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arxiv: 2508.18964 · v2 · submitted 2025-08-26 · 🌌 astro-ph.EP

VLT/CRIRES+ observations of warm Neptune WASP-107 b: Challenges in detecting molecules with ground-based transmission spectroscopy of cooler and cloudy exoplanets

Linn Boldt-Christmas , Adam D. Rains , Nikolai Piskunov , Lisa Nortmann , Fabio Lesjak , David Cont , Oleg Kochukhov , Axel Hahlin
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Alexis Lavail Thomas Marquart Ulrike Heiter Miriam Rengel Denis Shulyak Fei Yan Artie Hatzes Evangelos Nagel Ansgar Reiners Ulf Seemann
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Pith reviewed 2026-05-18 21:23 UTC · model grok-4.3

classification 🌌 astro-ph.EP
keywords exoplanet atmospherestransmission spectroscopyWASP-107 bhigh-resolution spectroscopymolecular detectionsground-based observationswarm NeptuneCRIRES+
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The pith

Ground-based VLT/CRIRES+ observations detect CO and H2O in the atmosphere of warm Neptune WASP-107 b.

A machine-rendered reading of the paper's core claim, the machinery that carries it, and where it could break.

The paper examines whether high-resolution transmission spectroscopy from the ground can identify molecules in the atmospheres of cooler exoplanets that are smaller and cloudier than typical hot Jupiters. The authors analyze two transits of WASP-107 b using VLT/CRIRES+ and compare the data against atmospheric templates drawn from earlier JWST retrievals. They recover a carbon monoxide signal at roughly 6 sigma and a water signal at 4.5 sigma. These results match space-based detections and mark the first successful use of this instrument on a target cooler than a hot Jupiter. The work also shows that cloud assumptions strongly affect the outcome while volume mixing ratio changes matter less, and it notes a reduced error budget that makes such observations more demanding.

Core claim

Using two transits observed with VLT/CRIRES+, the authors construct cross-correlation templates from JWST-retrieved atmospheric parameters and recover molecular signals of CO at approximately 6 S/N and H2O at 4.5 S/N. These detections confirm prior space-based findings and establish that the instrument can identify species in planets with equilibrium temperatures near 740 K. The analysis proves sensitive to the presence or absence of clouds in the templates but less sensitive to changes in volume mixing ratios. The signals appear offset from their expected locations in Kp-vsys diagrams, and the overall error budget is shown to be substantially smaller than for hotter exoplanets.

What carries the argument

Cross-correlation templates generated from JWST atmospheric retrievals, tested with and without clouds and with varied molecular abundances, to extract signals from high-resolution transmission spectra.

If this is right

  • Ground-based high-resolution spectroscopy can confirm molecular species previously seen only from space in planets cooler than hot Jupiters.
  • Detection strength depends strongly on whether clouds are included in the model templates.
  • The Kp-vsys offset of the signals may reflect real atmospheric effects or analysis systematics.
  • Cooler targets carry a much smaller error budget than hotter ones, increasing the need for precise modeling.
  • Further technical development is required to make routine high-resolution spectroscopy viable for cloudy, cooler atmospheres.

Where Pith is reading between the lines

These are editorial extensions of the paper, not claims the author makes directly.

  • Combining simultaneous ground- and space-based data on the same target could help isolate whether velocity offsets arise from atmospheric winds.
  • The demonstrated sensitivity to cloud inclusion suggests that future template libraries should systematically vary cloud deck height and opacity to improve detection reliability.
  • If the reduced error budget holds across similar planets, longer integration times or multiple transits will be needed to reach secure detections in the warm Neptune regime.
  • This template approach could be tested on other JWST-characterized cooler exoplanets to build a broader sample of ground-based molecular confirmations.

Load-bearing premise

The atmospheric parameters and cloud properties taken from prior JWST retrievals accurately represent the planet without systematic biases that would alter the cross-correlation results.

What would settle it

An independent high-resolution observation of the same transits that yields no CO or H2O signals above 3 sigma, or signals at markedly different Kp-vsys locations, would contradict the reported detections.

Figures

Figures reproduced from arXiv: 2508.18964 by Adam D. Rains, Alexis Lavail, Ansgar Reiners, Artie Hatzes, Axel Hahlin, David Cont, Denis Shulyak, Evangelos Nagel, Fabio Lesjak, Fei Yan, Linn Boldt-Christmas, Lisa Nortmann, Miriam Rengel, Nikolai Piskunov, Oleg Kochukhov, Thomas Marquart, Ulf Seemann, Ulrike Heiter.

Figure 1
Figure 1. Figure 1: Observing conditions as a function of time for Night 1 (left) and Night 2 (right), with vertical gray lines indicating the extent of the transit event. Top: Airmass, with coloured points blue and orange representing nodding positions A and B. Middle: As above, but for median signal-to￾noise ratio (S/N) per pixel. Bottom: the blue diamonds correspond to the relative humidity (%) and the red crosses to the s… view at source ↗
Figure 2
Figure 2. Figure 2: Wavelength correction illustrated as RV corrections (vertical axis) determined for each spectral segment across exposure number (horizontal axis) for Night 1. Numbers indicate spectral order (1 to 6). Colour refers to blue, green and red detector. The black line shows the corrections of the reference interval (green detector, order 2). on N1, and 25 pairs on N2) and reduced using the recipe cr2res_obs_nodd… view at source ↗
Figure 3
Figure 3. Figure 3: Plot showing the simulated global (i.e. including all species) transmission spectrum of WASP-107 b, coloured by species contribution, based on parameters from the results of the Welbanks et al. (2024) CHIMERA retrieval and as generated by petitRADTRANS at a resolving power of R = 106 . The plot demonstrates the notable change of the spectrum’s shape when either excluding (top plot, showing a “clear” atmosp… view at source ↗
Figure 4
Figure 4. Figure 4: Simulated Kp − vsys plots to test the impact of including or excluding cloud decks in four different test cases. Top: Simulations of a “clear” WASP-107 b that has no cloud deck present, cross-correlated with a “clear” template that excludes clouds (left) and with a “cloudy” template that includes clouds (right). Middle: Same test as the top row, now simulating a “cloudy” WASP-107 b with a cloud deck presen… view at source ↗
Figure 5
Figure 5. Figure 5: Simulated Kp − vsys plots to test varying the argument of periastron ω in ten different test cases. Top: Simulations of a “clear” WASP-107 b that has no cloud deck present, cross-correlated with a “clear” template that excludes clouds, for five different values of ω. Middle: Same test as the top row, now simulating a “cloudy” WASP-107 b cross-correlated with a “cloudy” template, where both the simulation a… view at source ↗
Figure 6
Figure 6. Figure 6: Cross-correlation function (CCF) maps of the A and B frames for Night 1 (N1) and Night 2 (N2) from our VLT/CRIRES+ data. For each plot, the white dotted lines denote the start and end of the transit. The data are shown for SYSREM iterations 0, 5, 10, and 15 in order to demonstrate that all non-zero iterations are clear of any obvious contamination or artefacts. The maps show cross-correlation with the “glo… view at source ↗
Figure 7
Figure 7. Figure 7: Kp − vsys plots for SYSREM iterations 3-10, cross-correlating with the global template (top) and with the CO template (bottom). In each plot, the white dotted line denotes the expected location of the peak. In the top left, the F-value denotes the maximum value found across the “full” map, and the E-value denotes the maximum value found within the “expected” location, i.e. within 13 km/s of Kp = 105 km/s a… view at source ↗
Figure 8
Figure 8. Figure 8: Kp − vsys plots for SYSREM iterations 3-10, cross-correlating with the H2O template (top) and with the NH3 template (bottom). In each plot, the white dotted line denotes the expected location of the peak. In the top left, the F-value denotes the maximum value found across the “full” map, and the E-value denotes the maximum value found within the “expected” location, i.e. within 13 km/s of Kp = 105 km/s and… view at source ↗
Figure 9
Figure 9. Figure 9: Real and simulated Kp − vsys plots for SYSREM iterations 3-10, cross-correlating with the H2O template including clouds. In each plot, the white dotted line denotes the expected location of the peak, and the yellow dashed line denotes the actual location of the peak. Top row: the real data Kp − vsys, as shown in [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p018_9.png] view at source ↗
Figure 10
Figure 10. Figure 10: Simulated Kp − vsys plots for SYSREM iterations 3-10, cross-correlating with the H2O template including clouds. In each plot, the white dotted line denotes the expected location of the peak, and the yellow dashed line denotes the actual location of the peak. All simulated observations include tellurics. Top row: cross-correlation with a template with equilibrium temperature Teq = 1 200 K (“hot”). Middle r… view at source ↗
read the original abstract

Atmospheres of transiting exoplanets can be studied spectroscopically using space-based or ground-based observations. Each has its own strengths and weaknesses, so there are benefits to both approaches. This is especially true for challenging targets such as cooler, smaller exoplanets whose atmospheres likely contain many molecular species and cloud decks. We aim to study the atmosphere of the warm Neptune-like exoplanet WASP-107 b (Teq~740 K). Several molecular species have been detected in this exoplanet in recent space-based JWST studies, and we aim to confirm and expand upon these detections using ground-based VLT, evaluating how well our findings agree with previously retrieved atmospheric parameters. We observe two transits of WASP-107 b with VLT/CRIRES+ and create cross-correlation templates of the target atmosphere based on retrieval results from JWST studies. We create different templates to investigate the impact of varying volume mixing ratios of species and inclusion or exclusion of clouds. Considering this target's observational challenges, we create simulated observations prior to evaluating real data to assess expected detection significances. We report detections of two molecular species, CO (~6 S/N) and H2O (~4.5 S/N). This confirms previous space-based detections and demonstrates, for the first time, the capability of VLT/CRIRES+ to detect species in targets cooler than hot Jupiters using transmission spectroscopy. We show our analysis is sensitive to cloud inclusion, but less so to different volume mixing ratios. Interestingly, our detection deviates from its expected location in our Kp-vsys diagrams, and we speculate on possible reasons for this. We demonstrate that the error budget for relatively cooler exoplanets is severely reduced in comparison to hotter exoplanets, and underline need for further work in context of high-resolution spectroscopy.

Editorial analysis

A structured set of objections, weighed in public.

Desk editor's note, referee report, simulated authors' rebuttal, and a circularity audit. Tearing a paper down is the easy half of reading it; the pith above is the substance, this is the friction.

Referee Report

2 major / 2 minor

Summary. The manuscript presents VLT/CRIRES+ high-resolution transmission spectroscopy of two transits of the warm Neptune WASP-107 b (Teq ~740 K). Cross-correlation templates are built from prior JWST retrievals, with variations in cloud inclusion and molecular volume mixing ratios. Pre-observation simulations are used to assess expected significances. The authors report detections of CO at ~6 S/N and H2O at ~4.5 S/N, confirming space-based results, while noting sensitivity to clouds, an offset in the Kp-vsys diagram, and a reduced error budget for cooler atmospheres.

Significance. If robust, these results would be significant for extending ground-based high-resolution spectroscopy to cooler, cloudier exoplanets and providing independent confirmation of JWST detections. The use of pre-observation simulations and explicit tests of cloud and VMR variations are methodological strengths that support reproducibility. However, the unexplained Kp-vsys offset and reliance on external JWST templates limit the strength of the central claim until addressed.

major comments (2)
  1. [Abstract and Kp-vsys diagram results] The reported CO (~6 S/N) and H2O (~4.5 S/N) detections are offset from the expected planetary Kp-vsys location (as noted in the abstract). This deviation could indicate template mismatch arising from JWST-derived cloud properties or abundances, or unmodeled systematics in the CRIRES+ data reduction. A quantitative analysis of the offset's impact on detection significance and alternative explanations is required to substantiate the claimed molecular detections.
  2. [Methods on template construction] Templates are constructed directly from JWST retrieval parameters (including cloud decks and VMRs). While this grounds the analysis in external data, the sensitivity to cloud inclusion (explicitly shown) means that any systematic bias in the JWST cloud model could shift the correlation peak and affect the quoted S/N values. An assessment of how variations in JWST priors propagate to the ground-based results would strengthen the confirmation claim.
minor comments (2)
  1. [Abstract] The abstract states that the analysis is 'less so' sensitive to different volume mixing ratios; a brief quantitative statement or table summarizing the S/N changes across VMR variations would improve clarity.
  2. Figure captions for the cross-correlation maps and Kp-vsys diagrams should explicitly mark the expected planetary location versus the observed peak to aid reader interpretation of the offset.

Simulated Author's Rebuttal

2 responses · 0 unresolved

We thank the referee for their constructive feedback and for recognizing the potential significance of these results for cooler exoplanets. We address each major comment below and describe the revisions that will be incorporated.

read point-by-point responses

  1. Referee: [Abstract and Kp-vsys diagram results] The reported CO (~6 S/N) and H2O (~4.5 S/N) detections are offset from the expected planetary Kp-vsys location (as noted in the abstract). This deviation could indicate template mismatch arising from JWST-derived cloud properties or abundances, or unmodeled systematics in the CRIRES+ data reduction. A quantitative analysis of the offset's impact on detection significance and alternative explanations is required to substantiate the claimed molecular detections.

    Authors: We acknowledge the offset and its potential implications, which are already noted in the manuscript along with initial speculation on causes such as template mismatch or systematics. To address the request for quantitative analysis, we will add a dedicated subsection quantifying the drop in S/N when fixing the peak at the expected Kp-vsys location versus the observed offset position. We will also test alternative explanations by generating templates with perturbed cloud deck pressures and VMRs drawn from JWST posterior uncertainties, showing the resulting shifts in correlation peaks and their effect on quoted significances. These additions will be included in the revised results and discussion sections. revision: yes

  2. Referee: [Methods on template construction] Templates are constructed directly from JWST retrieval parameters (including cloud decks and VMRs). While this grounds the analysis in external data, the sensitivity to cloud inclusion (explicitly shown) means that any systematic bias in the JWST cloud model could shift the correlation peak and affect the quoted S/N values. An assessment of how variations in JWST priors propagate to the ground-based results would strengthen the confirmation claim.

    Authors: We agree that explicit propagation of JWST prior variations would strengthen the confirmation. In revision we will add a new figure and accompanying text showing the effect of sampling cloud deck pressure and molecular VMRs from the JWST retrieval posteriors (within 1-sigma ranges). For each sampled template we will recompute the cross-correlation functions and report the resulting distribution of S/N values for CO and H2O, demonstrating that the detections remain above 4 sigma across the explored range and quantifying any systematic shifts in the Kp-vsys peak location. revision: yes

Circularity Check

0 steps flagged

No significant circularity; detections grounded in external JWST templates

full rationale

The paper builds cross-correlation templates from independent JWST retrieval results on atmospheric parameters, cloud decks, and volume mixing ratios rather than deriving or fitting them from the VLT/CRIRES+ observations themselves. Reported CO and H2O detections arise from cross-correlating the new ground-based spectra against these external templates, with sensitivity tests performed by varying cloud inclusion and VMRs. No load-bearing step reduces to a self-definition, fitted input renamed as prediction, or self-citation chain; the central claims remain externally benchmarked and falsifiable against the prior space-based data.

Axiom & Free-Parameter Ledger

0 free parameters · 2 axioms · 0 invented entities

The central claim rests on the validity of cross-correlation templates derived from external JWST atmospheric retrievals and standard assumptions in high-resolution transmission spectroscopy (e.g., line lists, telluric correction, and orbital parameters). No new free parameters are introduced in the abstract; cloud inclusion is tested as a discrete choice rather than a fitted parameter.

axioms (2)
  • domain assumption Atmospheric parameters (volume mixing ratios, cloud properties) retrieved from JWST data are sufficiently accurate to serve as templates for VLT/CRIRES+ cross-correlation.
    Stated in the methods summary: templates are created based on retrieval results from JWST studies.
  • standard math Standard high-resolution spectroscopy assumptions hold (accurate line lists, proper removal of telluric and stellar lines, known orbital parameters).
    Implicit in any cross-correlation transmission spectroscopy analysis; not explicitly challenged in the abstract.

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