Insights into the Milky Way pulsar--black hole population using radio and gravitational wave observations

Duncan Lorimer; Maura McLaughlin; Nihan Pol

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Insights into the Milky Way pulsar--black hole population using radio and gravitational wave observations

Nihan Pol, Maura McLaughlin, Duncan Lorimer

High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena · Submitted 9 Sep 2021

abstract compiled · 2026-09-23 · no language-model review

The authors' main claim We find there to be $\left< N_{\rm obs, NSBH, e} \right> = 2^{+5}_{-1}$ and $\left< N_{\rm obs, NSBH, p} \right> = 6^{+7}_{-4}$ detectable PSR--BH systems in the Milky Way corresponding to the event-based and population-based merger detection rates estimated by LIGO-Virgo respectively.

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arXiv ID2109.04512 (version 1)

Pith ID76L4FEVN, Pith's permanent record of this paper and its review

CitationDuncan Lorimer, Maura McLaughlin, Nihan Pol. "Insights into the Milky Way pulsar--black hole population using radio and gravitational wave observations." arXiv:2109.04512 (2021). https://pith.science/paper/76L4FEVN

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Compiled by classifier-1.13.0 via TypeSafe API, question bank abstract-p1-20260923, 2026-09-23: 1 request, 6,729 input tokens.

What the abstract itself states, as probabilities: claims first 0.85 · states limitation 0.71 · human participants 0.02 · controlled comparison 0.08 · randomized assignment 0.01 · states quantitative result 0.99 · compares with prior results 0.92 · mentions code or data availability 0.02.

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arXiv listing abstract v1. Results and the main claim are underlined; show every role.

The detection of two NS--BH mergers by LIGO-Virgo provided the first direct confirmation of the existence of this type of system in the Universe. These detections also imply the existence of pulsar--black hole (PSR--BH) systems. In this analysis, we use the non-detection of any PSR--BH systems in current radio surveys to estimate a 95\% upper limit of $\sim$150 PSR--BH binary systems that are beaming towards the Earth in the Milky Way. This corresponds to a 95\% upper limit of $\mathcal{R}_{\rm LIGO} = 7.6$~yr$^{-1}$ on the merger detection rate for the LIGO-Virgo network scaled to a range distance of 100~Mpc, which is consistent with the rates derived by LIGO-Virgo. In addition, for the first time, we use the merger detection rates estimate by LIGO-Virgo to predict the number of detectable PSR--BH systems in the Milky Way. We find there to be $\left< N_{\rm obs, NSBH, e} \right> = 2^{+5}_{-1}$ and $\left< N_{\rm obs, NSBH, p} \right> = 6^{+7}_{-4}$ detectable PSR--BH systems in the Milky Way corresponding to the event-based and population-based merger detection rates estimated by LIGO-Virgo respectively. We estimate the probability of detecting these PSR--BH systems with current radio pulsar surveys, showing that the Arecibo PALFA survey has the highest probability of detecting a PSR--BH system, while surveys with recently commissioned and planned telescopes are almost guaranteed to detect one of these systems. Finally, we discuss the hurdles in detecting PSR--BH systems and how these can be overcome in the future.

background contribution method result interpretation main claim

What the classifier reports for each sentence. The number is the probability it gave the label.
#	sentence	role	the authors' own work	states the main conclusion	strength
s0	The detection of two NS--BH mergers by LIGO-Virgo provided the first direct confirmation of the existence of this type of system in the Universe.	background 1.00	0.05	0.04	asserted 1.00
s1	These detections also imply the existence of pulsar--black hole (PSR--BH) systems.	background 0.63	0.10	0.06	hedged possibility 0.55
s2	In this analysis, we use the non-detection of any PSR--BH systems in current radio surveys to estimate a 95\% upper limit of $\sim$150 PSR--BH binary systems that are beaming towards the Earth in the Milky Way.	result 0.66	0.94	0.48	asserted 0.99
s3	This corresponds to a 95\% upper limit of $\mathcal{R}_{\rm LIGO} = 7.6$~yr$^{-1}$ on the merger detection rate for the LIGO-Virgo network scaled to a range distance of 100~Mpc, which is consistent with the rates derived by LIGO-Virgo.	result 0.92	0.80	0.17	asserted 0.68
s4	In addition, for the first time, we use the merger detection rates estimate by LIGO-Virgo to predict the number of detectable PSR--BH systems in the Milky Way.	contribution 0.96	0.92	0.08	asserted 0.99
s5	We find there to be $\left< N_{\rm obs, NSBH, e} \right> = 2^{+5}_{-1}$ and $\left< N_{\rm obs, NSBH, p} \right> = 6^{+7}_{-4}$ detectable PSR--BH systems in the Milky Way corresponding to the event-based and population-based merger detection rates estimated by LIGO-Virgo respectively.	result 1.00	0.96	0.28	asserted 1.00
s6	We estimate the probability of detecting these PSR--BH systems with current radio pulsar surveys, showing that the Arecibo PALFA survey has the highest probability of detecting a PSR--BH system, while surveys with recently commissioned and planned telescopes are almost guaranteed to detect one of these systems.	result 0.96	0.95	0.16	asserted 0.99
s7	Finally, we discuss the hurdles in detecting PSR--BH systems and how these can be overcome in the future.	future work 0.99	0.60	0.04	unclear 0.79

What kind of paper the classifier reports this is: theoretical result 0.77 · evidence from analysis of existing data 0.98.

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Every quoted sentence on this record is the authors'. Every label is from Pith's closed vocabulary, with the probability shown beside it. Every number in the measurements table is the authors', checked by code. Record as JSON

The paper

Original abstract

The detection of two NS--BH mergers by LIGO-Virgo provided the first direct confirmation of the existence of this type of system in the Universe. These detections also imply the existence of pulsar--black hole (PSR--BH) systems. In this analysis, we use the non-detection of any PSR--BH systems in current radio surveys to estimate a 95\% upper limit of $\sim$150 PSR--BH binary systems that are beaming towards the Earth in the Milky Way. This corresponds to a 95\% upper limit of $\mathcal{R}_{\rm LIGO} = 7.6$~yr$^{-1}$ on the merger detection rate for the LIGO-Virgo network scaled to a range distance of 100~Mpc, which is consistent with the rates derived by LIGO-Virgo. In addition, for the first time, we use the merger detection rates estimate by LIGO-Virgo to predict the number of detectable PSR--BH systems in the Milky Way. We find there to be $\left< N_{\rm obs, NSBH, e} \right> = 2^{+5}_{-1}$ and $\left< N_{\rm obs, NSBH, p} \right> = 6^{+7}_{-4}$ detectable PSR--BH systems in the Milky Way corresponding to the event-based and population-based merger detection rates estimated by LIGO-Virgo respectively. We estimate the probability of detecting these PSR--BH systems with current radio pulsar surveys, showing that the Arecibo PALFA survey has the highest probability of detecting a PSR--BH system, while surveys with recently commissioned and planned telescopes are almost guaranteed to detect one of these systems. Finally, we discuss the hurdles in detecting PSR--BH systems and how these can be overcome in the future.

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References

Forward citations

Cited by 2 Pith papers

Reviewed papers in the Pith corpus that reference this work. Sorted by Pith novelty score. Full citation record

Causal self-consistency of the Blandford--McKee self-similar solution
astro-ph.HE 2026-08 conditional novelty 7.0 of 10

The Blandford-McKee blast-wave solution near the shock is causally protected for shallow density profiles by its characteristic structure, and for steep profiles by a new cooling solution ending in an inner sonic point.
Empirical determination of the Galactic neutron star--black hole merger rate using StarTrack models
astro-ph.HE 2026-09 conditional novelty 5.0 of 10

Using two StarTrack stellar evolution models and the absence of any radio-detected pulsar-black hole binary, the authors set a 95% upper limit on the Galactic NSBH merger rate of 4.3 per million years.

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4 arXiv papers cite this in 4 sentences

Each citing sentence is taken from the citing paper's LaTeX source and typed by Pith's classifier. A label appears at probability 0.8 or more (0.95 for support), a contest at 0.7 or more; the quoted words are the citing authors'. How each label was checked · JSON

Papers citing it · 3 sentences without a confident label

Uses its data or values 1 paper

Using information from the NS-BH GW events and radio pulsar (PSR) surveys in which no PSR-BH has been observed, [ref] derived an upper limit (95% CL) of $∼150$ PSR-BHs in our galaxy with the beaming direction to the Earth.

Constraints on Population I/II neutron star-black hole binary formation by gravitational wave and radio observations · Introduction · 0.83

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