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arxiv: 1906.09897 · v1 · pith:IYZV76WCnew · submitted 2019-06-19 · ❄️ cond-mat.soft · nlin.CD· physics.geo-ph

Interevent time distributions of avalanche dynamics

Pith reviewed 2026-05-25 20:13 UTC · model grok-4.3

classification ❄️ cond-mat.soft nlin.CDphysics.geo-ph
keywords intereventdistributionstimesystemsavalancheavalanchesdifferentduration
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The pith

Interevent time distributions distinguish mechanical states in avalanche systems and resemble earthquake statistics at high packing ratios.

A machine-rendered reading of the paper's core claim, the machinery that carries it, and where it could break.

Many physical systems show stick-slip motion that produces avalanches. Size and duration of these avalanches usually follow power-law distributions no matter the exact conditions. The paper instead looks at the waiting times between successive avalanches. Using granular packings and emulsion simulations, it shows that these waiting-time distributions change with packing density or confining pressure. Two systems can share the same size and duration statistics yet display clearly different interevent statistics. At high packing fractions the interevent distributions begin to look like those recorded for earthquakes. The authors interpret this as a sign of strong space-time correlations that size and duration measures miss. Therefore interevent times give a more sensitive probe of the underlying mechanical state.

Core claim

systems having the same probability distribution for avalanche size and duration can have different interevent time distributions. Remarkably, for large packing ratios, these interevent time distributions look similar to those for earthquakes and are indirect evidence of large space-time correlations in the system.

Load-bearing premise

The assumption that differences in interevent time distributions arise solely from volume fraction or confining pressure and are not artifacts of the specific experimental or simulation protocols used to prepare the systems.

read the original abstract

Physical systems characterized by stick-slip dynamics often display avalanches. Regardless of the diversity of their microscopic structure, these systems are governed by a power-law distribution of avalanche size and duration. Here we focus on the interevent times between avalanches and show that, unlike their distributions of size and duration, the interevent time distributions are able to distinguish different mechanical states of the system, characterized by different volume fractions or confining pressures. We use experiments on granular systems and numerical simulations of emulsions to show that systems having the same probability distribution for avalanche size and duration can have different interevent time distributions. Remarkably, for large packing ratios, these interevent time distributions look similar to those for earthquakes and are indirect evidence of large space-time correlations in the system. Our results therefore indicate that interevent time statistics are more informative to characterize the dynamics of avalanches.

Editorial analysis

A structured set of objections, weighed in public.

Desk editor's note, referee report, simulated authors' rebuttal, and a circularity audit. Tearing a paper down is the easy half of reading it; the pith above is the substance, this is the friction.

Axiom & Free-Parameter Ledger

0 free parameters · 0 axioms · 0 invented entities

Abstract-only review supplies no explicit free parameters, axioms, or invented entities; all such elements would be located in the full methods and analysis sections.

pith-pipeline@v0.9.0 · 5698 in / 1002 out tokens · 42320 ms · 2026-05-25T20:13:44.481895+00:00 · methodology

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