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What it takes to solve the Hubble tension through modifications of cosmological recombination
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abstract
We construct data-driven solutions to the Hubble tension which are perturbative modifications to the fiducial $\Lambda$CDM cosmology, using the Fisher bias formalism. Taking as proof of principle the case of a time-varying electron mass and fine structure constant, and focusing first on Planck CMB data, we demonstrate that a modified recombination can solve the Hubble tension and lower $S_8$ to match weak lensing measurements. Once baryonic acoustic oscillation and uncalibrated supernovae data are included, however, it is not possible to fully solve the tension with perturbative modifications to recombination.
Forward citations
Cited by 8 Pith papers
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A selected modified recombination history fitted to Planck and DESI data raises the inferred Hubble constant to about 71 km/s/Mpc, reducing the SH0ES tension to below 2 sigma; a smooth four-parameter shape captures mu...
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SdSDE dark energy yields a ~0.16–0.21 eV positive neutrino-mass preference with DESI+ACT data, but χ² strongly favors extended ΛCDM and the shift is likely compensation.
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Pure early or late fixes to the Hubble tension are tightly constrained; remaining options are combined early-late interacting dark energy or new physics at the local-to-homogeneous transition.
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