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Fever and mobility data indicate social distancing has reduced incidence of communicable disease in the United States

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Paper breakdownThe authors' claims, conditions and measurements, as JSON Signed receiptProof this review has not been altered
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Parker Liautaud, Peter Huybers, Mauricio Santillana

Populations and Evolution · Submitted 21 Apr 2020

abstract compiled · 2026-09-23 · no language-model review

The authors' main claim These results indicate that social distancing has reduced the transmission of influenza like illnesses, including COVID 19, and support social distancing as an effective strategy for slowing the spread of COVID-19.

how it is stated · hedged possibility 0.79 read the record →

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arXiv ID2004.09911 (version 1)
Pith ID72Y4MG77, Pith's permanent record of this paper and its review
CitationMauricio Santillana, Parker Liautaud, Peter Huybers. "Fever and mobility data indicate social distancing has reduced incidence of communicable disease in the United States." arXiv:2004.09911 (2020). https://pith.science/paper/72Y4MG77
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The compiled record

The paper's own sentences, arranged. Each label is drawn from a closed vocabulary; the number beside it is the probability the classifier gave that label. Numbers in the tables are the authors', checked by code. No sentence in this record was written by a model.

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Compiled by classifier-1.13.0 via TypeSafe API, question bank abstract-p1-20260923, 2026-09-23: 1 request, 4,598 input tokens.

What the abstract itself states, as probabilities: claims first 0.04 · states limitation 0.76 · human participants 0.73 · controlled comparison 0.35 · randomized assignment 0.01 · states quantitative result 0.98 · compares with prior results 0.15 · mentions code or data availability 0.03.

The abstract, sentence by sentence

arXiv listing abstract v1. Results and the main claim are underlined; .

In March of 2020, many U.S. state governments encouraged or mandated restrictions on social interactions to slow the spread of COVID-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 that has spread to nearly 180 countries. Estimating the effectiveness of these social-distancing strategies is challenging because surveillance of COVID-19 has been limited, with tests generally being prioritized for high-risk or hospitalized cases according to temporally and regionally varying criteria. Here we show that reductions in mobility across U.S. counties with at least 100 confirmed cases of COVID-19 led to reductions in fever incidences, as captured by smart thermometers, after a mean lag of 6.5 days ($90\%$ within 3--10 days) that is consistent with the incubation period of COVID-19. Furthermore, counties with larger decreases in mobility subsequently achieved greater reductions in fevers ($p<0.01$), with the notable exception of New York City and its immediate vicinity. These results indicate that social distancing has reduced the transmission of influenza like illnesses, including COVID 19, and support social distancing as an effective strategy for slowing the spread of COVID-19.

background contribution method result interpretation main claim

What the classifier reports for each sentence. The number is the probability it gave the label.
#sentencerolethe authors' own workstates the main conclusionstrength
s0 In March of 2020, many U.S. state governments encouraged or mandated restrictions on social interactions to slow the spread of COVID-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 that has spread to nearly 180 countries. background 1.00 0.04 0.02 asserted 0.99
s1 Estimating the effectiveness of these social-distancing strategies is challenging because surveillance of COVID-19 has been limited, with tests generally being prioritized for high-risk or hospitalized cases according to temporally and regionally varying criteria. gap 0.64 0.07 0.01 asserted 1.00
s2 Here we show that reductions in mobility across U.S. counties with at least 100 confirmed cases of COVID-19 led to reductions in fever incidences, as captured by smart thermometers, after a mean lag of 6.5 days ($90\%$ within 3--10 days) that is consistent with the incubation period of COVID-19. result 0.99 0.96 0.32 asserted 0.99
s3 Furthermore, counties with larger decreases in mobility subsequently achieved greater reductions in fevers ($p<0.01$), with the notable exception of New York City and its immediate vicinity. result 1.00 0.94 0.10 asserted 1.00
s4 These results indicate that social distancing has reduced the transmission of influenza like illnesses, including COVID 19, and support social distancing as an effective strategy for slowing the spread of COVID-19. interpretation 1.00 0.74 0.94 hedged possibility 0.79

What kind of paper the classifier reports this is: empirical study 1.00 · evidence from analysis of existing data 0.94.

What was examined, and what was not

sources read
  • arXiv listing abstract v1
not examined
  • full text
  • figures and tables
  • references and citing sentences
  • relations to other papers
levels run
  • P abstract
not run
  • S sections
  • T body sentences
  • C citations
  • R cross-paper relations

Every quoted sentence on this record is the authors'. Every label is from Pith's closed vocabulary, with the probability shown beside it. Every number in the measurements table is the authors', checked by code. Record as JSON

The paper
Original abstract

In March of 2020, many U.S. state governments encouraged or mandated restrictions on social interactions to slow the spread of COVID-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 that has spread to nearly 180 countries. Estimating the effectiveness of these social-distancing strategies is challenging because surveillance of COVID-19 has been limited, with tests generally being prioritized for high-risk or hospitalized cases according to temporally and regionally varying criteria. Here we show that reductions in mobility across U.S. counties with at least 100 confirmed cases of COVID-19 led to reductions in fever incidences, as captured by smart thermometers, after a mean lag of 6.5 days ($90\%$ within 3--10 days) that is consistent with the incubation period of COVID-19. Furthermore, counties with larger decreases in mobility subsequently achieved greater reductions in fevers ($p<0.01$), with the notable exception of New York City and its immediate vicinity. These results indicate that social distancing has reduced the transmission of influenza like illnesses, including COVID 19, and support social distancing as an effective strategy for slowing the spread of COVID-19.

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Each citing sentence is taken from the citing paper's LaTeX source and typed by Pith's classifier. A label appears at probability 0.8 or more (0.95 for support), a contest at 0.7 or more; the quoted words are the citing authors'. How each label was checked · JSON

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