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arxiv: 2407.14781 · v3 · submitted 2024-07-20 · 🧮 math.ST · cs.NA· math.AP· math.NA· math.PR· stat.TH

Bernstein-von Mises theorems for time evolution equations

classification 🧮 math.ST cs.NAmath.APmath.NAmath.PRstat.TH
keywords gaussianequationsfunctionpartialalignconditionsinitialmeasure
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We consider a class of infinite-dimensional dynamical systems driven by non-linear parabolic partial differential equations with initial condition $\theta$ modelled by a Gaussian process `prior' probability measure. Given discrete samples of the state of the system evolving in space-time, one obtains updated `posterior' measures on a function space containing all possible trajectories. We give a general set of conditions under which these non-Gaussian posterior distributions are approximated, in Wasserstein distance for the supremum-norm metric, by the law of a Gaussian random function. We demonstrate the applicability of our results to periodic non-linear reaction diffusion equations \begin{align*} \frac{\partial}{\partial t} u - \Delta u &= f(u) \\ u(0) &= \theta \end{align*} where $f$ is any smooth and compactly supported reaction function. In this case the limiting Gaussian measure can be characterised as the solution of a time-dependent Schr\"odinger equation with `rough' Gaussian initial conditions whose covariance operator we describe.

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  1. Data assimilation with the 2D Navier-Stokes equations: Optimal Gaussian asymptotics for the posterior measure

    math.ST 2025-07 unverdicted novelty 7.0

    Proves functional Bernstein-von Mises theorem establishing Gaussian asymptotics in supremum norm for posteriors arising from Gaussian-process priors on initial data in 2D Navier-Stokes data assimilation.