Personalised Decision-Making without Counterfactuals

A. Philip Dawid; Stephen Senn

Personalised Decision-Making without Counterfactuals

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arxiv 2301.11976 v2 pith:FZZ3HTNT submitted 2023-01-27 stat.ME math.STstat.TH

A. Philip Dawid , Stephen Senn This is my paper

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keywords approachpersonalisedarguearticlecontrastcounterfactualsdangerouslydecision

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This article is a response to recent proposals by Pearl and others for a new approach to personalised treatment decisions, in contrast to the traditional one based on statistical decision theory. We argue that this approach is dangerously misguided and should not be used in practice.

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Cited by 1 Pith paper

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Individual Treatment Effect: Prediction Intervals and Sharp Bounds
stat.ME 2025-06 conditional novelty 6.0 of 10

Valid prediction intervals for individual treatment effects from large RCTs are trivial unless response rates are extreme, and sharp pmf bounds are given by sums of Fréchet cell bounds.

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