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arxiv: 2511.20068 · v2 · submitted 2025-11-25 · 💻 cs.CV

PRADA: Probability-Ratio-Based Attribution and Detection of Autoregressive-Generated Images

Pith reviewed 2026-05-17 04:50 UTC · model grok-4.3

classification 💻 cs.CV
keywords autoregressive image generationsynthetic image detectionimage attributionprobability ratiotoken sequencedeepfake detectionAI-generated imagesconditional probability
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The pith

The ratio of conditional to unconditional token probabilities uniquely marks images generated by a specific autoregressive model.

A machine-rendered reading of the paper's core claim, the machinery that carries it, and where it could break.

The paper introduces PRADA, a method that detects autoregressive-generated images and attributes them to their source model by examining the ratio of conditional and unconditional probabilities over the image's token sequence. This ratio produces patterns that differ systematically between images from one model, images from other models, and real photographs. The authors calibrate a simple per-model score from these ratios and apply thresholds to perform detection and attribution. Experiments demonstrate effectiveness on eight class-to-image and four text-to-image autoregressive generators. The approach is presented as interpretable because the signal derives directly from the model's own probability computations during generation.

Core claim

Whenever an image is generated by a particular autoregressive model, its probability ratio shows unique characteristics which are not present for images generated by other models or real images. These characteristics are exploited for threshold-based attribution and detection by calibrating a simple, model-specific score function based on the ratio of the model's conditional and unconditional probability for the autoregressive token sequence representing the given image.

What carries the argument

The ratio of a model's conditional probability to its unconditional probability for the autoregressive token sequence of the image.

If this is right

  • A single probability-ratio calculation per image enables attribution to one of several known autoregressive models without retraining complex classifiers.
  • The same ratio signal separates autoregressive-generated images from real images using model-specific thresholds.
  • The approach applies uniformly to both class-to-image and text-to-image autoregressive generators after per-model calibration.
  • Because the signal comes from the model's native probability estimates, it provides a direct link to the generation process itself.

Where Pith is reading between the lines

These are editorial extensions of the paper, not claims the author makes directly.

  • The same probability-ratio idea could be tested on sequential generators in other domains such as audio or video to see whether analogous signatures appear.
  • If the ratio patterns persist across model versions, they might serve as a lightweight fingerprint for tracing model families without full access to training data.
  • Pairing the ratio score with existing visual or statistical detectors could yield hybrid systems that remain effective when one cue is adversarially suppressed.

Load-bearing premise

The probability-ratio characteristics are sufficiently unique to each source model and stable enough across images to support reliable threshold-based detection and attribution even for unseen images and models.

What would settle it

If the calibrated score distributions for images from different autoregressive models overlap substantially or if scores for images from a new model fall into the range of a different model or of real images, the threshold-based attribution and detection would fail.

Figures

Figures reproduced from arXiv: 2511.20068 by Asja Fischer, Henning Petzka, Jonas Ricker, Simon Damm.

Figure 1
Figure 1. Figure 1: Overview of our proposed method. For any given image, PRADA extracts conditional and unconditional log-likelihoods for each token and assigns a score to their balanced ratio ∆α (xt, c). A lightweight calibration step provides a small, model-specific scoring function fθ : R → R. For next-scale prediction models, the scale-wise average of token scores is linearly combined with weights wi to obtain the final … view at source ↗
Figure 2
Figure 2. Figure 2: Distributions of features derived from log probabilities of AR image generators for real and generated images. While neither conditional probabilities (1st col), nor probability ratios (2nd col) or ICAS (3rd col) consistently tell real and generated images apart, our PRADA score separates their distributions. Learning a simple, token-wise scoring keeps our approach lightweight and interpretable. Scale Weig… view at source ↗
Figure 3
Figure 3. Figure 3: Visualization of the scale dependence. While higher scales are useful for VAR-d30, they are harmful for Infinity-2B, especially for ICAS. PRADA Score We can now combine all three compo￾nents (probability ratio balancing, token-wise scoring, and scale weighting) to obtain the PRADA score for an im￾age represented by tokens x. We assume that tokens are 2We find that weighting the means per scale rather than … view at source ↗
Figure 4
Figure 4. Figure 4: Attribution performance of PRADA. We report the confusion matrices (normalized over rows and averaged over five calibra￾tion runs) for class-to-image and text-to-image models. PRADA achieves high performance across various AR image generators and is particularly effective against text-to-image models. problem than detection [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p007_4.png] view at source ↗
Figure 5
Figure 5. Figure 5: Robustness analysis for PRADA. We report the AUROC for images generated by class-to-image (top) and text-to-image models (bottom) under varying degrees of perturbation. number of hidden neurons in each layer of fθ. We provide detailed results of our ablation study in Appendix E [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p008_5.png] view at source ↗
Figure 6
Figure 6. Figure 6: Visualization of image perturbations used to analyze the robustness of the proposed method. From top to bottom: JPEG compression, center crop, Gaussian blur and Gaussian noise at different strengths. 2 [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p013_6.png] view at source ↗
Figure 7
Figure 7. Figure 7: Example images and PRADA scores for class-to-image models. ImageNet class labels (from left to right): 1 (goldfish), 28 (spotted salamander), 214 (Gordon setter), 604 (hourglass), 675 (moving van). 3 [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p014_7.png] view at source ↗
Figure 8
Figure 8. Figure 8: Example images and PRADA scores for class-to-image models (continued). 4 [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p015_8.png] view at source ↗
Figure 9
Figure 9. Figure 9: Example images and PRADA scores for text-to-image models. Generation prompts from Synthbuster [2] (from left to right): “statue of ‘Eros et Psyche’ in front of an ornamented glass window, in the style of museum, warm white balance”, “close-up of dark purple ´ tulips with large blooms high in the sun, soft-focus, 62mm f/4.8”, “a green grass glade surrounded by trees with lots of foliage”, “wrought iron brid… view at source ↗
Figure 10
Figure 10. Figure 10: Cumulative distributions of the log-probability ratio ∆(xt, c) over tokens for 200 random images and selected models. For all models, the log-probability ratio shows differences between real and generated images, but their differences are not uniform over different models. −4 −2 0 2 4 ∆(xt , c) −2.5 −2.0 −1.5 −1.0 −0.5 0.0 ICAS [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p018_10.png] view at source ↗
Figure 11
Figure 11. Figure 11: Token-wise scoring used by ICAS. In several scenarios, PRADA recovers a scoring function resembling the ICAS scor￾ing function. In this section, we visualize PRADA’s score function for different AR image generators and show how the learned parameters can help to understand the model’s probability distribution. We begin by reviewing why a uniform score function, such as ICAS, is not suitable for all models… view at source ↗
Figure 12
Figure 12. Figure 12: PRADA scoring for class-to-image models. The first column visualizes the differences in the cumulative distributions of α-balanced probability ratios ∆α (xt, c) over tokens for 100 random images, which are exploited by the scoring fθ(xt, c) in the second column. The third column visualizes fθ(xt, c) as function of conditional and unconditional likelihoods. The last column visualizes scale weights, showing… view at source ↗
Figure 13
Figure 13. Figure 13: PRADA scoring for class-to-image models (continued). stronger and more stable signal, and therefore a higher signal-to-noise ratio, than the earlier, coarser scales. As weight is still distributed across many scales, we also conclude that a single learnable function fθ can indeed work well across different scales. It remains to analyze a notable exception, namely Infinity-2B. Here, the finest scales recei… view at source ↗
Figure 14
Figure 14. Figure 14: PRADA scoring for text-to-image models. For additional context see the caption of [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p021_14.png] view at source ↗
Figure 15
Figure 15. Figure 15: Cancellation effect observed in the last two scales of Infinity-2B. We show heatmaps of ∆α (xt, c) for scale 12 vs. scale 13, for real and generates images (first 250 tokens per scale, over 1000 real and 1000 fake images). We observe that some tokens from real images cluster around ∆α (xt, c) ≈ 0 (left plot, top right corner). The negative scale weight w12 effectively eliminates the detrimental impacts ca… view at source ↗
Figure 16
Figure 16. Figure 16: Token-wise mean and standard deviation of ∆α (xt, c). Tokens are ordered from the coarsest to the finest scale and averaged over 10 000 real and 10 000 fake images for class-to-image models, and 1000 real and 1000 fake images for text-to-image models. We observe different behavior across scales, with coarser scales showing larger differences in the mean values, but also a larger standard deviation. This l… view at source ↗
Figure 17
Figure 17. Figure 17: Mean and standard deviation of ∆(xt, c) across scales. Comparing these to [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p023_17.png] view at source ↗
read the original abstract

Autoregressive (AR) image generation has recently emerged as a powerful paradigm for image synthesis. Leveraging the generation principle of large language models, they allow for efficiently generating deceptively real-looking images, further increasing the need for reliable detection methods. However, to date there is a lack of work specifically targeting the detection of images generated by AR image generators. In this work, we present PRADA (Probability-Ratio-Based Attribution and Detection of Autoregressive-Generated Images), a simple and interpretable approach that can reliably detect AR-generated images and attribute them to their respective source model. The key idea is to inspect the ratio of a model's conditional and unconditional probability for the autoregressive token sequence representing a given image. Whenever an image is generated by a particular model, its probability ratio shows unique characteristics which are not present for images generated by other models or real images. We exploit these characteristics for threshold-based attribution and detection by calibrating a simple, model-specific score function. Our experimental evaluation shows that PRADA is highly effective against eight class-to-image and four text-to-image models. We release our code and data at github.com/jonasricker/prada.

Editorial analysis

A structured set of objections, weighed in public.

Desk editor's note, referee report, simulated authors' rebuttal, and a circularity audit. Tearing a paper down is the easy half of reading it; the pith above is the substance, this is the friction.

Referee Report

2 major / 2 minor

Summary. The paper introduces PRADA, a method for detecting and attributing images generated by autoregressive (AR) models. It computes the ratio of a model's conditional probability to its unconditional probability over the token sequence of a given image and uses model-specific thresholds on this ratio for detection and source attribution. The central claim is that these ratios exhibit unique, stable characteristics for images from a particular AR generator that are absent in real images or outputs from other models. Experiments are reported on eight class-to-image and four text-to-image AR models, with code and data released.

Significance. If the probability-ratio signatures prove unique and stable, the work offers a lightweight, interpretable detection approach for the emerging class of AR image generators, addressing a gap left by methods focused on GANs or diffusion models. The open release of code and data is a clear strength for reproducibility.

major comments (2)
  1. [Experimental Evaluation] The central claim that probability ratios produce non-overlapping, model-specific statistics rests on thresholds calibrated on a finite training set of images. No analysis is provided of how these distributions shift under changes in sampling temperature, prompt distribution, or architectural variants, which directly threatens the reliability of threshold-based attribution and detection for unseen images and models.
  2. [Method] The method defines a model-specific score function via simple thresholds on the probability ratio, yet the manuscript does not report sensitivity analysis or cross-validation details for threshold selection. This leaves open whether the reported effectiveness on the eight class-to-image and four text-to-image models generalizes beyond the calibration set.
minor comments (2)
  1. [Method] Notation for conditional versus unconditional probabilities should be introduced with an explicit equation early in the method section for clarity.
  2. [Figures] Figure captions could more explicitly state the number of images and models used in each panel to aid quick interpretation.

Simulated Author's Rebuttal

2 responses · 0 unresolved

We thank the referee for the constructive comments on the robustness of our threshold-based detection and attribution approach. We address each major comment below and describe planned revisions to improve the manuscript's rigor while preserving the core contributions of PRADA.

read point-by-point responses
  1. Referee: [Experimental Evaluation] The central claim that probability ratios produce non-overlapping, model-specific statistics rests on thresholds calibrated on a finite training set of images. No analysis is provided of how these distributions shift under changes in sampling temperature, prompt distribution, or architectural variants, which directly threatens the reliability of threshold-based attribution and detection for unseen images and models.

    Authors: We agree this is a substantive limitation in the current evaluation. While our experiments cover eight class-to-image and four text-to-image models with diverse architectures, we did not systematically vary sampling temperature, prompt distributions, or test architectural variants beyond those reported. The probability ratio is derived directly from each model's conditional and unconditional token probabilities, which we expect to reflect model-specific characteristics, but additional validation is warranted. In the revised manuscript we will add a sensitivity analysis section that includes experiments with multiple sampling temperatures on a subset of models and a discussion of how prompt variations affect the ratio distributions. We will also explicitly note the scope of generalization to unseen models as a limitation. revision: partial

  2. Referee: [Method] The method defines a model-specific score function via simple thresholds on the probability ratio, yet the manuscript does not report sensitivity analysis or cross-validation details for threshold selection. This leaves open whether the reported effectiveness on the eight class-to-image and four text-to-image models generalizes beyond the calibration set.

    Authors: Thresholds were selected on a calibration set of generated and real images to achieve high true-positive rates with low false positives on real data, as described in the experimental protocol. We did not include a formal sensitivity study or cross-validation procedure in the original submission. We will revise the method and experimental sections to provide explicit details on the calibration process, report performance across a range of threshold values, and include a sensitivity analysis showing how detection and attribution metrics vary with threshold choice. This will clarify the stability of the reported results. revision: yes

Circularity Check

0 steps flagged

No significant circularity in PRADA's probability-ratio method

full rationale

The paper computes the ratio of conditional to unconditional token probabilities directly from the AR model on a given image sequence and treats observed distributional differences versus real images or other generators as an empirical finding. Threshold calibration for detection/attribution is performed on held-out samples from the source models in a standard supervised manner. No step reduces the claimed uniqueness or detection performance to a self-definitional loop, a fitted parameter renamed as prediction, or a load-bearing self-citation. The derivation chain remains independent of its own outputs and is evaluated against external distributions (real images and alternate generators).

Axiom & Free-Parameter Ledger

1 free parameters · 0 axioms · 0 invented entities

The method relies on access to the internal conditional and unconditional probabilities of the target autoregressive models. Thresholds for detection and attribution are calibrated on held-out data, introducing model-specific parameters.

free parameters (1)
  • model-specific detection thresholds
    Calibrated per model to separate real, same-model, and other-model images based on the probability ratio distribution.

pith-pipeline@v0.9.0 · 5512 in / 1052 out tokens · 17615 ms · 2026-05-17T04:50:51.040859+00:00 · methodology

discussion (0)

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    The key idea is to inspect the ratio of a model's conditional and unconditional probability for the autoregressive token sequence... We exploit these characteristics for threshold-based attribution and detection by calibrating a simple, model-specific score function.

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Reference graph

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