in the Galactic Magnetic Field · Correlation scan using backtracked directions · 0.80
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The diffuse flux derived for FRI type radio galaxies is also shown in figure [ref] along with two predictions for the background flux of neutrinos from AGN's based on hadronic models with ultra high-energy protons [ref] and iron nuclei [ref] , respectively.
Neutrino production from photo-hadronic interactions of the gamma flux from Active Galactic Nuclei with their gas content · Diffuse neutrino flux from FRI galaxies · 1.00
Cites it as support 3 papers
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Since the knee energy of the cosmic ray energy spectrum implies a new mass scale in nature, according to the theory proposed by the present author in 1985, and the model predicted a correlation between high energy cosmic rays and AGN that was observed by the Pierre Auger Observatory [ref] , it seems natural to expect new physics at a mass scale of 3 PeV.
Search for a dark matter particle family · Mass spectra of the GLMR-RS supersymmetric theory · 0.97
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It is worthwhile to mention that this model has been supported by recent data from the Pierre Auger Observatory [ref] , which has found a possible correlation between the sources of high energy cosmic rays and AGN.
Ankle phenomenon in the cosmic ray energy spectrum · The 1985 model and its extension · 1.00
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Phenomenological descriptions or theoretical models of the highest energy cosmic ray sources, fitted [ref] using the latest Auger spectra, as well as the Auger data [ref] on the correlation between the origin of cosmic rays around the GZK cutoff and remote AGN, point to a significative proton fraction, of the order of at least 10%, and higher at super-GZK energies.
Astrophysical implications of hypothetical stable TeV-scale black holes · Black hole production by cosmic rays · 0.96
Cites it as background 8 papers
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Beginning with the report of the correlation between UHECR and active galactic nuclei (AGN) by the PAO collaboration [ref] , several attempts was made to identify the UHECR sources.
Centaurus A as a point source of Ultra-High Energy Cosmic Rays · Introduction · 0.89
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Statistical studies of correlation between the arrival directions of UHECR and the astrophysical objects was done in many ways [ref] .
Statistical Analysis of the Correlation between Active Galactic Nuclei and Ultra-High Energy Cosmic Rays · Introduction · 0.91
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High energy gamma rays from AGN have been reported by the Compton Observatory [ref] and by Cerenkov detectors [ref] , and high energy cosmic rays have been correlated with AGN [ref] .
High energy cosmic rays from AGN and the GZK cutoff · Introduction · 0.81
What it cites · 17 sentences without a confident label
Contests 2 papers
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Models where sources are located in the galactic halo are also ruled out, such as the decay of super-heavy dark matter particles [ref] , which are already highly constrained by the Auger limit on the fraction of photon primaries at high energies [ref] .
Constraints on top-down models for the origin of UHECRs from the Pierre Auger Observatory data · The acceleration sites · contest 0.86
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Models where sources are located in the galactic halo are also ruled out, such as the decay of super-heavy dark matter particles [ref] , which are already highly constrained by the Auger limit on the fraction of photon primaries at high energies [ref] .
Upper limit on the cosmic-ray photon flux above 10^19 eV using the surface detector of the Pierre Auger Observatory · The acceleration sites · contest 0.86
Uses the method or tool of 2 papers
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The shower size $S$, at a reference distance and zenith angle, is calculated from the signal detected in each surface station and then converted to energy using a linear calibration curve based on the fluorescence telescope measurements [ref] .
Measurement of the UHECR energy spectrum using data from the Surface Detector of the Pierre Auger Observatory · Data set · 1.00
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Since $p_1$ is not known, we integrate over $p<p_1<1$ to obtain the test ratio, $R$ as defined by Wald [ref]
Sequential Analysis Techniques for Correlation Studies in Particle Astronomy · Exploratory scan and anisotropy confirmation · 0.99
Uses data or values from 1 paper
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Arrival directions of cosmic rays are reconstructed by the SD array with an angular accuracy better than $1^∘$ above $10^19$ eV [ref] .
Reconstruction accuracy of the surface detector array of the Pierre Auger Observatory · Introduction · 0.83
Cites as background 1 paper
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Models of the regular component of the galactic magnetic field [ref] outline its basic features, but cannot be expected to provide a complete picture nor a realistic value for every direction.
Magnetic fields in our Galaxy: How much do we know? III. Progress in the last decade · Effect of the magnetic fields · 0.80
Discussion
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