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Coincident detection significance in multimessenger astronomy

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arxiv 1712.05392 v1 pith:UNC5S4CX submitted 2017-12-14 astro-ph.HE

Gregory Ashton , Eric Burns , Tito Dal Canton , Thomas Dent , Heinz-Bernd Eggenstein , Alex B. Nielsen , Reinhard Prix , Michal Was
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Sylvia J. Zhu
This is my paper · ORCID
classification astro-ph.HE
keywords commongravitational-wavesignalssourceastronomymodelmultimessengerunrelated
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We derive a Bayesian criterion for assessing whether signals observed in two separate data sets originate from a common source. The Bayes factor for a common vs. unrelated origin of signals includes an overlap integral of the posterior distributions over the common source parameters. Focusing on multimessenger gravitational-wave astronomy, we apply the method to the spatial and temporal association of independent gravitational-wave and electromagnetic (or neutrino) observations. As an example, we consider the coincidence between the recently discovered gravitational-wave signal GW170817 from a binary neutron star merger and the gamma-ray burst GRB 170817A: we find that the common source model is enormously favored over a model describing them as unrelated signals.

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Cited by 2 Pith papers

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    astro-ph.GA 2026-07 accept novelty 5.0 of 10

    S301's orbit and photometric mass satisfy the predicted relation for the captured companion of S5-HVS1, though catalog-level statistical evidence remains weak until the selection function is calibrated.

  2. Shape of U: Measuring the Curvature of the Universe with Gravitational Waves

    gr-qc 2026-06 unverdicted novelty 4.0 of 10

    Next-generation GW detector networks can constrain the spatial curvature parameter Ω_k to 1σ uncertainty of 0.029 using intermediate-mass binary black hole bright sirens.

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