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A stochastic time-delayed model for the effectiveness of Moroccan COVID-19 deconfinement strategy

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Houssine Zine, Adnane Boukhouima, El Mehdi Lotfi, Marouane Mahrouf, Delfim F. M. Torres, Noura Yousfi

Populations and Evolution · Submitted 28 Oct 2020

abstract compiled · 2026-09-23 · no language-model review

The authors' main claim Based on the large number theorem for martingales, we discuss the extinction of the disease under an appropriate threshold parameter.

how it is stated · asserted 0.94 read the record →

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arXiv ID2010.16265 (version 1)
Pith IDFIKAQHRU, Pith's permanent record of this paper and its review
CitationAdnane Boukhouima, Delfim F. M. Torres, El Mehdi Lotfi, Houssine Zine, Marouane Mahrouf, Noura Yousfi. "A stochastic time-delayed model for the effectiveness of Moroccan COVID-19 deconfinement strategy." arXiv:2010.16265 (2020). https://pith.science/paper/FIKAQHRU
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Compiled by classifier-1.13.0 via TypeSafe API, question bank abstract-p1-20260923, 2026-09-23: 1 request, 6,893 input tokens.

What the abstract itself states, as probabilities: claims first 0.04 · states limitation 0.10 · human participants 0.08 · controlled comparison 0.06 · randomized assignment 0.01 · states quantitative result 0.09 · compares with prior results 0.08 · mentions code or data availability 0.02.

The abstract, sentence by sentence

arXiv listing abstract v1. Results and the main claim are underlined; .

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) poses a great threat to public health and the economy worldwide. Currently, COVID-19 evolves in many countries to a second stage, characterized by the need for the liberation of the economy and relaxation of the human psychological effects. To this end, numerous countries decided to implement adequate deconfinement strategies. After the first prolongation of the established confinement, Morocco moves to the deconfinement stage on May 20, 2020. The relevant question concerns the impact on the COVID-19 propagation by considering an additional degree of realism related to stochastic noises due to the effectiveness level of the adapted measures. In this paper, we propose a delayed stochastic mathematical model to predict the epidemiological trend of COVID-19 in Morocco after the deconfinement. To ensure the well-posedness of the model, we prove the existence and uniqueness of a positive solution. Based on the large number theorem for martingales, we discuss the extinction of the disease under an appropriate threshold parameter. Moreover, numerical simulations are performed in order to test the efficiency of the deconfinement strategies chosen by the Moroccan authorities to help the policy makers and public health administration to make suitable decisions in the near future.

background contribution method result interpretation main claim

What the classifier reports for each sentence. The number is the probability it gave the label.
#sentencerolethe authors' own workstates the main conclusionstrength
s0 Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) poses a great threat to public health and the economy worldwide. background 1.00 0.03 0.02 asserted 1.00
s1 Currently, COVID-19 evolves in many countries to a second stage, characterized by the need for the liberation of the economy and relaxation of the human psychological effects. background 1.00 0.04 0.02 asserted 1.00
s2 To this end, numerous countries decided to implement adequate deconfinement strategies. background 1.00 0.04 0.02 asserted 1.00
s3 After the first prolongation of the established confinement, Morocco moves to the deconfinement stage on May 20, 2020. background 1.00 0.10 0.02 asserted 1.00
s4 The relevant question concerns the impact on the COVID-19 propagation by considering an additional degree of realism related to stochastic noises due to the effectiveness level of the adapted measures. gap 0.68 0.10 0.04 unclear 0.87
s5 In this paper, we propose a delayed stochastic mathematical model to predict the epidemiological trend of COVID-19 in Morocco after the deconfinement. contribution 0.88 0.94 0.08 asserted 0.97
s6 To ensure the well-posedness of the model, we prove the existence and uniqueness of a positive solution. method 0.49 0.96 0.04 asserted 1.00
s7 Based on the large number theorem for martingales, we discuss the extinction of the disease under an appropriate threshold parameter. result 0.46 0.93 0.17 asserted 0.94
s8 Moreover, numerical simulations are performed in order to test the efficiency of the deconfinement strategies chosen by the Moroccan authorities to help the policy makers and public health administration to make suitable decisions in the near future. method 0.40 0.94 0.16 asserted 0.90

What kind of paper the classifier reports this is: theoretical result 0.93 · evidence from simulation or computation 0.65.

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  • references and citing sentences
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  • C citations
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Every quoted sentence on this record is the authors'. Every label is from Pith's closed vocabulary, with the probability shown beside it. Every number in the measurements table is the authors', checked by code. Record as JSON

The paper
Original abstract

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) poses a great threat to public health and the economy worldwide. Currently, COVID-19 evolves in many countries to a second stage, characterized by the need for the liberation of the economy and relaxation of the human psychological effects. To this end, numerous countries decided to implement adequate deconfinement strategies. After the first prolongation of the established confinement, Morocco moves to the deconfinement stage on May 20, 2020. The relevant question concerns the impact on the COVID-19 propagation by considering an additional degree of realism related to stochastic noises due to the effectiveness level of the adapted measures. In this paper, we propose a delayed stochastic mathematical model to predict the epidemiological trend of COVID-19 in Morocco after the deconfinement. To ensure the well-posedness of the model, we prove the existence and uniqueness of a positive solution. Based on the large number theorem for martingales, we discuss the extinction of the disease under an appropriate threshold parameter. Moreover, numerical simulations are performed in order to test the efficiency of the deconfinement strategies chosen by the Moroccan authorities to help the policy makers and public health administration to make suitable decisions in the near future.

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9 arXiv papers cite this in 11 sentences

Each citing sentence is taken from the citing paper's LaTeX source and typed by Pith's classifier. A label appears at probability 0.8 or more (0.95 for support), a contest at 0.7 or more; the quoted words are the citing authors'. How each label was checked · JSON

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