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Measurements of the Hubble Constant with a Two Rung Distance Ladder: Two Out of Three Ain't Bad
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abstract
The three rung distance ladder, which calibrates Type Ia supernovae through stellar distances linked to geometric measurements, provides the highest precision direct measurement of the Hubble constant. In light of the Hubble tension, it is important to test the individual components of the distance ladder. For this purpose, we report a measurement of the Hubble constant from 35 extragalactic Cepheid hosts measured by the SH0ES team, using their distances and redshifts at cz < 3300 km /s , instead of any, more distant Type Ia supernovae, to measure the Hubble flow. The Cepheid distances are calibrated geometrically in the Milky Way, NGC 4258, and the Large Magellanic Cloud. Peculiar velocities are a significant source of systematic uncertainty at z $\sim$ 0.01, and we present a formalism for both mitigating and quantifying their effects, making use of external reconstructions of the density and velocity fields in the nearby universe. We identify a significant source of uncertainty originating from different assumptions about the selection criteria of this sample, whether distance or redshift limited, as it was assembled over three decades. Modeling these assumptions yields central values ranging from H0 = 71.8 to 77.0 km/s/Mpc. Combining the four best fitting selection models yields H0 = 73.1 (+2.6/-2.3) km/s/Mpc as a fiducial result, at $2.6\sigma$ tension with Planck. While Type Ia supernovae are essential for a precise measurement of H0, unknown systematics in these supernovae are unlikely to be the source of the Hubble tension
Forward citations
Cited by 4 Pith papers
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Hubble tension: the shape wall
Late-time modifications to the expansion history can raise H0 by at most about 2% (conservative) to 3.7% (permissive) if the CMB acoustic scale is fixed.
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Selection effects in correlated observations with application to distance-ladder observations
Residual correlated-selection effects are weakly detected (1.2–1.9σ) in Cepheid photometry and can shift the distance-ladder Hubble constant down by 0.7–1.1 km/s/Mpc.
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Hubble tension: a short review of theoretical explanations
A comprehensive review finds no theoretical Hubble-tension solution yet passes all consistency tests; new early-dark-energy chains reach high H0 only when the SH0ES calibration is added.
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The Hubble tension: A decade review
Pure early or late fixes to the Hubble tension are tightly constrained; remaining options are combined early-late interacting dark energy or new physics at the local-to-homogeneous transition.
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