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REVIEW 4 major objections 5 minor 62 references

Evidence of potential thermospheric overcooling during the May 2024 geomagnetic superstorm

T0 review · 4 major / 5 minor · reviewed 2026-08-12 · deepseek-v4-flash

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Pith's one-line read The May 2024 geomagnetic superstorm produced a rare post-storm thermospheric overcooling, with Swarm-C measuring a 23% density depletion on May 12 despite rising solar EUV, likely driven by record nitric-oxide infrared cooling.

desk verdict A real and well-documented density undershoot for the May 2024 superstorm, but the paper doesn't quantitatively close the case that NO radiative cooling caused it—Joule heating for this event is never computed. read the letter →

arxiv 2411.14071 v2 pith:R2RC3SIW submitted 2024-11-21 physics.space-ph

Alok Kumar Ranjan , Dayakrishna Nailwal , MV Sunil Krishna , Akash Kumar , Sumanta Sarkhel This is my paper · ORCID
classification physics.space-ph
keywords thermosphericovercoolingnitricoxideradiativecoolinggeomagneticsuperstormdensitydepletionSwarmsatellitesTIMED/SABERHalloweenstormssolarEUV
verification ladder T0 review T1 audit T2 compute T3 formal

The pith

A machine-rendered reading of the paper's core claim, the machinery that carries it, and where it could break.

The reading

The paper argues that the May 2024 geomagnetic superstorm, the strongest of solar cycle 25, caused a rare post-storm overcooling of the upper atmosphere, an event previously documented only during the 2003 Halloween storms. Using Swarm satellite density data, it finds that northern-hemisphere thermospheric density on May 12 fell about 23% below its May 9 pre-storm level even while solar extreme-ultraviolet radiation was rising. It attributes this undershoot to elevated infrared radiative cooling by nitric oxide (NO) during the storm's recovery phase, and reports the highest NO cooling flux ever observed by TIMED/SABER, about $11.84\ \mathrm{ergs\,cm^{-2}\,s^{-1}}$, slightly exceeding the 2003 Halloween-storm peak. If correct, this confirms that overcooling is not unique to the Halloween storms and that NO radiative cooling can dominate the thermospheric energy budget in the recovery phase of an extreme storm.

What carries the argument

The central mechanism is NO infrared radiative cooling: NO molecules, produced in abundance by auroral particle precipitation, are vibrationally excited by collisions with atomic oxygen and then emit $5.3\,\mu\mathrm{m}$ photons that escape to space, converting thermospheric thermal energy into radiation. The paper combines TIMED/SABER limb radiances in the $5.3\,\mu\mathrm{m}$ channel, integrated over 115--250 km to give NO infrared flux and then globally integrated to give daily radiative power, with Swarm accelerometer-derived mass densities normalized to a reference altitude via the NRLMSISE-00 model and referenced to pre-storm days (May 7, 8, or 9) to quantify the density undershoot.

What would settle it

A direct calculation or retrieval of Joule heating for May 10-12 using alternative magnetic-activity proxies (for example provisional AE, SuperMAG, or assimilated indices) that shows heating still above pre-storm levels on May 12 would undermine the overcooling attribution, as would a finding that NO cooling at the sampled local times and latitudes on May 12 was not actually elevated.

Watch

Extended reading notes

Core claim

The central claim is that the May 2024 superstorm produced a post-storm thermospheric density depletion of roughly $-23\%$ (Swarm-C, northern polar region, May 12) relative to the pre-storm day May 9, observable across Swarm-A, -B, and -C in the northern hemisphere but absent in the southern winter hemisphere. Because solar EUV flux kept increasing through the event, the expected density response was a rise, not a fall; the paper attributes the observed undershoot to NO $5.3\,\mu\mathrm{m}$ radiative cooling that remained 2--4 times above pre-storm levels through May 12, long after the storm's Joule heating had subsided. It also reports the largest NO infrared cooling flux on record, $11.84\ \mathrm{ergs\,cm^{-2}\,s^{-1}}$, slightly above the $11.74\ \mathrm{ergs\,cm^{-2}\,s^{-1}}$ peak of the 2003 Halloween storm, and a higher average NO radiative power (about $9.27\times10^{11}$ W) than in either phase of the Halloween storms.

Load-bearing premise

By May 12, the storm's heating sources—chiefly Joule heating and auroral particle precipitation—had returned to pre-storm levels, so the observed density undershoot can be attributed almost entirely to elevated NO infrared cooling; the paper did not directly calculate Joule heating for May 2024.

Editorial extensions

If this is right

  • If correct, post-storm density forecasts for extreme geomagnetic storms must account for NO radiative cooling that persists 2--4 times above quiet levels for days, not just during the main phase.
  • The May 2024 storm provides a second, well-observed case of thermospheric overcooling, strengthening the case that overcooling is a real phenomenon for storms of comparable strength and duration.
  • The reported all-time-high NO cooling flux of $11.84\ \mathrm{ergs\,cm^{-2}\,s^{-1}}$ and daily radiative power exceeding 1 TW imply that NO cooling can dissipate more than a terawatt of storm energy in a single day.
  • The hemispheric asymmetry—overcooling in the northern summer hemisphere but not the southern winter hemisphere—suggests that seasonal composition and dynamics modulate the net density response, a constraint for thermosphere-ionosphere circulation models.
  • The recovery phase showed density returning to pre-storm levels by 2--4 UT on May 12 in northern polar regions while NO cooling stayed elevated, supporting a direct causal chain from persistent cooling to the density undershoot.
  • These results imply that satellite drag models tuned to storm-time heating may systematically overestimate post-storm drag for severe storms, a practical concern for LEO operations.

Reading between the lines

Editorial extensions of the paper, not claims the author makes directly.

  • If the attribution holds, thermospheric density models used for satellite drag predictions should be checked for a systematic post-storm low bias after storms of Dst near $-412\ \mathrm{nT}$; overcooling could translate into roughly $23\%$ less drag in the northern hemisphere a day after storm peak.
  • The paper did not compute Joule heating for May 2024 because definitive Dst and PCN indices were unavailable, so the claim that heating had returned to pre-storm levels by May 12 is inferred by analogy with Halloween 2003; a direct reconstruction using provisional indices or other magnetic-activity proxies would test whether the residual density deficit is truly all NO cooling.
  • The SABER density enhancement at 105--110 km during the overcooling hints that the cooling may extend below the usual 115--250 km integration range, so a lower-altitude energy-budget analysis could refine the magnitude of of the overcooling.
  • Comparing May 2024 with the Halloween storms suggests that peak NO cooling flux may scale more with storm duration or energy deposition geometry than with Dst magnitude alone, a relation that could be tested against other severe storms.
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Editorial analysis

A structured set of objections, weighed in public.

Desk editor's note, referee report, and a circularity audit.

Referee Report

4 major / 5 minor

Summary. The manuscript reports an observational analysis of thermospheric neutral density (Swarm-A, -B, -C) and thermospheric NO infrared radiative flux (TIMED/SABER) during the May 2024 geomagnetic superstorm. The authors identify a post-storm density depletion in the northern polar region on May 12, reaching about -23% relative to May 9 in Swarm-C, despite rising solar EUV flux. They attribute this depletion to enhanced NO radiative cooling during the recovery phase, calling it a rare thermospheric overcooling event. The paper also reports an all-time high NO IRF of 11.84 ergs/cm2/s and compares the event with the Halloween 2003 storms.

Significance. If the attribution to NO radiative cooling is correct, this would be the first documented thermospheric overcooling event in solar cycle 25 and would strengthen the case that NO cooling plays a controlling role in the recovery of the thermosphere after extreme storms. The analysis uses publicly available, independent datasets, and the density depletion is internally consistent across Swarm-A and -C, which is a notable strength. The comparison with Halloween 2003 is useful for context. However, the central causal claim is not quantitatively supported because the paper does not compute Joule heating for May 2024, does not connect the NO cooling power on the depletion day to the observed density deficit, and provides no uncertainty estimates.

major comments (4)
  1. [3.4] The attribution of the May 12 density depletion to NO overcooling rests on the premise that Joule heating and particle precipitation had returned to prestorm levels by May 12. The paper itself states, 'The Joule heating rates were not calculated for the may 2024 geomagnetic superstorm because of the unavailability of definitive Dst-index and PCN-index.' Without a Joule heating estimate (or at least an upper bound) for 10-12 May, the density undershoot could equally reflect the normal recovery of thermospheric circulation and composition, or a temporary reduction in high-latitude energy input, rather than excess radiative cooling. The analogy to Halloween 2003, where Joule heating was computed and shown to decay, does not establish the premise for this event because storm morphology differs. Since 'overcooling' is fundamentally an energy-balance statement, this missing term is load-bearing for the central claim.
  2. [3.2-3.3] No quantitative link is made between the NO radiative cooling power and the magnitude of the observed density depletion. The daily NO radiated power of 12.35 x 10^11 W is quoted for May 11, while the density depletion is reported on May 12; for May 12 the text only states qualitatively that NO IRF remained 2-4 times prestorm. The authors should provide either a time-resolved energy budget (cooling power versus heating power over 10-12 May) or a scaling argument that relates the radiative energy loss to the density change. As written, the causal statement is unsupported by the data shown.
  3. [Abstract] The abstract claims that 'TIMED/SABER observed thermospheric density between 105 and 110 km altitude shows an enhancement during this thermospheric overcooling,' but this observation is not presented or analyzed anywhere in the main text, figures, or tables. If this SABER density measurement is intended as evidence for the overcooling mechanism, it must be added and discussed; otherwise, the claim should be removed from the abstract.
  4. [3.3] The reported depletion percentages (-23%, -22%, etc.) are given without uncertainties or significance testing. The density data are derived from accelerometer and precise orbit determination, which carry known errors, and the chosen reference day (May 7, 8, or 9) changes the depletion magnitude from about -9% to -23%. The authors should quantify the statistical significance of the depletion relative to natural variability (e.g., quiet-day density variation) to support the claim that this is a rare and notable event.
minor comments (5)
  1. [2] There is a typo in the data description: 'datasets ate utilized' should be 'datasets are utilized.' Also, 'Solar Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) Solar EUV Monitor (SEM)' should likely be 'Solar and Heliospheric Observatory.'
  2. [3.1] The text states 'The high pressure solar wind of about 50 hPa' - the unit hPa is inconsistent with typical solar wind dynamic pressure values (nPa). Please correct the unit or the value, and ensure it matches Figure 1.
  3. [3.4] The sentence 'The Joule heating rates were not calculated for the may 2024 geomagnetic superstorm' contains a capitalization error ('may' should be 'May').
  4. [Abstract / 3.2] The claim of an 'all time high' NO radiative cooling flux of 11.84 ergs/cm2/s is compared only with the Halloween 2003 storms. Since SABER has been operating since 2002, the authors should verify this against the full SABER record or cite a study that does so, rather than relying on a single historical comparison.
  5. [Figure 1] In the Figure 1 caption, 'magneta' should be 'magenta.'

Circularity Check

0 steps flagged · score 1.0 of 10

Observational study with no circular derivation; the NO-overcooling attribution is an interpretive gap, not a circular step.

full rationale

No circularity is present. The paper compares independent public datasets: Swarm-A/B/C thermospheric densities from POD/accelerometer retrievals, TIMED/SABER NO infrared radiance and derived cooling fluxes, SOHO/SEM and TIMED/SEE solar EUV fluxes, and geomagnetic indices from OMNIWeb/ISGI. The -23% post-storm density depletion on May 12 is computed directly as a percentage difference relative to observed prestorm daily-mean densities, not from any fitted parameter or model inversion. The NO cooling values are likewise direct SABER retrievals and are not constructed from the density data. The paper never derives density from NO cooling or NO cooling from density, so there is no equation-level equivalence. The principal weakness is interpretive: attributing the undershoot to elevated NO radiative cooling requires that storm-time heating sources (Joule heating and particle precipitation) had returned to prestorm levels by May 12, yet the paper states in Section 3.4 that 'The Joule heating rates were not calculated for the May 2024 geomagnetic superstorm because of the unavailability of definitive Dst-index and PCN-index.' This is an evidentiary gap in the energy-balance argument, not a circular reduction. The comparison to Halloween 2003 and citations to prior work, including the authors' own papers, provide context and mechanism but are not load-bearing in the sense of defining the target result into existence. Accordingly, the circularity score is low: the central observations are self-contained and independently falsifiable, while the causal attribution rests on analogy rather than on circular logic.

Assumptions & free parameters 2 free parameters · 5 assumptions · 0 invented entities

Central claim rests on standard public data retrievals and the transfer of a known mechanism to a new storm. No fitted model parameters or invented entities appear, but the analysis is sensitive to the chosen reference day, the LST/latitude windows, and the unverified assumption that Joule heating had returned to prestorm levels.

free parameters (2)
  • Reference prestorm day for reported depletion = May 9, 2024 (also May 7 and May 8 reported)
    The headline -23% depletion is relative to the May 9 daily mean density; the same event is -9.1% and -16.67% relative to May 7 and May 8 (Figure 6a), so the magnitude depends on the selected baseline.
  • Latitude and local-solar-time analysis window = e.g., >45N and 07:00-09:00 LST for Swarm-A; analogous windows for Swarm-B/C
    Depletion percentages are quoted for selected LST and latitude bins (Figures 2, 4-6); different windows give different depletion values.
assumptions (5)
  • domain assumption NRLMSISE-00 model density ratios provide a valid altitude normalization for Swarm densities across 7-13 May 2024.
    Section 3.3 normalizes Swarm densities to 490 km using NRLMSISE-00; if the model has storm-time or EUV-driven biases, the relative depletion estimate changes.
  • domain assumption TIMED/SABER 5.3 micron limb radiance and Abel inversion yield accurate NO volume emission rates, and integrating 115-250 km captures the thermospheric NO cooling flux.
    Section 2 describes the SABER retrieval; the all-time high flux claim rests on the long-term stability and accuracy of this retrieval.
  • domain assumption SABER latitude coverage (53S to 83N) and 10-degree by 180-degree binning give a representative global daily NO radiative power.
    Section 2 computes daily power from SABER's partial latitude coverage; unobserved polar and southern regions are extrapolated by binning.
  • ad hoc to paper Joule heating and particle precipitation had subsided to prestorm levels by May 12, so the residual density deficit is attributable to NO cooling.
    The authors did not compute Joule heating for May 2024 (Section 3.4) and transfer the Halloween-storm interpretation to this event.
  • domain assumption The EUV increase between May 9 and May 12 would have raised thermospheric density absent cooling, making the observed decrease a genuine overcooling signal.
    Sections 3.1-3.3 rely on the monotonic EUV increase shown in Figure 3, but no quantitative EUV-density model is used to predict the expected density on May 12.

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Cite this review

Pith. "Pith review of Evidence of potential thermospheric overcooling during the May 2024 geomagnetic superstorm." pith.science (2026). https://pith.science/paper/R2RC3SIW

@misc{pith2026241114071,
  author       = {Pith},
  title        = {Pith review of: Evidence of potential thermospheric overcooling during the May 2024 geomagnetic superstorm},
  year         = {2026},
  howpublished = {\url{https://pith.science/paper/R2RC3SIW}},
  note         = {Machine review of arXiv:2411.14071}
}
read the original abstract

During intense geomagnetic storms, the rapid and significant production of NO followed by its associated infrared radiative emission in lower thermosphere contributes crucially to the energetics of the upper atmosphere. This makes NO infrared radiative cooling a very important phenomenon which needs to be considered for accurate density forecasting in thermosphere. This study reports the investigation of variations in thermospheric density, and NO radiative cooling during the recent geomagnetic superstorm of May 2024. A very rare post-storm thermospheric density depletion of about -23% on May 12 was observed by Swarm-C in northern hemisphere in comparison to the prestorm condition on May 9. This overcooling was observed despite the continuous enhancement in solar EUV (24-36 nm) flux throughout the event. The thermospheric NO infrared radiative emission in the recovery phase of the storm seems to be the plausible cause for this observed post-storm density depletion. The TIMED/SABER observed thermospheric density between 105 and 110 km altitude shows an enhancement during this thermospheric overcooling. Our analysis also suggests an all time high thermospheric NO radiative cooling flux up to 11.84 ergs/cm2/sec during May 2024 geomagnetic superstorm, which has also been compared with famous Halloween storms of October 2003.

Figures

Figures reproduced from arXiv: 2411.14071 by the authors.

Figure 1
Figure 1. Variations in (a) North-south component of interplanetary magnetic field (IMF-Bz) (green), (b) Dst-index (black) and solar wind pressure (magenta), (c) ap-index (green) and AE￾index (red), and (d) TIMED/SABER observed NO infrared radiative flux or NO IRF (blue) and associated daily radiative power (magneta) throughout the considered event (7-14 May, 2024). DOM in X-axis label represents the Date of Month [PITH_FULL… view at source ↗
Figure 2
Figure 2. Geodetic latitude and temporal variation in Swarm-A thermospheric density (a) in morning (6 to 9 LST), (b) evening (17.5 to 20.5 LST; 17:30 to 20:30 LST in hr:min format) from 7 to 13 May 2024. Joule heating during geomagnetic storms typically raises temperatures and causes up￾welling or expansion of the earth’s upper atmosphere. This upwelling increases the thermo￾spheric density between 300 and 500 km above sea le… view at source ↗
Figure 3
Figure 3. Variation in Solar EUV fluxes as observed by (a) SOHO/SEM, and (b) TIMED/SEE throughout the event. The slow increase of thermospheric density from 7 to 10 May (before the storm com￾mencement) in both the figures ( [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p007_3.png] view at source ↗
Figures from the paper (4 more)
Figure 4
Figure 4. Figure 4: Thermospheric density perturbations as estimated by Swarm-A (a & b) northern polar region, and (c & d) southern polar region, from 7-13 May 2024. The green, cyan, and red horizontal dotted lines represent the daily mean density values (within the LST and latitude limit…
Figure 5
Figure 5. Figure 5: Thermospheric density perturbations as estimated by Swarm-B (a & b) northern polar region, and (c & d) southern polar region, from 7-13 May 2024. The green, cyan, and red horizontal dotted lines represent the daily mean density values for 7 May, 8 May, and 9 May, respe…
Figure 6
Figure 6. Figure 6: Thermospheric density perturbations as estimated by Swarm-C (a & b) northern polar region, and (c & d) southern polar region, from 7-13 May 2024. The green, cyan, and red horizontal dotted lines represent the daily mean density values for 7 May, 8 May, and 9 May, respe…
Figure 7
Figure 7. Figure 7: Variations in (a) North-south component of interplanetary magnetic field (IMF-Bz) (green), and Dst-index (red), (b) ap-index (green) and AE-index (red), (c) estimated Joule heating rate in northern winter hemisphere, and (d) TIMED/SABER observed NO infrared radiative f…

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Reviewed August 12, 2026 · model on record in the stance chip above.