REVIEW 4 major objections 4 minor 207 references
Most photometrically selected 'post-starburst' galaxies are still forming stars.
Reviewed by Pith at T0; open to challenge. T0 means a machine referee read the full paper against a public rubric. the ladder, T0–T4 →
Most photometrically selected post-starburst galaxies in the FIREbox simulation are star-forming impostors, implying that AGN feedback is required to explain a long-lived quenched post-starburst population.
T0 review reviewed 2026-08-05 challenge →
load-bearing objection Solid simulation result on photometric PSB impostors, but the headline AGN-feedback claim rests on a broken Bayesian calculation that should not be cited as is. the 4 major comments →
The Nature of Post-Starburst Galaxies: Real Deal or Masquerading Impostors?
The pith
A machine-rendered reading of the paper's core claim, the machinery that carries it, and where it could break.
The reading
Core claim
On the paper's own terms, photometrically selected post-starburst galaxies in FIREbox at z = 0.7 and z = 1 are mostly star-forming galaxies masquerading as recently quenched systems. Only about 8 per cent of selected PSBs have both star-formation rates and molecular gas fractions below the star-forming main sequence, and about 92 per cent fail the physical definition of a true PSB, which the paper takes to be a quenched after-starburst galaxy. Among galaxies that genuinely are temporarily quenched after a starburst, only about 33 per cent would be picked out by the photometric criteria. Combining the simulated selection rates with observed fractions of PSBs and quenched galaxies in a three-p
What carries the argument
The central machinery is a Bayesian decomposition of the galaxy population into three exhaustive classes: star-forming galaxies (SF), true PSBs in the green valley (GV), and long-term quiescent galaxies (Q). The paper derives an expression for the impostor fraction F_Im = P(Im|PSB), using FIREbox to supply P(PSB|SF) = 0.087, the chance that a star-forming galaxy is photometrically selected as a PSB, and using observed PSB and quenched fractions for P(PSB) and P(Q). The assumption P(PSB|GV) = 1, together with the FIREbox-derived value P(PSB|q-ASB) = 0.328, carries the inference that most selected PSBs are contaminants and that the residual true PSB population must be quenched mostly by non-st
Load-bearing premise
The chain of inference assumes that every true post-starburst galaxy in the real Universe would be caught by the photometric selection, and that the selection and contamination rates measured in FIREbox, especially P(PSB|SF) = 0.087 and the quenched-after-starburst fraction 0.023, match reality.
What would settle it
A complete observational census of a large photometrically selected PSB sample with deep mid-infrared or radio star-formation tracers and CO measurements could settle the claim: if most selected PSBs turn out to be genuinely quenched, with an impostor fraction far below the predicted 80-90 per cent, or if the measured rate at which star-forming galaxies appear as PSBs is far below 9 per cent, the Bayesian inference collapses. Finding that gas-rich PSBs are overwhelmingly star-forming would support it.
If this is right
- Photometric PSB samples contain a large contamination by star-forming galaxies; gas-rich PSBs detected in CO are almost exclusively impostors.
- True PSBs should have molecular gas masses below typical ALMA CO detection limits, with longer depletion times, about 1.2 Gyr versus about 600 Myr for impostors.
- The near-to-mid infrared luminosity ratio can separate true PSBs from impostors, with an optimal rest-frame ratio of about 3.85 x 10^3.
- At high stellar mass, PSBs are preferentially interacting or major-merger systems; at low stellar mass, temporary quenching driven by stellar feedback dominates.
- Stellar feedback alone cannot produce the observed long-lived quenched PSB population; about 73 per cent of true PSBs are predicted to require black hole or AGN feedback.
Where Pith is reading between the lines
- The paper's Bayesian estimate assumes perfect selection of true PSBs, P(PSB|GV) = 1; if real photometric surveys miss a sizable fraction of true PSBs, the predicted AGN fraction could fall, so this completeness is the swing factor.
- A direct observational census of the rate at which star-forming galaxies are selected as PSBs, P(PSB|SF), would provide an independent test of the contamination rate that drives the argument.
- The same decomposition could be applied to spectroscopically selected PSB samples; FIREbox PSBs have H-alpha emission too strong for spectroscopic PSB cuts, suggesting spectroscopy alone may not remove impostors.
- Simulations that include black hole feedback should produce a longer-lived, hydrogen-poor PSB population than FIREbox; checking that prediction is a natural next step beyond this paper.
Editorial analysis
A structured set of objections, weighed in public.
Referee Report
Summary. The paper uses the FIREbox cosmological simulation at z=0.7 and z=1, with SKIRT radiative transfer and cloudy emission-line modelling, to select post-starburst galaxies (PSBs) via the Kriek et al. (2010) photometric criteria. The authors find that PSBs represent about 9.2 per cent of galaxies with Mstar > 5e9 Msun, but only about 8 per cent of the photometrically selected PSBs are 'true' PSBs in the sense of being currently quenched after-starburst galaxies (q-ASBs); most selected PSBs are star-forming 'impostors'. They characterise gas fractions, star-formation histories, infrared colours, and interaction fractions, and conclude that low-mass PSBs can be temporarily quenched by stellar feedback while high-mass PSBs are preferentially merger-driven. Combining FIREbox's P(PSB|SF) with observational estimates of the impostor fraction and quenched-galaxy fraction in a Bayesian framework, the paper claims that more than 70 per cent of true PSBs in the Universe require an additional quenching channel, most likely AGN feedback.
Significance. The simulation-side result that photometrically selected PSBs in FIREbox are predominantly star-forming contaminants is valuable and has direct implications for interpreting CO and mid-IR observations of PSB candidates. The comparison with the SQuIGGLE sample and the use of full radiative transfer plus emission-line modelling in a cosmological volume are notable strengths. The proposed near-to-mid infrared ratio as a separator of true PSBs from impostors is a useful, testable prediction. However, the distinctive Universe-level claim that >70 per cent of true PSBs require AGN feedback is currently not reproducible from the equations and inputs given in Section 4, owing to a reciprocal error in Eq. (10), a contradictory treatment of P(PSB|GV), and inconsistent quoted values in Section 4.2. These issues are load-bearing for the abstract and conclusions, so the paper should undergo a major revision even though the core simulation analysis is sound.
major comments (4)
- [§4.1, Eq. (10)] Equation (10) is not consistent with the derivation in Appendix A. From Eqs. (A1)-(A5) and F_Im = P(PSB|SF)P(SF)/P(PSB), one obtains P(GV) = (1-P(Q)) / [1 + (P(PSB|GV)/P(PSB|SF)) * F_Im/(1-F_Im)]. The printed Eq. (10) has (1-F_Im)/F_Im. With the stated inputs F_Im=0.27, P(Q)=0.5, P(PSB|SF)=0.087, the printed formula gives P(GV)=0.016 for P(PSB|GV)=1; the corrected formula gives P(GV)=0.095. The text's quoted P(GV)=0.084 is not obtained from either formula with these inputs; it corresponds instead to F_Im=0.30 with P(PSB|GV)=1. Since P(GV) feeds directly into Eq. (12), the '73 per cent' AGN figure is not reproducible as printed.
- [§4.1, text near Eqs. (9)-(10)] The framework assumes 'true PSBs are always observationally identified as PSBs, i.e. P(PSB|GV)=1', but the numerical evaluation immediately uses P(PSB|GV)=P(PSB|q-ASB)=0.328. These are mutually incompatible assumptions. The simulation value 0.328 is the measured completeness of the Kriek selection for q-ASBs; if it is used, the P(PSB|GV)=1 assumption must be dropped. With the corrected Eq. (10), P(GV) changes from 0.095 (P(PSB|GV)=1) to 0.209 (P(PSB|GV)=0.328), and P(AGN|GV) changes from about 0.76 to 0.89. The paper cannot quote 8.4 per cent and 73 per cent as derived quantities while using two contradictory values of P(PSB|GV).
- [§4.2, first and second paragraphs] The text first states that for F_Im=0.27, about 63 per cent of true PSBs must be quenched by additional mechanisms, and then, a few sentences later, says 'Plugging these numbers into Equation (12), we obtain that about 73 per cent'. The same stated inputs cannot yield both numbers. The 63 per cent has no derivation in the text; the 73 per cent requires P(GV)=0.084, which is not a valid result of Eq. (10) with the stated inputs (see Major Comment 1). The authors should recompute P(AGN|GV) with a consistent set of inputs and state which equation and parameter values produce the final number.
- [§4.2 and Table 1] The Bayesian inputs P(q-ASB)=0.023 and P(PSB|q-ASB)=0.328 are estimated from roughly 6 q-ASB galaxies among the 266 galaxies in the sample, yet they enter Eq. (12) directly through P(GV∩TQ). No uncertainty is propagated to the quoted AGN fraction. Given the small count, the point estimate is fragile: for example, with P(GV)=0.095, a factor-of-2 increase in P(q-ASB) changes P(AGN|GV) from about 0.76 to 0.52. The paper should report bootstrapped or posterior intervals for the AGN fraction, and the abstract/conclusion should be worded accordingly.
minor comments (4)
- [§5 and §2.2] The summary states the sample is Mstar > 3e9 Msun, while the methods and Table 1 use Mstar >= 5e9 Msun. Please harmonise the mass threshold throughout.
- [§5, item (vi)] Item (vi) says interactions are especially important for Mstar < 3e10 Msun, which appears reversed relative to the Abstract and Section 3.3, where the high-mass bin shows the stronger PSB versus non-PSB contrast. Please check whether the inequality should be reversed.
- [Figure 15 caption] The caption uses 'P(GV|TQ)P(TQ) = P(GV∩TQ)'. This notation is confusing: the expression should simply be P(GV∩TQ). Please make the notation for the joint probability consistent across the text and figures.
- [Eq. (9)] The numerator of Eq. (9) has an ambiguous layout: '1 - P(PSB)/P(PSB|GV) - P(Q)' should be typeset with explicit parentheses to distinguish it from '1 - P(PSB)/(P(PSB|GV)-P(Q))'. As written, the equation is difficult to parse and appears inconsistent with the derivation in Appendix A.
Circularity Check
No significant circularity; the central FIREbox measurement and Bayesian extrapolation are self-contained, though the printed AGN-feedback number is not reproducible from the stated equations.
full rationale
The paper's core simulation result — that ~92% of photometrically selected PSBs in FIREbox are impostors — is a direct measurement from the simulation, not derived from fitting or from a cited result. The Bayesian extrapolation to the Universe is a forward calculation using FIREbox-derived inputs (P(PSB|SF)=0.087, P(q-ASB)=0.023), observed inputs (F_Im=0.27 from Baron et al. 2023, P(Q)=0.5), and an explicitly stated assumption (P(PSB|GV)=1). The quoted 73% AGN-feedback fraction is a computed output, not an input or a renamed known quantity, so no step reduces to its own inputs by construction. The paper does contain internal numerical inconsistencies: Eq. (10) appears to invert the F_Im/(1-F_Im) factor compared to a re-derivation from Eq. (9) and Appendix A; the text simultaneously quotes P(PSB|GV)=0.328 and assumes P(PSB|GV)=1; and the quoted P(GV)=0.084 matches F_Im=0.30 rather than the stated 0.27. These are arithmetic/typographical correctness issues, not circularity. Self-citations (Feldmann et al. 2023, Cenci et al. 2024a,b) are used for simulation validation and supporting statements, but the central claim does not rest on an unverified self-cited uniqueness theorem or on a self-citation chain. Therefore no substantial circularity is present; the score reflects only minor, non-load-bearing self-citation.
Axiom & Free-Parameter Ledger
free parameters (6)
- sSFR threshold for quenched classification =
3e-11 yr^-1
- Fiducial aperture radius =
7 kpc
- Projection classification threshold =
1/3 of 16 projections (at least 6)
- Interaction classification thresholds =
qstar>1:4 major, qstar>1:10 minor; D<20, 50, 100 kpc
- SFR averaging time =
20 Myr (also 5, 100 Myr)
- Burst age window =
150 Myr around peak SFR
axioms (6)
- domain assumption FIRE-2 physics with no AGN feedback is a faithful representation of star-forming galaxies and stellar feedback at z=0.7-1.
- domain assumption The Kriek et al. (2010) medium-band color criteria applied to mock SEDs identify the same galaxies as observational PSB selection.
- ad hoc to paper The galaxy population is partitioned into three disjoint exhaustive classes: star-forming, green-valley (true PSB), and quiescent (Eq. A1).
- ad hoc to paper P(PSB|GV)=1, i.e., all true PSBs are photometrically selected as PSBs.
- ad hoc to paper P(AGN|SF)=0 and P(AGN|Q)=1, i.e., AGN feedback does not operate in star-forming galaxies and fully operates in quiescent galaxies.
- domain assumption Observational estimates P(PSB)=0.05, P(Q)=0.5, F_Im=0.27 are representative of the z~0.7-1 Universe.
Cite this review
Pith. "Pith review of The Nature of Post-Starburst Galaxies: Real Deal or Masquerading Impostors?." pith.science (2026). https://pith.science/paper/N374TDH5
@misc{pith2026250900146,
author = {Pith},
title = {Pith review of: The Nature of Post-Starburst Galaxies: Real Deal or Masquerading Impostors?},
year = {2026},
howpublished = {\url{https://pith.science/paper/N374TDH5}},
note = {Machine review of arXiv:2509.00146}
}
abstract
Post-starburst galaxies (PSBs) are a population of galaxies with spectral and photometric features indicative of rapid quenching following a recent starburst. The origin and nature of PSBs are currently debated. For example, a number of observed PSBs unexpectedly host substantial molecular gas despite their low inferred star-formation activity. Furthermore, the relative roles of galaxy interactions and quenching mechanisms in PSBs remain unclear. We study PSBs at $z=0.7$ and $z=1$ in the FIREbox cosmological simulation, selecting them primarily via their rest-frame optical photometric properties. The fraction of PSBs in FIREbox broadly agrees with observations, although some candidates are clear impostors with star-formation rates comparable to star-forming galaxies of similar mass. Impostors are rich in molecular gas and have a larger near-to-mid infrared flux ratios compared to quenched PSBs in the sample. The role of galaxy interactions of PSBs in FIREbox depends on their stellar mass. At low stellar masses ($\lesssim 10^{10}~\mathrm{M}_\odot$), PSBs have interaction fractions comparable to those of non-PSBs in the simulation, consistent with a scenario in which stellar feedback and gas consumption drive temporary quenching of star formation. At higher stellar masses ($\gtrsim 10^{10}~\mathrm{M}_\odot$), PSBs are preferentially interacting systems compared to non-PSBs, with major mergers providing the dominant contribution. We conclude that stellar feedback and galaxy interactions in FIREbox can produce galaxies with observational properties akin to those of observed PSBs, many of which are actively forming stars. Additional quenching channels, such as massive black hole feedback, are likely required to explain a long-lived, quenched population of PSBs.
Figures
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This paper was first reviewed by deepseek-v4-flash on August 5, 2026.
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