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On the coverage of neutralino dark matter in coannihilations at the upgraded LHC

T0 review · 4 major / 5 minor · reviewed 2026-08-14 · deepseek-v4-flash

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Pith's one-line read The paper projects that a 27 TeV HE-LHC with 15 ab^-1 can exclude neutralino dark matter up to 2.6 TeV in gluino coannihilation, 1.7 TeV in stop coannihilation, and 0.8 TeV in wino coannihilation at 2 sigma, while stau coannihilation…

desk verdict Competent HE-LHC projection for four coannihilation scenarios; the mass limits are optimistic because they are statistical-only, but the qualitative ordering is probably right. read the letter →

arxiv 1908.11350 v2 pith:CJ4OS36V submitted 2019-08-29 hep-ph hep-ex

Murat Abdughani , Lei Wu This is my paper · ORCID
classification hep-phhep-ex PACS 95.35.+d12.60.Jv
keywords neutralinodarkmattercoannihilationHE-LHCcompressedsupersymmetrygluinostopwinostau
topics Dark Matter
open problems Dark Matter
verification ladder T0 review T1 audit T2 compute T3 formal

The pith

A machine-rendered reading of the paper's core claim, the machinery that carries it, and where it could break.

The reading

The paper tries to establish that a 27 TeV High-Energy LHC with 15 $ab^{-1}$ of data could test most of the cosmologically allowed coannihilation windows for neutralino dark matter. In supersymmetric models, the relic abundance of a bino-like neutralino can be brought into agreement with observation when it is nearly degenerate with a gluino, stop, wino, or stau; the near degeneracy makes the decay products soft and the searches difficult. By simulating four dedicated search channels, the authors find 2-$\sigma$ exclusion reaches of 2.6 TeV, 1.7 TeV, and 0.8 TeV for gluino, stop, and wino coannihilation respectively, while stau coannihilation gives no reach. This matters because coannihilation is a leading way to make neutralino dark matter viable, and a positive result would let a collider discover the partner particle and thereby measure the dark matter mass.

What carries the argument

The machinery is the coannihilation strip together with ISR-boosted compressed searches. The strip is the set of points in the neutralino-mass versus partner-mass plane where the relic density is satisfied because a nearly degenerate partner, with mass splitting from a few GeV to about 100 GeV, participates in the freeze-out. To see the soft final states, each search requires a hard jet from initial-state radiation and then defines signal regions in variables such as the effective mass, missing transverse energy, dilepton invariant mass, and transverse mass; significance is evaluated as $Z=S/\sqrt{B}$ with background yields from a leading-order simulation.

What would settle it

Run one benchmark point in each channel through a full detector simulation with realistic tagging efficiencies and add a 10 percent systematic uncertainty on background yields; if the significance drops below 2 $\sigma$ for a gluino around $m_{\tilde g}=1.6$ TeV and a neutralino around $m_{\tilde\chi_1^0}=1.5$ TeV, the claimed 2.6 TeV reach is not robust.

Watch

Extended reading notes

Core claim

The paper's central claim is a set of projected 2-$\sigma$ exclusion limits for the neutralino dark matter mass in four coannihilation scenarios at the HE-LHC: 2.6 TeV in gluino coannihilation via multijets plus missing transverse energy, 1.7 TeV in stop coannihilation via monojets, and 0.8 TeV in wino coannihilation via a soft same-flavour lepton pair plus missing transverse energy, all at 15 $ab^{-1}$; stau coannihilation via a monojet plus one hadronic tau remains below 2 $\sigma$ even at that luminosity. The limits follow from first restricting each scenario to samples that reproduce the observed dark matter relic density within 2 $\sigma$, then simulating the compressed final states with initial-state-radiation jets to boost the soft system. The authors state that the stau failure is due to the small direct stau pair-production cross section and the low tagging efficiency for soft taus from stau decay.

Load-bearing premise

The load-bearing premise is that the background can be predicted well enough for $Z=S/\sqrt{B}$ to describe the real search; if systematic uncertainties in the background or detector effects are substantial, the quoted 2-$\sigma$ reaches shrink.

Editorial extensions

If this is right

  • At 27 TeV with 15 ab^-1, the gluino coannihilation strip can be excluded up to a neutralino mass of about 2.6 TeV at 2 sigma, with a 5-sigma discovery reach of about 2.2 TeV.
  • In stop coannihilation, the monojet search can exclude neutralino masses up to about 1.7 TeV at 2 sigma, with a 5-sigma reach below about 1.4 TeV at 15 ab^-1.
  • The soft-dilepton search for wino coannihilation extends the neutralino exclusion from roughly 180 GeV at the current LHC to about 560 GeV at 300 fb^-1 and 0.8 TeV at 15 ab^-1, both at 2 sigma.
  • Stau coannihilation remains out of reach at the HE-LHC: even at 15 ab^-1, no sample reaches 2 sigma, because stau pair production is weak and the soft tau from stau decay is poorly tagged.
  • If no excess is seen, the combination of these channels would rule out most of the relic-density-allowed gluino, stop, and wino coannihilation parameter space at the HE-LHC.

Reading between the lines

Editorial extensions of the paper, not claims the author makes directly.

  • Inference: Because the quoted significance neglects systematic uncertainties, the real HE-LHC reach could be materially lower; a robust projection should fold in correlated background systematics and pile-up effects, which the paper leaves to future work.
  • Inference: The stau blind spot means that if future data select stau coannihilation as the only surviving neutralino dark matter window, HE-LHC alone cannot close it; complementary probes such as lepton colliders, long-lived-particle searches, or improved soft-tau tagging would be needed.
  • Inference: The same ISR-boosted search logic could be applied to the HL-LHC at 14 TeV to give a lower but still meaningful reach, and to a 100 TeV collider to push the same strips to higher masses; neither extrapolation is made in the paper.
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Editorial analysis

A structured set of objections, weighed in public.

Desk editor's note, referee report, and a circularity audit.

Referee Report

4 major / 5 minor

Summary. This paper studies the reach of a 27 TeV HE-LHC with 15 ab^-1 of integrated luminosity for neutralino dark matter in bino-gluino, bino-stop, bino-wino, and bino-stau coannihilation scenarios within a simplified MSSM. The authors first select model points satisfying the Planck relic density, the measured Higgs mass, vacuum stability, and current LHC constraints using MicrOMEGAs and SUSY-HIT. They then simulate signal and background events with MG5_aMC@NLO, Pythia8, Delphes3.4.1, and CheckMATE, defining signal regions for multijet + missing transverse energy, monojet, soft same-flavor dilepton + missing transverse energy, and monojet + hadronic tau. Using a simple significance Z = S/sqrt(B), they report 2 sigma exclusion reaches of 2.6 TeV, 1.7 TeV, and 0.8 TeV for the neutralino mass in gluino, stop, and wino coannihilations, respectively, and no sensitivity in stau coannihilation. The paper acknowledges in the final paragraph of Section 3.4 that systematic uncertainties and pile-up are not modeled and would degrade the quoted significances.

Significance. If the quoted reach numbers were robust, the paper would provide a useful quantitative guide for HE-LHC SUSY searches in coannihilation scenarios, extending existing 13 TeV limits and identifying stau coannihilation as the most difficult channel. The methodology is a standard phenomenological projection chain using publicly available Monte Carlo tools, with a clear scan and constraint procedure for each scenario. The qualitative hierarchy of reach (gluino > stop > wino >> stau) is likely to survive more careful treatment, and the explicit caveats about systematics and pile-up are honest. However, the central quantitative claim is presented as exclusion reaches, and the analysis is statistical-only, with no systematic uncertainty budget, no high-pile-up modeling, and LO-only cross sections. The paper therefore needs revision before the specific TeV numbers can be taken as reliable projections.

major comments (4)
  1. [Abstract/Conclusions; Section 3, Z = S/sqrt(B)] The headline reach numbers, such as the 2.6, 1.7, and 0.8 TeV 2-sigma exclusions quoted in the abstract and conclusions, are computed with Z = S/sqrt(B) and no systematic uncertainties. The paper itself states in the final paragraph of Section 3.4 that 'the statistical significance will get degraded when systematic uncertainties are taken into account.' For the multijet and monojet searches at 27 TeV with 15 ab^-1, the background yields are large, and a moderate background systematic uncertainty of 10-20% can shift a 2-sigma exclusion by several hundred GeV in mass. Since the central claim of the paper is a set of quantitative mass limits, the analysis should either include a nuisance-parameter treatment with representative systematic uncertainties, or the abstract and conclusions should explicitly label all quoted reaches as statistical-only sensitivities rather than as exclusion projections.
  2. [Section 3, first paragraph] All signal and background cross sections are evaluated at leading order with MG5_aMC@NLO. For gluino pair production, which is gg-initiated, NLO QCD corrections and scale uncertainties are known to be sizable; stop pair production also receives non-negligible QCD corrections. Since the quoted reach numbers depend directly on signal and background normalizations, the absence of k-factors or scale/PDF uncertainty bands leaves the mass limits with an unquantified normalization error. At minimum, the authors should estimate the impact of NLO corrections to the signal cross sections, or state as an additional caveat that all reach numbers are LO-normalized.
  3. [Section 3.4, tau tagging bullet] The stau analysis assumes a flat 60% efficiency for hadronic tau tagging for taus with pT between 15 and 35 GeV. Realistic tau tagging efficiencies at such low pT are substantially lower and depend strongly on pT, and they are further degraded by the high pile-up expected at HE-LHC. The stau channel conclusion of 'no sensitivity' is one of the paper's quantitative results, so this assumption should be varied over a plausible range or replaced by a pT-dependent efficiency curve to demonstrate that the conclusion is robust.
  4. [Section 3.4, final paragraph] The paper correctly notes that pile-up effects are beyond its scope, but pile-up at 27 TeV (O(200) interactions per bunch crossing) directly affects the soft-lepton, soft-tau, and E_T^miss observables that drive all four analyses. The manuscript does not need a full detector simulation, but a quantitative statement of how the quoted reaches change under plausible E_T^miss resolution degradation or reconstruction efficiency losses is necessary if the abstract's 'excluded' language is retained. Without this, the reported mass limits are upper bounds on statistical-only sensitivity rather than robust exclusion projections.
minor comments (5)
  1. [Section 2, scan ranges] The scan ranges are formatted badly, e.g., '100 GeV < M 1, 3< 3 TeV' should presumably read '100 GeV < M1, M3 < 3 TeV', with similar problems in the stop, wino, and stau scan ranges. Please fix the notation.
  2. [Section 3.1 and Figure 8 captions] There are several typographical errors: 'enenrgy' in the multijet event-selection bullet, 'processs' in the gluino paragraph, and 'Events franction' in the Figure 8 caption. These should be corrected.
  3. [Reference [92]] Reference [92] is incomplete; it lists only the title and collaboration and lacks the journal, volume, article number, and arXiv identifier.
  4. [Section 3, Monte Carlo setup] The PDF set is written as 'NN23LO1'; this should be 'NNPDF23LO1' or another complete PDF set name to be unambiguous.
  5. [Section 3.3, transverse mass definition] The text refers to a transverse mass mT(l, nu_l) in the motivation, but the selection criteria use mT(l1, E_T^miss). Please define the variable used in the selection explicitly or reconcile the notation.

Circularity Check

0 steps flagged · score 0.0 of 10

No significant circularity: the HE-LHC coannihilation reach is a forward MC projection, with relic-density samples selected by independent calculations and no fitted input renamed as a prediction.

full rationale

The paper's central claim is a forward projection of the HE-LHC sensitivity to neutralino DM in gluino, stop, wino, and stau coannihilation scenarios. The derivation chain is: (1) generate MSSM model points in simplified scenarios; (2) compute relic density with the independent package MicrOMEGAs and impose Planck 2-sigma bounds; (3) impose Higgs-mass, vacuum-stability, and existing LHC constraints; (4) simulate signal and background with MG5_aMC@NLO, Pythia8, Delphes, and CheckMATE; (5) compute significance as Z = S/sqrt(B) and read off exclusion reaches. No step fits a parameter to the quantity it later 'predicts'. The quoted 2.6/1.7/0.8 TeV reaches are obtained from simulated event yields, not from the relic-density constraint or from any fitted input. The self-citations in the reference list are to prior phenomenology studies, analysis-strategy papers, and one vacuum-stability constraint calculation; none of these supplies a definition or a uniqueness theorem that forces the central reach result. The paper's explicit caveat that significance will degrade once systematic uncertainties are included is a limitation on the optimistic assumptions, not a circular reduction: Z = S/sqrt(B) with no systematics is stated openly and the quoted limits are conditional on that metric. Thus there is no exhibited equation or fitted parameter that makes the prediction equivalent to an input by construction.

Assumptions & free parameters 4 free parameters · 5 assumptions · 0 invented entities

The paper introduces no new particles, forces, or mediators. The central claim rests on external codes, a simplified MSSM setup, and hand-chosen analysis parameters; the most consequential ad hoc input is the systematic-free significance metric.

free parameters (4)
  • MSUSY common mass for other sparticles = 5 TeV
    All sparticles not relevant to a given coannihilation scenario are assigned a common mass, chosen by the authors rather than derived.
  • Tau tagging efficiency = 60%
    Assumed value for soft hadronic taus with pT between 15 and 35 GeV; affects the stau reach and is not benchmarked against a detector performance study.
  • MLM merging scale Q = 60 GeV
    Chosen for Z/W+jets parton-shower matching; the background yields and hence the significance depend on this choice.
  • Signal region cut thresholds = Tables 1, 2, 3
    Kinematic cuts such as pT(j1), meff, ETmiss/sqrt(HT), mll, and mTtau are chosen by hand to maximize S/sqrt(B), not derived from first principles.
assumptions (5)
  • standard math The coannihilation effective cross section formula (Eq. 2.2, from Griest and Seckel and the Coannihilation Codex) correctly describes the relic density when a partner particle is nearly degenerate with the neutralino.
    Borrowed from prior literature and used as the basis for the relic density constraint; not re-derived in this paper.
  • domain assumption MicrOMEGAs reliably computes the relic density and the LHC constraints are correctly evaluated with CheckMATE using CLs.
    The allowed parameter samples depend on these external codes; the paper does not cross-check their outputs against independent calculations.
  • domain assumption The simplified MSSM with only the relevant sparticles and all others decoupled at 5 TeV captures the phenomenology of each coannihilation scenario.
    This framework is stated in Section 2 and is standard for simplified-model studies, but it ignores potential contributions from other sparticles.
  • ad hoc to paper The statistical significance Z = S/sqrt(B) with zero systematic uncertainties is an appropriate metric for the quoted exclusion reaches.
    The authors acknowledge in Section 3.4 that systematic uncertainties would degrade the significance, so this is a knowingly optimistic modeling choice.
  • ad hoc to paper A flat 60% tau tagging efficiency applies uniformly to soft hadronic taus from stau decay.
    This value is assumed rather than derived from an ATLAS or CMS performance study, and it directly affects the stau coannihilation conclusion.

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Cite this review

Pith. "Pith review of On the coverage of neutralino dark matter in coannihilations at the upgraded LHC." pith.science (2026). https://pith.science/paper/CJ4OS36V

@misc{pith2026190811350,
  author       = {Pith},
  title        = {Pith review of: On the coverage of neutralino dark matter in coannihilations at the upgraded LHC},
  year         = {2026},
  howpublished = {\url{https://pith.science/paper/CJ4OS36V}},
  note         = {Machine review of arXiv:1908.11350}
}
abstract

In the supersymmetric models, the coannihilation of the neutralino DM with a lighter supersymmetric particle provides a feasible way to accommodate the observed cosmological DM relic density. Such a mechanism predicts a compressed spectrum of the neutralino DM and its coannihilating partner, which results in the soft final states and makes the searches for sparticles challenging at colliders. On the other hand, the abundance of the freeze-out neutralino DM usually increases as the DM mass becomes heavier. This implies an upper bound on the mass of the neutralino DM. Given these observations, we explore the HE-LHC coverage of the neutralino DM for the coannihilations. By analyzing the events of the multijet with the missing transverse energy ($E^{miss}_T$), the monojet, the soft lepton pair plus $E^{miss}_T$, and the monojet plus a hadronic tau, we find that the neutralino DM mass can be excluded up to 2.6, 1.7 and 0.8 TeV in the gluino, stop and wino coannihilations at the $2\sigma$ level, respectively. However, there is still no sensitivity of the neutralino DM in stau coannihilation at the HE-LHC, due to the small cross section of the direct stau pair production and the low tagging efficiency of soft tau from the stau decay.

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Forward citations

Cited by 1 Pith paper

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    In natural SUSY with Δ_EW<30, light bino-higgsino neutralinos are always subdominant dark matter (f≤0.02), and HL-LHC can probe the surviving parameter space.

Reference graph

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