REVIEW 4 major objections 6 minor 62 references
Learning Market Making with Closing Auctions
T0 review · 4 major / 6 minor · reviewed 2026-08-03 · deepseek-v4-flash
Pith's one-line read A market-making agent that explicitly tracks a projected closing-auction clearing price while posting quotes on the continuous order book can earn higher mean returns than standard benchmarks.
desk verdict Auction-aware MDP formulation is novel and the clearing-price theorem is fine, but the reported outperformance is not credible because the episode 'return' includes non-cash fictive auction rewards. read the letter →
The pith
A machine-rendered reading of the paper's core claim, the machinery that carries it, and where it could break.
The reading
What carries the argument
The central object is the projected (hypothetical) clearing price, H^cl_t: during the continuous phase it is computed by treating outstanding limit orders as a fictitious auction (Algorithm 1), and during the auction phase it is the solution of the estimated clearing-price equation (2). This single quantity links the two trading phases: it drives the reward (executions priced below H^cl_t are penalized), determines the agent's auction quotes (linear supply curve with slope K and reference price S), and enters the final PnL. The paper also proves Theorem 2.1, giving sufficient conditions (continuity, monotonicity, and a contraction condition) for existence and uniqueness of the estimated clea
What would settle it
Run the same algorithm with the agent receiving only publicly available auction imbalance information (instead of the full exogenous order book) for both training and evaluation on the same simulator and S&P 500 paths, and check whether the mean-return advantage over the two benchmarks persists; if it disappears, the full-information assumption is the source of the reported gain.
Extended reading notes
Core claim
The paper's central claim is that the closing auction should be a first-class object in market-making decisions, not an afterthought for inventory liquidation. To that end, it introduces a projected clearing price H^cl_t, which the agent updates throughout the continuous phase by treating standing limit orders as a hypothetical auction, and which it refines during the auction phase by solving the estimated clearing-price equation. The policy is learned with neural-fitted Q-learning, with separate networks for the two phases, and the reward design explicitly penalizes executions below the projected clearing price and wrong-side dealing in the auction. On evaluation over 100 fresh episodes, th
Load-bearing premise
The agent is assumed to have full information on all exogenous auction limit and market orders (Section 2.1.2), so the projected clearing price is computed from exactly the order flow that determines the final clearing price in simulation; real closing auctions do not afford such transparency, and without it the claimed outperformance is not established.
Editorial extensions
If this is right
- Market makers should condition their continuous-phase quotes on a running estimate of the auction clearing price instead of only on the book's mid price.
- A large share of the learned policy's return comes from the auction phase (mean auction reward turns positive after training), so the auction is a profit source, not just a liquidation venue.
- The same neural-fitted Q-learning setup, with unchanged hyperparameters, works on both generative rough-Heston data and historical S&P 500 paths, suggesting the approach is not tied to a single price process.
- Theorem 2.1 supplies general conditions under which a unique estimated clearing price exists, extending auction-clearing computations beyond the linear supply/demand case used in the numerical experiments.
Reading between the lines
- The full-information assumption (the agent sees every exogenous auction order) means the projected clearing price in the simulator is nearly an oracle; on real markets, where only indicative imbalance is visible, the reported margin may narrow.
- Part of the gap versus the classical benchmark likely reflects that the benchmark is derived for a Bachelier mid-price while the test data are rough-Heston or S&P 500; a sharper test would benchmark against the true optimal control under rough volatility.
- The framework suggests a general recipe: for any session that ends in a discrete liquidity event (periodic auctions, call markets, workup mechanisms), make the projected clearing price a state variable and let RL optimize across the two phases.
Editorial analysis
A structured set of objections, weighed in public.
Referee Report
Summary. The paper studies a market-making execution problem on a session consisting of a continuous limit-order-book phase followed by a closing auction. It introduces a mathematical framework for auction clearing, a projected clearing price H^cl, and a Markov Decision Process whose rewards cover both trading phases. The proposed method is Neural Fitted Q-iteration (NFQ), and the authors compare it against an Avellaneda–Stoikov benchmark and a TWAP benchmark. The central claim is that the trained NFQ policy outperforms both benchmarks on mean returns, in simulations driven by a rough-Heston mid-price model and by historical S&P 500 mid prices. The paper also proves existence and uniqueness of a projected clearing price under general supply/demand curves (Theorem 2.1).
Significance. The topic is timely and practically relevant: closing auctions concentrate a large fraction of daily volume, and most existing market-making models ignore them. The paper is transparent about its generative model, hyperparameters, and algorithm details, which is a strength. Theorem 2.1 is coherent, though the contraction-mapping argument is standard. The main empirical result, however, is not yet convincing: the reported returns mix realized PnL with non-cash fictive auction rewards; the agent is given full information on the order flow that determines the clearing price; and the evaluation lacks out-of-sample testing and statistical significance. Because these issues bear directly on the headline claim, the paper needs substantial revision before the main contribution can be assessed.
major comments (4)
- [§3, §6.3.3, Table 3; §6.4, Table 4] The 'Mean Return' used to claim outperformance is the sum of MDP rewards, which include the per-step auction reward r_t = K^a_t H^cl_t(H^cl_t − S^a_t) + f_a(...) − d‖c_t‖_1 for τop ≤ t < τcl (§3, reward case 2). Remark 6.1 acknowledges that the agent can obtain 'fictive rewards' in the auction. Since the agent has full information on exogenous auction orders (§2.1.2), H^cl_t is the projected clearing price computed from exactly the order flow that determines the final clearing price (Eq. (2)), and the agent's own orders feed back into H^cl_t. Tables 3 and 4 do not separate these interim fictive rewards from the terminal settlement PnL at τcl. The outperformance may therefore be an artifact of reward shaping rather than a genuine increase in market-making profit, even inside the simulator. Please report the realized terminal PnL (cash settlement minus inventory cost) separately and show t
- [§2.1.2, §2.1.4] The agent is assumed to 'have access to full information' on the activities of all exogenous auction participants. In real closing auctions, participants do not observe the complete order flow; the projected clearing price H^cl_t is not computable from public information. The learned policy's advantage appears to rely on this unrealistic assumption, because H^cl_t is used both as a state variable and as the reward-shaping signal. An ablation where the agent observes only public data (e.g., indicative uncrossing price, imbalance, past cancellations) is needed to establish that the approach does not depend on the full-information assumption.
- [§6.3, §6.4] The policy is trained and evaluated on the same generative model; for the historical-data experiment, the same realized mid-price path is reused for all training episodes and evaluation episodes. No out-of-sample test across different days or market conditions is provided. In addition, Tables 3 and 4 report no standard errors or p-values; with the reported standard deviations (Final NFQ std 16,552 versus mean 12,169 in Table 3), the mean differences may be within sampling noise. Please provide bootstrap confidence intervals for the mean-return differences and an out-of-sample, or at least train/test split, evaluation.
- [§5.1, §6.3.1] The AS benchmark is derived under an arithmetic Brownian motion mid-price with constant transaction size, and is then applied in a discrete-time, rough-Heston simulation. Section 6.3.1 states: 'We are in fact expecting our model to beat the benchmark (since the benchmark is only optimal for a Bachelier process)'. Consequently, outperforming AS in the synthetic setting does not establish superiority over an optimal auction-aware market maker; it demonstrates superiority over a deliberately misspecified baseline. This limitation should be acknowledged in the abstract and conclusions.
minor comments (6)
- [§1.3] Typo: 'closing auciton' should be 'closing auction'.
- [§4.1] The symbol T is used both for the time grid (§2.1) and for the total number of time steps T = (m+2)E in Definition 4.1. Please use different notation to avoid ambiguity.
- [Table 2] M1=10 and M2=-10 are labeled 'upper bound' and 'lower bound', but the sampler S^i_t ∼ S_mid + αU({M1,...,M2}) implies the support is {10,...,-10} if taken literally. Please clarify the intended support (e.g., M1=-10, M2=10).
- [Algorithm 2, line 5] The notation V^{ζ,j}_t = ρ^{-1} V^{ζ,j+1}_t is ill-defined at j=L and appears inverted; presumably V^{ζ,j+1}_t = ρ V^{ζ,j}_t for j=1,...,L-1.
- [Table 3] Several rows contain only two numerical entries, making it difficult to compare all four strategies. Please align the table layout so that each row has one entry per strategy column.
- [§4] The paper promises 'regret analysis' in the introduction (Section 1.3), but the body only defines pseudo-regret and plots it numerically; no theoretical regret bound for NFQ is provided. Consider rewording the section title or adding a formal statement.
Circularity Check
Numerical 'outperformance' is measured on the same reward objective the NFQ policy is trained to maximize, with fictive auction rewards driven by full-information projected clearing prices.
-
fitted input called prediction
[Section 3 (reward definition), Remark 6.1, Section 6.3.3 Table 3, Section 6.4 Table 4]
"The agent receives a fictive reward K^a_t H^cl_t(H^cl_t - S^a_t), where H^cl_t is the anticipated clearing price (were the auction to close at time t). ... We still expect the model to outperform benchmarks on average but with higher variance, given the low penalty parameters and the agent's ability to obtain fictive rewards in the closing auction."
The paper reports 'Mean Return' in Tables 3 and 4 as the performance metric, but this 'return' is the sum of MDP rewards defined in Section 3, which is exactly the objective the NFQ policy is trained to maximize. Moreover, the auction-phase reward contains a 'fictive' term K^a_t H^cl_t(H^cl_t - S^a_t), where H^cl_t is not an independent forecast but the solution of Equation (2) computed from full information on all exogenous orders plus the agent's own orders. The policy can therefore inflate the reported metric by choosing K^a and S^a to manipulate H^cl_t, and the claimed outperformance is partly an artifact of optimizing the reported metric, not a prediction of actual PnL. The paper's own Remark 6.1 concedes the role of 'fictive rewards.'
full rationale
The theoretical content (Theorem 2.1, Corollary 2.1, and the benchmark derivations in Section 5) is self-contained and not circular: the clearing-price existence claim is proved via a contraction argument, and the AS/TWAP benchmarks are standard external models. However, the central numerical claim—that the NFQ policy 'outperforms the two benchmarks on mean returns'—is circular in a narrower sense. The reported 'mean returns' are the very MDP rewards the policy was trained to maximize, and the auction component of those rewards is explicitly 'fictive' and depends on a projected clearing price computed from full information on the order flow that determines it. Thus the numerical superiority is, to a significant degree, a check that the optimizer improved its training objective rather than an independent test of profitability. Self-citations to [19], [41], [42], [52] are present, but they support modeling choices (e.g., linear supply curves, auction-price calibration) rather than the uniqueness or validity of the core result, so I do not treat them as independently circular. Because one central 'prediction' reduces by construction to the fitted reward objective, the circularity score is 6.
Assumptions & free parameters
free parameters (19)
- λ0 (market taker arrival intensity) =
1
- v_m, γ_m (Pareto volume parameters) =
2, 2.5
- V∞, βa, βb (Beta LOB volume parameters) =
15, 2, 5
- ρ (LOB geometric decay) =
0.5
- V (maximum market order volume) =
30
- U1, U2 (auction supply slope bounds) =
0.1, 2.0
- M1, M2 (auction reference price bounds) =
10, -10
- p1, p2, p3, p4 (auction event probabilities) =
0.3, 0.2, 0.3, 0.1
- λ (inventory penalty) =
0.5
- q (wrong-side dealing penalty) =
1
- k⋆ (tolerance) =
1000
- d (cancellation cost) =
0.1
- α (tick size) =
0.01
- β, K (auction slope grid) =
3.33, 10
- τ, H0 (Algorithm 1 smoothing and initial clearing price) =
0.95, 100
- NFQ hyperparameters =
η=3e-4, M=3, N=50k, N_min=5k, χ=0.99, E=2000, B=128
- σ (AS benchmark volatility) =
estimated per asset (e.g., 5.77e-4 for CAT)
- K (AS price-impact constant) =
from least-squares regression on 5,000 simulated LOB samples
- Rough Heston parameters =
H=0.1, ρ=-0.7, V0=0.02, θ=0.04, λ=0.3, ν=0.3
assumptions (10)
- domain assumption Assumption 1: all market orders are always executed during the LOB phase.
- domain assumption Assumption 2: the agent always has execution priority at a fixed depth of the CLOB.
- domain assumption Assumption 3: the agent can only act at discrete times during the auction.
- domain assumption Assumption 4: the agent's auction supply curve is linear.
- domain assumption Assumption 5: at least one new market taker arrives on each side each discrete period.
- domain assumption The agent has full information on all exogenous auction limit and market orders.
- domain assumption Exogenous auction supply functions g_i are continuous, increasing, with limits ±∞, and satisfy a uniform Lipschitz condition.
- ad hoc to paper Generative model distributional choices: Pareto, Beta, Bernoulli, and uniform sampling.
- standard math Q-learning converges when rewards are bounded and learning rates satisfy the Robbins-Monro conditions.
- ad hoc to paper NFQ with a neural network converges to an optimal policy.
invented entities (1)
-
Hcl — projected hypothetical clearing price
Cite this review
Pith. "Pith review of Learning Market Making with Closing Auctions." pith.science (2026). https://pith.science/paper/M7G5CSSR
@misc{pith2026260117247,
author = {Pith},
title = {Pith review of: Learning Market Making with Closing Auctions},
year = {2026},
howpublished = {\url{https://pith.science/paper/M7G5CSSR}},
note = {Machine review of arXiv:2601.17247}
}
read the original abstract
In this work, we investigate a market making execution problem on a trading session in which a continuous phase on a limit order book is followed by a closing auction. Whereas standard optimal market making models typically rely on terminal inventory penalties to manage end-of-day risk, ignoring the significant liquidity events available in closing auctions, we propose a deep reinforcement learning framework, consisting of a Deep Q-Network and its continuous-control actor-critic extensions (DDPG, TD3 and SAC), that explicitly incorporates this mechanism. We introduce a market making framework designed to explicitly anticipate the closing auction, continuously refining the projected clearing price as the trading session evolves. We develop a generative stochastic market model to simulate the trading session and to emulate the market. Our theoretical model and these deep reinforcement learning methods are applied on the generator in two settings: (1) when the mid price follows a rough Heston model with generative data from this stochastic model; and (2) when the mid price corresponds to historical data of assets from the S&P 500 index and the performance of our algorithm is compared with stylized reference benchmarks from optimal market making.
Figures
Reference graph
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