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TOI-1846b: A super-Earth in the radius valley orbiting a nearby M dwarf

T0 review · 3 major / 5 minor · reviewed 2026-08-15 · deepseek-v4-flash

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Pith's one-line read TOI-1846b is a validated super-Earth with radius 1.79 Earth radii on a 3.9-day orbit around a nearby M dwarf.

desk verdict A credible, standard validation of a super-Earth whose headline radius depends on which of two inconsistent stellar radii you use; fix that consistency pass and it becomes a useful addition. read the letter →

arxiv 2506.18550 v1 pith:MBYSKXVT submitted 2025-06-23 astro-ph.EP

Abderahmane Soubkiou , Khalid Barkaoui , Zouhair Benkhaldoun , Mourad Ghachoui , Jamila Chouqar , Benjamin V. Rackham , Adam Burgasser , Emma Softich
show 37 more authors
Enric Pallé Akihiko Fukui Norio Narita Felipe Murgas Steve B. Howell Catherine A. Clark Colin Littlefield Allyson Bieryla Andrew W. Boyle David Ciardi Karen Collins Kevin I. Collins Jerome de Leon Courtney D. Dressing Jason Eastman Emma Esparza-Borges Steven Giacalone Holden Gill Michaël Gillon Kai Ikuta J. M. Jenkins Taiki Kagetani David W. Latham Mayuko Mori Hannu Parviainen Emily Pass G. Ricker Boris S. Safonov Arjun B. Savel Richard P. Schwarz Sara Seager Ivan A. Strakhov Gregor Srdoc R. Vanderspek Noriharu Watanabe Cristilyn N. Watkins J. Winn
This is my paper · ORCID
classification astro-ph.EP
keywords TOI-1846bsuper-EarthradiusvalleyMdwarftransitingplanetplanetaryvalidationTESSexoplanetformation
verification ladder T0 review T1 audit T2 compute T3 formal

The pith

A machine-rendered reading of the paper's core claim, the machinery that carries it, and where it could break.

The reading

This paper establishes that TOI-1846b, a transiting object detected by TESS around a nearby M dwarf, is a genuine super-Earth rather than an eclipsing binary or background impostor. Joint modeling of space and ground-based photometry yields a radius of $1.79\pm 0.07$ Earth radii on a 3.93-day orbit, with an inferred mass of about 4.4 Earth masses from an empirical mass-radius relation. The planet sits squarely in the sparsely populated radius valley, the size gap thought to separate rocky super-Earths from gas-rich sub-Neptunes. Because it orbits a bright, nearby M dwarf, TOI-1846b can be followed up with radial-velocity and atmospheric observations that may reveal its bulk composition and test formation models.

What carries the argument

The argument is carried by the radius valley itself as a diagnostic, together with a validation chain that converts a transit signal into a confident planet detection. A precisely measured radius near $1.8\,R_\oplus$ for a short-period planet around an M dwarf places it in the 'keystone' region, where competing formation models (photoevaporation, gas-poor formation, gas-depleted formation) predict different compositions. The claim is supported by joint global modeling of the TESS and ground-based multicolor light curves, achromaticity checks across passbands, high-resolution imaging that rules out stellar companions, and a Bayesian false-positive probability calculation.

What would settle it

Measure the star's radius independently (for example, with optical interferometry or asteroseismology) and check whether the planet's radius stays within the roughly 1.5--2 Earth-radius valley; alternatively, a radial-velocity campaign with about 1 m/s precision that fails to detect the predicted 3--5 m/s signal would falsify the planetary interpretation.

Watch

Extended reading notes

Core claim

The paper's central claim is that TOI-1846b is a validated super-Earth: a planet with $R_p = 1.79\pm 0.07\,R_\oplus$ orbiting the M dwarf TOI-1846 every $3.93067$ days, with an equilibrium temperature near 570--590 K and an estimated mass of $4.4^{+1.6}_{-1.0}\,M_\oplus$ inferred from a mass-radius relation. The validation rests on excluding false positives: multicolor ground-based transits confirm the event on the target star and show it is achromatic, high-resolution imaging resolves no stellar companion, and a Bayesian false-positive probability calculation returns $FPP \approx 1.2\times 10^{-4}$. With this radius and period, the planet falls in the keystone region of the radius valley where competing formation theories make different predictions, so the paper argues it is a valuable addition to the small sample of such planets needed to discriminate between photoevaporation, gas-poor formation, and gas-depleted formation scenarios.

Load-bearing premise

The planetary radius inherits the stellar radius, which comes from empirical M-dwarf relations; if those relations carry a systematic offset for this star, the planet's radius and its claimed position in the radius valley would shift accordingly.

Editorial extensions

If this is right

  • A precise mass measurement via radial velocities (expected semi-amplitude of roughly 3--5 m/s) would reveal whether TOI-1846b is rocky, water-rich, or gas-rich, directly testing which formation mechanism operates.
  • The planet joins the sparse sample of radius-valley planets around bright M dwarfs, helping to refine the valley's location and slope for low-mass stars.
  • If the composition turns out to be water-rich, the result would support pebble-accretion and water-world interpretations of M-dwarf planets; if rocky, it would favor gas-poor formation scenarios.
  • The injection-recovery analysis shows that no planets with radii above about 1.5 Earth radii and periods up to 15 days exist in this system, tightening knowledge of its architecture.
  • Simulated JWST transmission spectra show that water and methane features could be detectable with NIRISS and MIRI if the planet retains an atmosphere, although the transmission spectroscopy metric is modest.

Reading between the lines

Editorial extensions of the paper, not claims the author makes directly.

  • If a high-precision radial-velocity campaign finds a mass near the lower end of the predicted range, the density would place TOI-1846b in the 'water world' regime of the density valley, strengthening the case for a distinct water-rich population around M dwarfs.
  • The validation template used here (achromatic ground-based transit checks combined with statistical false-positive rejection) could be applied to other single-transit TESS candidates in the radius valley, and the published injection-recovery results calibrate how many such planets may have been missed.
  • Given the small predicted radial-velocity semi-amplitude of a few meters per second, the paper implicitly prioritizes next-generation stabilized spectrographs; a cheaper near-term test is to re-search the already-collected TESS sectors with a lower detection threshold for additional transits.
  • A direct test of the radius placement would be to measure the stellar radius independently, since the planetary radius inherits the empirical M-dwarf radius relation; a shift of more than about 5 percent could move the planet out of the valley.
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Editorial analysis

A structured set of objections, weighed in public.

Desk editor's note, referee report, and a circularity audit.

Referee Report

3 major / 5 minor

Summary. This paper reports the discovery and validation of TOI-1846b, a transiting super-Earth-sized planet with period P=3.93067 d around a nearby M dwarf (d≈47 pc). The analysis combines TESS 2-minute photometry from many sectors, ground-based multicolor transit photometry (MuSCAT, MuSCAT2, MuSCAT3, KeplerCam), high-resolution AO/speckle imaging, archival imaging, and TRES/Kast/SpeX spectroscopy. The authors report Rp=1.792+0.065−0.068 R⊕, a mass of 4.4+1.6−1.0 M⊕ predicted from the Chen & Kipping (2017) relation, an equilibrium temperature of 568–589 K depending on the adopted stellar radius, and FPP=(1.17±0.58)×10−4. They place the planet in the radius-valley 'keystone' region and discuss RV and atmospheric follow-up prospects.

Significance. The planet's existence and validation are strongly supported: the transit is detected at high S/N in many TESS sectors, the ground-based light curves are achromatic, high-resolution imaging excludes companions, and TRICERATOPS yields FPP~10−4. The manuscript also includes an independent transit model (TRAFIT), an injection-recovery experiment, and a TTV search, all of which strengthen the discovery. The principal scientific value is the addition of a bright-host (J=10.4) super-Earth in the radius valley around an M dwarf, a target for RV mass measurement and for future radius-valley population studies. The main caveat is that all mass-dependent quantities are inferred from empirical mass-radius relations rather than measured, and the headline radius inherits an unresolved internal inconsistency in the adopted stellar radius.

major comments (3)
  1. [Section 5.1 / Table 6 vs Section 3.1 / Abstract] Table 6 reports Rp/R★=0.04137±0.00072. Combining this ratio with the SED-fit radius R★=0.397+0.011−0.012 R⊙ (Table 5) gives Rp≈1.79 R⊕ as quoted, whereas combining it with the Mann et al. (2015) radius R★=0.4115±0.0119 R⊙ quoted in the abstract and Section 3.1 gives Rp≈1.86 R⊕. The difference is approximately the quoted 1σ uncertainty, yet the text states the two stellar characterizations are 'in excellent agreement' (Section 3.1) and does not specify which stellar radius was adopted in the joint EXOFASTv2 fit. The paper must identify the adopted stellar parameters, propagate them consistently, and reconcile the resulting Rp and Teq values (abstract 589±20 K vs Table 6 568.1±6.1 K) before the radius-valley placement can be considered robust.
  2. [Section 5.1 / Table 6, Section 6.1] The mass Mp=4.4+1.6−1.0 M⊕, density ρp=4.20+1.5−0.96 g/cc, surface gravity, RV semi-amplitude K=3.17+1.1−0.73 m/s, and the TSM in Section 6.3 are all outputs of the Chen & Kipping (2017) mass-radius relation rather than measurements. This is acknowledged only in a footnote to Table 6. Statements such as 'It most probably has a water-rich bulk composition based on its radius' (Section 6.1) and the conclusion's 'first guessed to be a water-rich world' treat composition as if it followed from the data when it follows from the adopted prior. I recommend either removing these composition claims or explicitly labeling them as conditional on the Chen & Kipping relation, with the spright posterior (Section 6.2) presented as the only model-agnostic compositional statement.
  3. [Section 2.3.1 / Table 4 / Section 3.3] The systemic radial velocity is internally inconsistent. TRES gives −20.720±0.056 km/s and −20.831±0.034 km/s, Table 4 lists RV=−25.93±2.00 km/s 'This work', Section 2.5 cites a Gaia DR3 RV of '20.64 km/s' without a sign, and Section 3.3 states that the space motion was computed using a 'systemic RV from the SpeX spectrum' whose value is never reported. Because the thin-disk/thick-disk probability and Zmax in Section 3.3 depend directly on the adopted RV, the manuscript should present one adopted systemic RV with its source and propagate that value through the kinematic analysis.
minor comments (5)
  1. [Section 3.1] 'M_k = 0.408±0.01' is inconsistent with K=9.596 and d=47.244 pc, which give M_K≈6.22; the intended value is presumably 6.4, and this typo should be corrected because it is the input to the Mann et al. (2015) radius relation.
  2. [Section 2.2.1 and Table 2] The KeplerCam observations are dated 31 Jul 2020 in the table but 'UT2021-05-19' in the text, and the text says both that no transit was detected and that an egress was detected; these statements need to be reconciled.
  3. [Figure 11 caption] 'POSSII (1922 and 2011)' is presumably a typo for the POSS-II epoch (1990s) and should be corrected.
  4. [Section 2.5] The sentence 'the RV from Gaia DR3 archive is 20.64 km/s' should give the sign explicitly as −20.64 km/s, consistent with the TRES values.
  5. [Throughout] Minor language and typographical issues include 'rules out the the possibility' (Section 4.3), 'the the quadratic limb-darkening coefficients' (Section 5.2), and 'the predict RV precision' (Section 6.2).

Circularity Check

0 steps flagged · score 0.0 of 10

No circularity: the planet detection, validation, and radius derive from external photometry, imaging, and empirical stellar relations, not from the paper's own conclusions.

full rationale

The paper's central claims are a transit detection, a statistical validation, and a planetary radius. The transit signal is measured from TESS and ground-based multi-color photometry, and the false-positive probability is computed with TRICERATOPS using the observed contrast curves; none of these steps presuppose the planet's radius or mass. The stellar radius enters the physical radius through Rp = (Rp/R*) * R*, with R* taken from the Mann et al. (2015) R-M_K relation and from an EXOFASTv2 SED fit; these are external empirical calibrations applied to the data, not outputs of the paper re-imported as inputs. The mass Mp = 4.4+1.6-1.0 M_Earth is explicitly labeled as coming from the Chen & Kipping (2017) mass-radius relation, and Table 6 marks it as 'The estimated mass from Chen & Kipping (2017)', so it is presented as a prediction from an external empirical relation, not as a measured quantity derived from the paper's own assumptions. The spright-based composition probabilities, RV semi-amplitude predictions, and TSM likewise are forward calculations using external empirical models and are explicitly framed as predictions for future observations. The authors cite their own previous work for data-reduction strategies and pipelines, but these citations are not load-bearing for the central result; no uniqueness theorem and no ansatz is imported from the authors' prior papers to force the planet parameters. The internal inconsistency between the Mann-relation stellar radius (0.4115 +/- 0.0119 R_sun) and the SED radius (0.397 +0.011/-0.012 R_sun), and the corresponding difference in equilibrium temperature between the abstract and Table 6, is a genuine consistency concern for the precision of the headline radius, but it is not a circularity: both values are external empirical estimates, and the planet's existence, period, and validation are independent of which radius is adopted. On the circularity criteria defined for this analysis, the derivation chain is self-contained against external benchmarks and no step reduces, by construction or self-citation, to its own inputs.

Assumptions & free parameters 2 free parameters · 5 assumptions · 0 invented entities

The central claim depends on standard empirical M-dwarf calibrations and external mass-radius or composition models, plus fitted dilution and limb-darkening parameters. No new physical entities are introduced. The most consequential model input is the stellar radius, which scales the derived planetary radius, and the Chen & Kipping relation, which supplies the unmeasured mass.

free parameters (2)
  • Dilution A_D (TESS) = 0.04 ± 0.14
    Free parameter in the EXOFASTv2 global fit accounting for flux contamination in the TESS aperture; consistent with zero.
  • Quadratic limb-darkening coefficients u1, u2 per band = u1 0.19 to 0.46, u2 0.29 to 0.34 across g', r', i', z', TESS
    Free parameters in the transit fit with priors from Claret model atmospheres; they shape the transit model but do not drive the radius claim.
assumptions (5)
  • domain assumption The Chen & Kipping (2017) empirical mass-radius relation is valid for TOI-1846b and is used to assign Mp=4.4 M_Earth, density, and transmission spectroscopy metric.
    Invoked in Section 5.1 and Section 6.3; no RV mass measurement exists, so all mass-dependent quantities inherit this external relation.
  • domain assumption The Mann et al. (2015, 2019) M-dwarf empirical relations give accurate stellar radius, mass, and effective temperature for TOI-1846.
    Used in Section 3.1 to set R*=0.4115 R_sun and M*=0.40 M_sun; the stellar radius directly scales the derived planetary radius.
  • domain assumption The spright three-component radius-density mixture model applies to this planet and is used to assign composition probabilities and RV semi-amplitude expectations.
    Used in Section 6.2; the water-rich classification statement depends on the model's definition of water-rich planets and its priors.
  • standard math TRICERATOPS priors and the standard FPP threshold (FPP<0.015) are a valid statistical validation framework.
    Used in Section 4.4 to claim statistical validation of the planet candidate.
  • domain assumption Equilibrium temperature assumes zero Bond albedo and full heat redistribution.
    Stated in the abstract and Table 6 notes; the derived Teq and its interpretation depend on this assumption.

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Cite this review

Pith. "Pith review of TOI-1846b: A super-Earth in the radius valley orbiting a nearby M dwarf." pith.science (2026). https://pith.science/paper/MBYSKXVT

@misc{pith2026250618550,
  author       = {Pith},
  title        = {Pith review of: TOI-1846b: A super-Earth in the radius valley orbiting a nearby M dwarf},
  year         = {2026},
  howpublished = {\url{https://pith.science/paper/MBYSKXVT}},
  note         = {Machine review of arXiv:2506.18550}
}
read the original abstract

We present the discovery and validation of a super-Earth planet orbiting the M dwarf star TOI-1846 (TIC 198385543). The host star(Kmag = 9.6)is located 47 pc away and has a radius of Rs=0.41+/-0.01R_Sun,a mass of Ms=0.40+/-0.02M_Sun and an effective temperature of Teff=3568+/-44K. Our analyses are based on joint modelling of TESS photometry and ground-based multi-color photometric data. We also use high-resolution imaging and archival images, as well as statistical validation techniques to support the planetary system nature. We find that TOI-1846b is a super-Earth sized planet with radius of Rp=1.79+/-0.07R_Earth and a predicted mass of Mp=4.4+1.6-1.0M_Earth (from the Chen & Kipping relation) on a 3.9 d orbit, with an equilibrium temperature of Teq=589+/-20K (assuming a null Bond Albedo) and an incident flux of Sp=17.6+/-2.0S_Earth. Based on the two RV measurements obtained with the TRES spectrograph and high-resolution imaging, a non-planetary transiting companion is excluded. With a radius of ~1.8R_Earth, TOI-1846b is within the sparsely populated radius range around 2R_Earth known as the radius gap (or radius valley). This discovery can contribute to refining the precise location of the radius valley for small planets orbiting bright M dwarfs, thereby enhancing our understanding of planetary formation and evolution processes.

Figures

Figures reproduced from arXiv: 2506.18550 by the authors.

Figure 3
Figure 3. TLS power spectra of the detrended TESS PDC light curves of TOI-1846. 2.2.2 MuSCAT A full transit of TOI-1846 b was observed on UTC 29 March 2022 with the multicolor imager (MuSCAT) (Narita et al. 2015) on the 1.88m telescope of National Astronomical Observatory of Japan (NAOJ) located in Okayama, Japan. MuSCAT has three optical chan￾nels each equipped with a 1k × 1k CCD camera with a pixel scale of 0.361′′. The obs… view at source ↗
Figure 2
Figure 2. TESS PDCSAP phase-folded light curves of TOI-1846. The blue and green points are unbinned and binned (2-minutes) data. The solid line shows the best-fitting transit model. Fairchild 486 detector. It is run in 2x2 bin mode with a resulting pixel scale of 0.672′′/pixel. Data reduction and aperture photometry were performed using AstroImageJ (AIJ: Collins et al. 2017) software. No transit was detected and there was no s… view at source ↗
Figure 4
Figure 4. Ground-based phase-folded transit light curves of TOI-1846 b col￾lected with MuSCAT, MuSCAT2, MuSCAT3 and KeplerCam. The coloured lines are the best-fitting transit model. The light curves are shifted along the y-axis for visibility [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p004_4.png] view at source ↗
Figures from the paper (14 more)
Figure 5
Figure 5. Figure 5: Ground-based photometric follow-up for TOI-1846 b obtained by MuSCAT, MuSCAT2, MuSCAT3 and KeplerCam. The solid lines show the superimposed best-fitting transit model. MNRAS 000, 1–19 (2024) [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p005_5.png]
Figure 6
Figure 6. Figure 6: High-resolution imaging of TOI-1846. Top left panel shows the 3.0m-Shane high-resolution imaging in the 𝐾 𝑠 and 𝐽 filters on UTC 29 March 2021. Top right panel shows the Gemini-North-8m/‘Alopeke high-resolution imaging taken simultaneously in two bands (562/54 nm and 8…
Figure 7
Figure 7. Figure 7: Spectral energy distribution (SED) fit of flux as a function of wavelength for TOI 1846. Blue points are the best-fit values, and red points are the corresponding model values and errors. based on Mann et al. (2013), consistent with the SED analysis. We note that Ding …
Figure 9
Figure 9. Figure 9: SpeX SXD spectrum of TOI-1846 (red) compared to that of the M3V standard AD Leo (grey; Rayner et al. 2009). Strong spectral features of M dwarfs are highlighted, and regions of strong telluric absorption are shaded. we find 𝑈LSR = 48.99 ± 4.59 km s−1 , 𝑉LSR = −20.10 ± …
Figure 8
Figure 8. Figure 8: Kast spectrum (black lines) of TOI-1846 (black line) compared to the best-fit M3 spectral templates from Bochanski et al. (2007, magenta line). Both spectra are normalized at 7500 Å, with the blue and red orders of Kast are relatively scaled to match the spectral stand…
Figure 10
Figure 10. Figure 10: TESS-SIP power spectrum of TOI-1846. We calculate the peri￾odogram for both the corrected light curve (top panel) and the background (BKG) pixels (bottom panel). The star’s periodogram shows a rotational signal of ≈ 28.75 days not existing in the lightcurve of the bac…
Figure 11
Figure 11. Figure 11: POSS I 1953 and POSS II (1922 and 2011) archival images cropped with a field of view of 1’×1’ around TOI-1846. The central red circle marks the current position of TOI-1846. 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 Wavelength [nm] 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100 2200 2300 2400 Tran…
Figure 12
Figure 12. Figure 12: Transit depths measured for multi-band photometric follow-up of TOI-184 b (colored points). Horizontal dashed line correspond to the transit depth measured by TESS. Colored regions show the bands coverage. the quadratic limb-darkening coefficients (LDCs), and the tran…
Figure 13
Figure 13. Figure 13: Injection-and-recovery experiment performed to test the de￾tectability of extra planets in the system using the tow TESS sectors described in Sect 5.3. The red star marks the position of TOI-1846 b . from Sectors 73 and 74, we performed an injection-recovery test usin…
Figure 14
Figure 14. Figure 14: The planet radius and orbital period diagram of all confirmed small planets hosted by low mass stars. The green contours are the density distribution of planets. The solid and dashed lines depict the locations of radius valley for low mass stars predicted by the gas p…
Figure 17
Figure 17. Figure 17: The transmission spectroscopy metric as defined by (Kempton et al. 2018) for all known transiting exoplanets with both a measured mass and radius as a function of equilibrium temperature. We only considered planets with mass uncertainties less than 20% and a radius of…
Figure 18
Figure 18. Figure 18: Top panel: Models with solar abundance are shown as solid lines. PandExo simulated observations for JWST NIRISS-SOSS, NIRSpec-G395M, and MIRI-LRS modes are also depicted, with wavelength coverage denoted by colored error bars. Bottom panel: Models include one with met…
Figure 1
Figure 1. Figure 1: Left panel: TESS target pixel file images of TOI-1846 observed in Sectors 20, 23, 24, 25, 26, 40, 47, 50, 51, 52, 53, and 54. The red circles show the sources in the field identified by the Gaia DR2 catalogue with scaled magnitudes. The position of the targets is indic…
Figure 2
Figure 2. Figure 2: TESS photometric data of TOI-1846. The gray points show the PDSAP fluxes obtained from the SPOC pipeline. The red points correspond to the location of the transit for the candidate TOI-1846. MNRAS 000, 1–19 (2024) [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p021_2.png]

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    write newline

    " write newline "" before.all 'output.state := FUNCTION fin.entry write newline FUNCTION new.block output.state before.all = 'skip after.block 'output.state := if FUNCTION new.sentence output.state after.block = 'skip output.state before.all = 'skip after.sentence 'output.stat...

Pith tools

Reviewed August 15, 2026 · model on record in the stance chip above.