Flashlights: Transients among Gravitationally-Lensed Star Clusters in the Dragon Arc. I. Stellar Microlensing vs Stellar Outbursts

We report the discovery of transients among star clusters in a distant galaxy that is gravitationally lensed by a foreground galaxy cluster, and explore whether these transients correspond to: (i) intrinsic variations associated with stellar outbursts; or (ii) extrinsic variations imposed through microlensing by intraclusters stars along, perhaps, with primordial black holes. From images at two epochs separated by nearly a year, we discovered ten such transients -- displaying brightness variations of $\sim$10\%--20\% -- among 55 persistent knots identified as young star clusters in the Dragon arc. Two of these transients are associated with a triply-lensed star cluster, permitting a test of intrinsic variability by checking whether their light variations are repeated among the different lensed counterparts with a suitable time delay given their different light arrival times at the observer. Despite considerable care in constructing a lens model for Abell 370 that is optimized at the Dragon arc, we found that the predicted lensing magnifications are not sufficiently accurate to provide a definitive test of intrinsic variability based only on two images -- although such a test will become feasible as more observations are made. On the other hand, we perform simulations demonstrating that the observed level of brightness variations, as well as the observed transient event rate, can be explained entirely by stellar microlensing: as stars in the background star cluster move across the sky relative to intracluster stars, changes in their individual brightnesses can result in an overall change in the brightness of their parent star cluster.