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How has the war in Ukraine affected Russian sentiments?

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Mikael Elinder, Oscar Erixson, Olle Hammar

General Economics · Submitted 1 Oct 2024

abstract compiled · 2026-09-23 · no language-model review

The authors' main claim Taken together, our results suggest strong public support for the war, except among Russians abroad who became more critical of Putin in line with global views.

how it is stated · hedged possibility 0.88 read the record →

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arXiv ID2410.00663 (version 2)
Pith IDCIBU7TWG, Pith's permanent record of this paper and its review
CitationMikael Elinder, Olle Hammar, Oscar Erixson. "How has the war in Ukraine affected Russian sentiments?." arXiv:2410.00663 (2024). https://pith.science/paper/CIBU7TWG
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The paper's own sentences, arranged. Each label is drawn from a closed vocabulary; the number beside it is the probability the classifier gave that label. Numbers in the tables are the authors', checked by code. No sentence in this record was written by a model.

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Compiled by classifier-1.13.0 via TypeSafe API, question bank abstract-p1-20260923, 2026-09-23: 1 request, 4,282 input tokens.

What the abstract itself states, as probabilities: claims first 0.03 · states limitation 0.25 · human participants 0.79 · controlled comparison 0.49 · randomized assignment 0.02 · states quantitative result 0.14 · compares with prior results 0.16 · mentions code or data availability 0.02.

The abstract, sentence by sentence

arXiv listing abstract v2. Results and the main claim are underlined; .

Using individual-level data from Gallup World Poll and the Levada Center, we provide an in-depth analysis of how Russia's invasion of Ukraine has affected sentiments in the Russian population. Our results show that after the invasion, a larger share of Russians expressed support for President Putin, optimism about the future, anti-West attitudes, and lower migration aspirations. The 2022 mobilization and the 2023 Wagner rebellion had only short-lived and no effects on sentiments, respectively. Regions with low pre-war support for Putin displayed stronger rally effects, higher casualty rates, and increased incomes, suggesting a recruitment strategy that maximizes political support. Taken together, our results suggest strong public support for the war, except among Russians abroad who became more critical of Putin in line with global views.

background contribution method result interpretation main claim

What the classifier reports for each sentence. The number is the probability it gave the label.
#sentencerolethe authors' own workstates the main conclusionstrength
s0 Using individual-level data from Gallup World Poll and the Levada Center, we provide an in-depth analysis of how Russia's invasion of Ukraine has affected sentiments in the Russian population. contribution 0.81 0.88 0.03 asserted 0.58
s1 Our results show that after the invasion, a larger share of Russians expressed support for President Putin, optimism about the future, anti-West attitudes, and lower migration aspirations. result 1.00 0.96 0.56 asserted 1.00
s2 The 2022 mobilization and the 2023 Wagner rebellion had only short-lived and no effects on sentiments, respectively. result 1.00 0.90 0.06 asserted 1.00
s3 Regions with low pre-war support for Putin displayed stronger rally effects, higher casualty rates, and increased incomes, suggesting a recruitment strategy that maximizes political support. result 0.73 0.86 0.09 hedged possibility 0.84
s4 Taken together, our results suggest strong public support for the war, except among Russians abroad who became more critical of Putin in line with global views. interpretation 0.87 0.91 0.78 hedged possibility 0.88

What kind of paper the classifier reports this is: empirical study 1.00 · evidence from analysis of existing data 1.00.

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Every quoted sentence on this record is the authors'. Every label is from Pith's closed vocabulary, with the probability shown beside it. Every number in the measurements table is the authors', checked by code. Record as JSON

The paper
Original abstract

Using individual-level data from Gallup World Poll and the Levada Center, we provide an in-depth analysis of how Russia's invasion of Ukraine has affected sentiments in the Russian population. Our results show that after the invasion, a larger share of Russians expressed support for President Putin, optimism about the future, anti-West attitudes, and lower migration aspirations. The 2022 mobilization and the 2023 Wagner rebellion had only short-lived and no effects on sentiments, respectively. Regions with low pre-war support for Putin displayed stronger rally effects, higher casualty rates, and increased incomes, suggesting a recruitment strategy that maximizes political support. Taken together, our results suggest strong public support for the war, except among Russians abroad who became more critical of Putin in line with global views.

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