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What is the True HI Gas Content in Massive Quiescent Galaxies in the Local Universe?

T0 review · 3 major / 5 minor · reviewed 2026-08-04 · deepseek-v4-flash

Pith's one-line read Deep 21-cm observations show that most nearby massive quiescent galaxies are far poorer in atomic hydrogen than previous surveys implied, with a stacked upper limit of about 0.03% of stellar mass for the non-detected majority.

desk verdict First deep HI survey of a representative massive-quiescent sample; the two-thirds HI-poor claim is plausible but rests on upper limits and an unquantified FAST flux-loss correction. read the letter →

arxiv 2510.15145 v2 pith:FMRCXGNS submitted 2025-10-16 astro-ph.GA

classification astro-ph.GA
keywords atomichydrogenHI21-cmlinequiescentgalaxiesgasdeficiencygalaxyquenchingradioobservationsspectralstackingsatellite
verification ladder T0 review T1 audit T2 compute T3 formal

The pith

A machine-rendered reading of the paper's core claim, the machinery that carries it, and where it could break.

The reading

Massive galaxies that have stopped forming stars have long been known to contain little atomic hydrogen, but exactly how little has been hard to pin down because most surveys are either too shallow or biased toward certain galaxy shapes. This paper reports deep 21-cm line observations of 78 nearby massive quiescent galaxies selected only by stellar mass and colour, with no morphological preselection. Roughly two-thirds of the sample are not detected down to a gas fraction of about 0.4% of stellar mass, and stacking those non-detections yields a 3-sigma upper limit near 0.03% (log M_HI/M* < -3.46). The detected third follows the normal relation between gas fraction and galaxy properties. The authors take this as evidence that extreme atomic-gas poverty is a general property of the massive quiescent population, not something confined to early-type galaxies, and that neither galaxy shape nor environment alone can fully explain it.

What carries the argument

The measurements rest on deep single-pointing 21-cm spectroscopy with a very large single-dish telescope, reaching 5-sigma sensitivity of log(M_HI/M*) = -2.4 for the full sample and -3 for a subset. The second essential tool is spectral stacking: co-adding the undetected spectra to reach a population-average 3-sigma limit of log(M_HI/M*) < -3.46. Environmental characterisation uses projected cross-correlation functions, background-subtracted neighbour counts, and central-versus-satellite classification in a galaxy group catalogue; these provide the paper's evidence on how environment relates to gas content.

What would settle it

Observe a representative sample of ~20 of the 44 non-detected galaxies with a synthesis interferometer that can recover extended, low-surface-brightness 21-cm emission. If a significant fraction show HI disks or tidal tails beyond the single beam, the quoted 63% HI-poor fraction and the stacked -3.46 limit would be overestimated.

Watch

Extended reading notes

Core claim

The central claim is that the majority of local massive quiescent galaxies are far poorer in atomic hydrogen than previous surveys implied, and that this extreme poverty is a general property of the population rather than a quirk of early-type morphology. From 21-cm spectra of 78 galaxies chosen by stellar mass (above 10^10 solar masses) and colour (NUV-r > 5), the authors detect only one-third; the remaining two-thirds have upper limits below log(M_HI/M*) = -2.4, and a stack of the 44 non-detections gives a 3-sigma limit of log(M_HI/M*) < -3.46. The detected galaxies follow the scaling relations derived from shallower surveys, while the non-detections systematically fall far below the predi

Load-bearing premise

The paper's central numbers assume that a non-detection in a single radio pointing really means the galaxy has almost no atomic hydrogen, rather than that its hydrogen is spread over a region larger than the telescope beam.

Editorial extensions

If this is right

  • Most massive quiescent galaxies hold less than ~0.4% of their stellar mass in atomic hydrogen, and the non-detected majority is probably well below ~0.03% on average.
  • Existing empirical HI estimators calibrated on shallower, morphology-mixed samples systematically overpredict gas in this regime; they need a non-Gaussian scatter model or extra morphology/environment terms.
  • Since a large minority of HI-poor galaxies are centrals, gas removal cannot be exclusively an environmental process; internal feedback or cooling failure must also be able to strip the reservoir.
  • Early-type morphology is a necessary but insufficient condition for extreme HI poverty, so 'quenched must mean gas-poor' is empirically false in the other direction: some early types retain moderate HI.
  • The required depth for future surveys is set: detection limits near 0.1–0.01% of stellar mass are needed to map the full gas-fraction distribution of quiescent systems.

Reading between the lines

Editorial extensions of the paper, not claims the author makes directly.

  • The single-pointing strategy may undercount HI in galaxies with extended or lopsided disks; mapping a subsample with an interferometer would separate real poverty from beam-missed emission—a test the authors flag but do not perform.
  • The double-peaked distribution of gas fractions is consistent with two quenching channels—a gas-stripping channel for early types/satellites and a slower residual-gas channel for some centrals—which the paper leaves as an open possibility.
  • If the stacked limit holds, the non-detected galaxies have less than about 10^7 solar masses of atomic hydrogen; comparing that with their molecular gas, hot halo gas, and radio-AGN activity would discriminate between AGN feedback and shock-heating as the dominant gas-removal mechanism.
  • A direct extension would be to apply the same selection and depth at z ≈ 0.1–0.2 to see whether the extreme HI poverty is already in place shortly after quenching or develops later; current data only constrain the local endpoint.
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Editorial analysis

A structured set of objections, weighed in public.

Desk editor's note, referee report, and a circularity audit.

Referee Report

3 major / 5 minor

Summary. This paper presents FAST single-dish HI observations of 78 massive quiescent galaxies selected from NSA by M* > 10^10 Msun and NUV-r > 5, with 34 detections and 44 non-detections reaching log(M_HI/M*) ≈ -2.4 to -3. The central claim is that roughly two-thirds (63% ± 7%, 49/78) of the sample are HI-poor, defined as log(M_HI/M*) < -2.4, and that stacking the non-detections gives a 3σ upper limit of log(M_HI/M*) < -3.46. The authors compare their sample with xGASS and ATLAS3D, examine dependencies on color, sSFR, structure, morphology and environment, and conclude that early-type morphology and satellite status are important but not sufficient, implying additional quenching mechanisms. They also test the HI mass estimator of X. Li et al. (2022) and find that only the HI-detected third follows its predictions.

Significance. If the HI-poor fraction and stacked upper limit are robust, this is a valuable observational constraint: it extends evidence for extreme HI poverty beyond morphologically selected early-type galaxies to a representative massive-quiescent sample and provides a quantitative benchmark for gas-removal mechanisms. The paper is careful in several respects: it uses a random subset of a well-defined parent sample, provides deep limits, performs a stacking analysis, and explicitly compares FAST with ALFALFA to assess systematics. The environmental analysis based on cross-correlation functions, neighbor counts, and central/satellite classification is a useful addition. However, the headline fraction rests almost entirely on non-detections, and the acknowledged FAST/ALFALFA flux deficit is not propagated into the HI-poor classification. The abstract and body also disagree on the achieved sensitivities. These issues must be resolved before the central claim can be accepted.

major comments (3)
  1. [§3.1 and Appendix A (Eq. A2; Figs. 10-11)] The claim that roughly two-thirds (63%) of the sample are HI-poor rests on 44 non-detections plus 5 detections below log(M_HI/M*) = -2.4. Appendix A reports that FAST integrated fluxes are 20-30% lower than ALFALFA for 5 of 6 comparison galaxies, that for id=24 the HI disk is larger than the FAST beam, and that the authors 'cannot rule out potential flux loss from extended HI components beyond the HI radius.' The text asserts this 'does not affect the qualitative conclusions,' but no quantitative test is given. A systematic flux deficit of 0.1-0.15 dex applied to the upper limits could move a substantial fraction of the 44 non-detections across the -2.4 threshold; moving roughly 10 objects would bring the HI-poor fraction below 50%. Please propagate the FAST/ALFALFA calibration offset into the individual and stacked limits, quote a systematic uncertainty on the 63% fraction, and state ho
  2. [Abstract vs. §2.1 and §5] The abstract states that the observations reach log(M_HI/M*) = -2.6 for 55 targets and -3.2 for 23 targets, while §2.1 and §5 state that the first round reached -2.4 for 74 targets and -3 for 4 targets, with a follow-up of 19 non-detections to -3. These numbers are mutually inconsistent. Since the sensitivity limits directly determine which galaxies are classified as HI-poor and the depth of the stacking limit, this discrepancy must be corrected and the abstract aligned with the body.
  3. [§3.1-§3.3 and Figs. 3-5] The conclusion that the HI mass fraction shows no clear correlation with sSFR, NUV-r, concentration, or stellar surface density is based primarily on visual inspection of plots in which 44 of 78 objects are upper limits and several detections lie near the -2.4 threshold. With this degree of censoring, a visual statement is not a robust null result. I ask the authors to add a quantitative censored-data analysis (e.g., survival regression or a likelihood that incorporates upper limits) or to soften the claim to 'no significant correlation is detected with the current sample,' clearly stating the sensitivity of this conclusion to the systematic flux issue.
minor comments (5)
  1. [Appendix A heading] The heading reads 'FAST HI OBSERVATION AND DATA DEDUCTION'; 'DEDUCTION' should be 'REDUCTION'.
  2. [Abstract and §2.1] The abstract lists log sSFR < -11 as a selection criterion, but §2.1 states the sample is selected only by M* and NUV-r; the sSFR condition is checked a posteriori. Please make these statements consistent.
  3. [§3.1] The sentence 'approximately two-thirds of the sample galaxies remain undetected in HI' is inaccurate: 44/78 = 56% are non-detections, while the HI-poor fraction including the five low-mass detections is 63%. Rephrase to refer to the HI-poor classification rather than non-detections.
  4. [Appendix A, Figs. 10-11] The claim of a 20-30% systematic offset includes sources with poor ALFALFA quality flags (id=3 and id=75). Please state how the offset changes if these two low-SNR sources are excluded, to show that the conclusion is not driven by them.
  5. [Eq. A2 and §3.1] The assumed line width W=300 km/s in Eq. (A2) is a conservative choice, but the text should note explicitly that narrower real lines would yield lower (more restrictive) upper limits, so the assumption cannot bias the sample toward HI-poor classification.

Circularity Check

0 steps flagged · score 0.0 of 10

No significant circularity: the central HI-poor fraction is a direct observational measurement, independent of the authors' earlier estimator.

full rationale

The paper's central claims rest on FAST detections, non-detections, and a stacked upper limit (log M_HI/M* < -3.46), which are direct data products. The X. Li et al. (2022) estimator enters only as a comparison baseline for a predicted HI distribution; it is not fitted to the FAST data and does not determine the measured non-detection fraction. The HI-poor threshold of log M_HI/M* = -2.4 is tied to the survey's designed 5-sigma sensitivity, so counting non-detections as HI-poor is a sensitivity-driven observational classification rather than a fitted parameter renamed as a prediction. The Appendix A FAST/ALFALFA flux offset is an acknowledged observational bias and a correctness concern, not circularity. Self-citations to X. Li et al. (2022, 2024) appear in comparisons and discussion, but they are not load-bearing for the main measurement: the conclusion that the estimator under-predicts the extreme HI-poor population follows from comparing independent FAST upper limits with model predictions. No step reduces by construction to its own inputs.

Assumptions & free parameters 2 free parameters · 6 assumptions · 0 invented entities

No new physical entities are postulated. The paper's central claims depend on standard radio-astronomy calibration assumptions, catalog accuracy, and two hand-chosen analysis thresholds (HI-poor boundary and assumed line width). The known FAST-vs-ALFALFA flux offset acts as an additional, unquantified systematic assumption.

free parameters (2)
  • HI-poor threshold log(M_HI/M*) = -2.4 = -2.4 (chosen by hand)
    Classification boundary chosen to match the 90% contour of the predicted distribution; not fitted but defines the headline fraction of 63% HI-poor.
  • Assumed HI line width W = 300 km/s
    Used to convert rms to mass upper limits and detection depths; if true line widths differ, the limits shift.
assumptions (6)
  • standard math HI mass formula from integrated flux (Meyer et al. 2017) is correct for these sources
    Used in Appendix A, Eq. A1, to convert flux integrals to HI masses.
  • domain assumption NSA stellar masses and NUV-r colors are accurate
    Sample selection depends on M* > 10^10 M_sun and NUV-r > 5 from the NSA catalog (§2.1).
  • domain assumption SED fitting with CIGALE yields reliable SFRs
    Used to verify the quiescent nature of the sample (§2.1).
  • ad hoc to paper No significant HI confusion from companion galaxies within 3' and 500 km/s
    Authors checked companions but could not assign redshifts to 8 dwarf neighbors; excluding them does not change their conclusions (§2.1).
  • domain assumption Yang et al. (2007) group catalog correctly identifies central/satellite status
    Central/satellite fractions in Table 2 rely on this catalog plus the authors' own isolated-galaxy rule (§3.3).
  • domain assumption FAST flux calibration and gain parameters are accurate
    Flux calibration uses the noise diode and gain parameters from Jiang et al. (2020), Appendix A.

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Pith. "Pith review of What is the True HI Gas Content in Massive Quiescent Galaxies in the Local Universe?." pith.science (2026). https://pith.science/paper/FMRCXGNS

@misc{pith2026251015145,
  author       = {Pith},
  title        = {Pith review of: What is the True HI Gas Content in Massive Quiescent Galaxies in the Local Universe?},
  year         = {2026},
  howpublished = {\url{https://pith.science/paper/FMRCXGNS}},
  note         = {Machine review of arXiv:2510.15145}
}
abstract

While massive quiescent galaxies are known to be poor in atomic hydrogen (HI), their true HI content remains poorly constrained due to the limited sensitivity and morphological biases of existing surveys. We present deep HI observations using the Five-hundred-meter Aperture Spherical radio Telescope (FAST) for a representative sample of 78 low-redshift massive quiescent galaxies, selected by stellar mass ($M_\ast > 10^{10} M_\odot$), color (NUV$-r > 5$), and specific star formation rate ($\rm \log sSFR < -11\ yr^{-1}$). Our observations reach a remarkable sensitivity of $\log(M_{HI}/M_\ast) = -2.6$ for 55 targets and $\log(M_{HI}/M_\ast) = -3.2$ for 23 targets. We find that one-third of the sample follows the HI scaling relation derived from previous surveys, while the remaining two-thirds exhibit significantly lower HI content. The HI mass fraction shows no clear correlation with specific star formation rate, NUV$-r$ color index, stellar surface mass density, and concentration. Our FAST sample shows remarkable similarity to the $ATLAS^{3D}$ sample which only includes early-type galaxies, both in its high fraction of HI-poor galaxies and its high satellite fraction among HI-poor galaxies. These results suggest that while both early-type morphology and environment may contribute to the extreme HI deficiency, neither factor alone fully explains the observed gas depletion, indicating that additional physical mechanisms must be responsible for the extreme HI deficiency prevalent in massive quiescent galaxies.

Figures

Figures reproduced from arXiv: 2510.15145 by the authors.

Figure 1
Figure 1. Hi mass fraction as a function of NUV−r (left) and specific star formation rate (right). The gray contours represent the SDSS volume-limited sample. The magenta contours represent the ALFALFA 100 percent sample. The green points indicate the xGASS representative sample. The orange stars denote the ATLAS3D sample. Hi upper limits are shown as downward arrows. The red regions highlight the parameter space of quiescent… view at source ↗
Figure 2
Figure 2. NUV−r (left) and Specific star formation rate (right) versus stellar mass. The gray contours represent the SDSS volume-limited sample. Contours from innermost to outermost include 15%, 30%, 45%, 60%, 75%, 90%, and 95% of the volume-limited sample, respectively. The colored symbols indicate the Hi samples (xGASS: green dots; FAST: blue dots; ATLAS3D: orange stars). The black dashed lines represent our sample selectio… view at source ↗
Figure 3
Figure 3. Hi fraction as a function of NUV−r and specific star formation rate. The gray contours represent the SDSS volume-limited sample. The colored symbols indicate the Hi samples (xGASS: green dots; FAST: blue dots; ATLAS3D in the Virgo cluster: red stars; ATLAS3Doutside the Virgo cluster: orange stars). Upper limits are denoted as downward arrows. The result of the Hi spectral stacking analysis for FAST Hi non-detections… view at source ↗
Figures from the paper (10 more)
Figure 4
Figure 4. Figure 4: Hi fraction as a function of concentration and stellar surface mass density. The gray contours represent the volume-limited sample. The FAST sample is denoted as blue points. The orange(red) symbols indicate ATLAS3D galaxies in(outside) the Virgo cluster. The xGASS sam…
Figure 5
Figure 5. Figure 5: Left: Hi fraction as a function of T-type. Colored symbols represent different samples (blue: FAST, orange: ATLAS3D, green: xGASS). Hi non-detections are shown as arrows. The gray contours indicate the SDSS volume-limited sample. The horizontal dashed lines correspond …
Figure 6
Figure 6. Figure 6: Projected cross correlation function wp(rp) of the FAST(left), the FAST early-type galaxy(middle), and the ATLAS3D(right) samples) samples. Blue/red solid lines indicate Hi-middle/poor galaxies. The wp(rp) of ATLAS3D Hi-poor galaxies is repeated in every panel as black…
Figure 7
Figure 7. Figure 7: Neighbour counts NC (< Rp) of the FAST(left), the FAST early-type galaxy(middle), and the ATLAS3D(right) samples. The r-band magnitude limit is rlim = 19.5. Blue/red solid lines indicate Hi-middle/poor galaxies. The NC (< Rp) of ATLAS3D Hi-poor galaxies is repeated in …
Figure 8
Figure 8. Figure 8: Comparison between the observed Hi mass and the predicted Hi mass. The quenched Hi-rich galaxies in X. Li et al. (2024) are denoted as red points. The FAST sample is in blue (points for Hi detections and arrows for Hi non-detections). The black solid line indicates the…
Figure 9
Figure 9. Figure 9: Hi spectrum (left sub-panel) and optical image (right sub-panel) of Hi-detected galaxies in the FAST sample. The blue solid line represents the baseline-subtracted Hi spectrum. The vertical black dashed line marks the expected frequency of the HI 21cm line derived from…
Figure 9
Figure 9. Figure 9: Continued [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p021_9.png]
Figure 9
Figure 9. Figure 9: Continued. of Hi mass is estimated following D. V. Stark et al. (2021): MHi,lim M⊙ = 3 × 2.35 × 105  D Mpc2  rms Jy  × s W km s−1   dV km s−1  (A2) where W is the line width, which we assume W = 300 km s−1 [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p022_9.png]
Figure 10
Figure 10. Figure 10: Comparison of Hi integrated flux (left) and Hi mass (right) measured by FAST and ALFALFA. The legend shows the id of each galaxy. The black dashed line indicates the one-to-one line. 1395 1396 1397 1398 1399 1400 1401 Frequency [MHz] -5.0 -2.5 0.0 2.5 5.0 7.5 Flux [mJ…
Figure 11
Figure 11. Figure 11: Comparison of Hi spectrum measured by FAST(red) and ALFALFA(blue). The vertical dashed line marks the expected frequency of the HI 21cm line derived from optical redshift. The black solid line in the middle-right panel represents the Hi spectrum measured in a single A…

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