Averages of ratios of the Riemann zeta-function and correlations of divisor sums

We establish a connection between the ratios conjecture for the Riemann zeta-function and a conjecture concerning correlations of convolutions of M\"{o}bius and divisor functions. Specifically, we prove that the ratios conjecture and an arithmetic correlations conjecture imply the same result. This provides new support for the ratios conjecture, which previously had been motivated by analogy with formulae in random matrix theory and by a heuristic recipe. Our main theorem generalises a recent calculation pertaining to the special case of two-over-two ratios.