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arxiv: 2604.03166 · v1 · submitted 2026-04-03 · 💻 cs.CY

Exclusive and Shared Electric Flying Taxis: Evidence on Modal Shares, Stated Reasons, and Modal Shifts

Nael Alsaleh , Tareq Alsaleh , Fayez Moutassem , Noura Falis , Zainab Islam This is my paper

Pith reviewed 2026-05-13 18:21 UTC · model grok-4.3

classification 💻 cs.CY
keywords electric flying taxisshared mobilitystated preference surveymodal choiceurban air mobilitymodal shiftUAE transportationsustainable transport
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The pith

Electric flying taxis capture 22.6% of stated travel choices in UAE survey

A machine-rendered reading of the paper's core claim, the machinery that carries it, and where it could break.

A stated preference survey of 213 respondents in the United Arab Emirates examines choices among private vehicles, public transport, ground taxis, and electric flying taxis offered in either shared or exclusive configurations. Flying taxis overall account for 22.6 percent of responses, with higher uptake under congested conditions and lower uptake as distance grows. Shared flying taxis show higher shares and stronger sensitivity to moderate distances, weekdays, and leisure purposes, while exclusive versions appeal more to business and weekend travel but command lower overall shares. Ground taxi users display the clearest willingness to switch to shared flying taxis when costs rise. The findings point to pricing and service design choices that could favor adoption of shared flying taxis as a sustainable mobility option.

Core claim

In a stated preference survey conducted in the United Arab Emirates, electric flying taxi services captured 22.6 percent of total mode choices across various travel scenarios. Shared flying taxis achieved higher modal shares than exclusive ones and responded more strongly to factors such as moderate distances, weekday travel, and leisure purposes, while exclusive services declined more sharply with distance and linked more to business and weekend trips. Ground taxi users showed the strongest propensity to shift toward shared flying taxis, particularly when costs rise for their current mode.

What carries the argument

Stated preference survey that presents respondents with hypothetical travel scenarios varying travel time, cost, distance, congestion level, day of the week, and trip purpose, then records stated choices among private vehicle, public transport, ground taxi, shared flying taxi, and exclusive flying taxi.

If this is right

  • Shared flying taxis would achieve higher adoption in congested corridors and for medium-distance leisure trips on weekdays.
  • Maintaining affordable pricing for shared services with clear differentiation from exclusive fares would increase overall flying taxi uptake.
  • Ground taxi users represent the primary segment likely to shift to shared flying taxis under changing cost conditions.
  • Deployment focused on congested urban routes and medium-distance markets would maximize the share captured by flying taxi services.

Where Pith is reading between the lines

These are editorial extensions of the paper, not claims the author makes directly.

  • If real-world conditions match the survey scenarios, shared electric flying taxis could reduce reliance on ground taxis and private cars in dense cities.
  • Service operators should prioritize shared configurations to reach the higher modal shares and responsiveness seen in the data.
  • Repeating the survey in other cities with different congestion levels or attitudes toward sharing would test whether the 22.6 percent share and preference patterns generalize.

Load-bearing premise

The stated preferences collected in a hypothetical survey of 213 respondents accurately predict real-world modal choices once actual electric flying taxi services with real costs and experiences become available.

What would settle it

A revealed-preference study comparing actual modal shares after electric flying taxi services launch in the UAE against the 22.6 percent share predicted by the stated preference survey.

Figures

Figures reproduced from arXiv: 2604.03166 by Fayez Moutassem, Nael Alsaleh, Noura Falis, Tareq Alsaleh, Zainab Islam.

Figure 1
Figure 1. Figure 1: Framework of the SP survey design process [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p006_1.png] view at source ↗
Figure 2
Figure 2. Figure 2: Example of SP choice scenarios presented to respondents. [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p008_2.png] view at source ↗
Figure 3
Figure 3. Figure 3: Modal share based on total responses across all scenarios [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p013_3.png] view at source ↗
Figure 4
Figure 4. Figure 4: Modal share distribution by travel distance, illustrating variations in mode choice across short (22 km), [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p014_4.png] view at source ↗
Figure 5
Figure 5. Figure 5: Modal share distribution by traffic congestion [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p014_5.png] view at source ↗
Figure 6
Figure 6. Figure 6: Modal share distribution by trip purpose [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p015_6.png] view at source ↗
Figure 7
Figure 7. Figure 7: Modal share distribution by day of travel [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p015_7.png] view at source ↗
Figure 8
Figure 8. Figure 8: Variation in Exclusive Flying Taxi Modal Share by Scenario Attributes [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p017_8.png] view at source ↗
Figure 9
Figure 9. Figure 9: Variation in Shared Flying Taxi Modal Share by Scenario Attributes [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p017_9.png] view at source ↗
Figure 10
Figure 10. Figure 10: Modal shift intention from private vehicle to shared flying taxi [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p021_10.png] view at source ↗
Figure 11
Figure 11. Figure 11: Modal shift intention from ground taxi to shared flying taxi [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p021_11.png] view at source ↗
Figure 12
Figure 12. Figure 12: Modal shift intention from public transit to shared flying taxi [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p022_12.png] view at source ↗
Figure 13
Figure 13. Figure 13: Modal shift intention from exclusive to shared flying taxi [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p022_13.png] view at source ↗
Figure 14
Figure 14. Figure 14: Modal shift intention from shared to exclusive flying taxi [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p023_14.png] view at source ↗
read the original abstract

This study examines travelers' preferences for electric flying taxi services in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) under varying travel conditions and service configurations. A stated preference (SP) survey of 213 respondents was conducted to analyze behavior across multiple transport alternatives, including private vehicles, public transport, ground taxis, and both shared and exclusive flying taxi services. The analysis considered key attributes such as travel time and cost, along with contextual factors including travel distance, congestion conditions, day of travel, and trip purpose. In addition, follow-up questions were used to capture the underlying reasons for mode choice and to assess potential modal shifts under changes in travel conditions. The results show that flying taxi services account for 22.6% of total responses, with higher shares under congested conditions and declining shares as travel distance increases. Clear differences are observed between shared and exclusive services. Shared flying taxis achieve higher modal shares and exhibit greater responsiveness to travel conditions, particularly at moderate distances, during weekdays, and for leisure trips. In contrast, exclusive flying taxis maintain lower modal shares, decline with increasing travel distance, and are more associated with business and weekend travel. The modal shift analysis further indicates that ground taxi users exhibit the highest propensity to switch to shared flying taxi services, particularly under cost increases. These findings highlight the importance of pricing and service design in promoting the adoption of shared flying taxi services as a more sustainable mobility option. In particular, maintaining affordable shared services, ensuring clear price differentiation from exclusive services, and prioritizing deployment in congested corridors and medium-distance travel markets can enhance adoption.

Editorial analysis

A structured set of objections, weighed in public.

Desk editor's note, referee report, simulated authors' rebuttal, and a circularity audit. Tearing a paper down is the easy half of reading it; the pith above is the substance, this is the friction.

Referee Report

2 major / 2 minor

Summary. The paper reports results from a stated preference survey of 213 respondents in the UAE examining choices among private vehicles, public transport, ground taxis, and both shared and exclusive electric flying taxi services. It finds that flying taxis capture 22.6% of total responses overall, with higher shares under congested conditions and declining shares as travel distance increases; shared services achieve higher modal shares than exclusive ones and show greater responsiveness to congestion, weekdays, moderate distances, and leisure trips, while exclusive services are more associated with business and weekend travel. The analysis also examines stated reasons for choices and potential modal shifts, particularly from ground taxis under cost changes, and draws policy implications for pricing and deployment of shared services.

Significance. If externally valid, the findings supply early empirical evidence on user preferences for a novel urban air mobility mode, with the shared-versus-exclusive distinction and condition-specific patterns offering concrete guidance for service design and corridor prioritization to support sustainable mobility. The use of follow-up questions on reasons and modal shifts adds depth beyond simple shares.

major comments (2)
  1. [Abstract] Abstract and results presentation: the headline 22.6% flying-taxi modal share and the reported condition-specific differences (congestion, distance, day type, purpose) are given as raw percentages without any information on the underlying discrete-choice model, standard errors, statistical tests for differences, sampling frame, or response rate; these omissions are load-bearing because the central claims rest entirely on the survey tabulations.
  2. [Modal shift analysis] Modal-shift section: the claim that ground-taxi users exhibit the highest propensity to switch to shared flying taxis under cost increases lacks specification of the cost and time attribute levels presented in the SP scenarios, any controls for hypothetical bias, or checks for attribute non-attendance; without these, the policy recommendation to prioritize shared services in congested corridors cannot be evaluated for robustness.
minor comments (2)
  1. Clarify whether 'total responses' refers to choice occasions across all scenarios or to unique respondents, and ensure consistent terminology between shared and exclusive services throughout.
  2. [Introduction] Add a brief comparison table or text reference to prior stated-preference studies on urban air mobility to situate the 22.6% share.

Simulated Author's Rebuttal

2 responses · 0 unresolved

We are grateful for the referee's insightful comments, which have helped us identify areas for improvement in clarity and transparency. Below we provide point-by-point responses to the major comments.

read point-by-point responses

  1. Referee: [Abstract] Abstract and results presentation: the headline 22.6% flying-taxi modal share and the reported condition-specific differences (congestion, distance, day type, purpose) are given as raw percentages without any information on the underlying discrete-choice model, standard errors, statistical tests for differences, sampling frame, or response rate; these omissions are load-bearing because the central claims rest entirely on the survey tabulations.

    Authors: We thank the referee for this observation. Our analysis is descriptive, based on the direct tabulation of the 213 respondents' stated choices in the SP survey rather than outputs from a discrete choice model. The 22.6% represents the overall share of flying taxi selections across all presented scenarios. We will revise the abstract to include details on the survey (213 respondents, convenience sampling in the UAE) and clarify that shares are raw percentages without associated standard errors or formal statistical tests, as none were calculated. We will also note the lack of a response rate, as the survey was distributed via online channels without tracking completion rates. revision: yes

  2. Referee: [Modal shift analysis] Modal-shift section: the claim that ground-taxi users exhibit the highest propensity to switch to shared flying taxis under cost increases lacks specification of the cost and time attribute levels presented in the SP scenarios, any controls for hypothetical bias, or checks for attribute non-attendance; without these, the policy recommendation to prioritize shared services in congested corridors cannot be evaluated for robustness.

    Authors: We agree that additional details will strengthen the modal shift analysis. We will update the manuscript to specify the cost and time attribute levels used in the SP scenarios. The survey scenarios were constructed using realistic values derived from current ground transport conditions in the UAE to minimize hypothetical bias, and we will describe this approach. We did not perform checks for attribute non-attendance; we will add this as a limitation in the revised version. The policy recommendation will be presented with appropriate caveats based on these details. revision: yes

Circularity Check

0 steps flagged

No circularity: modal shares derived directly from survey tabulations

full rationale

The paper reports results from a 213-respondent stated-preference survey through direct tabulation of choices under varying conditions (congestion, distance, day type, purpose). No equations, fitted parameters, or predictive models appear; percentages such as the 22.6% flying-taxi share and conditional comparisons (shared vs. exclusive, responsiveness to distance) are computed straightforwardly from the raw responses. No self-citations, uniqueness theorems, or ansatzes are invoked to justify the core findings. The analysis is therefore self-contained against external benchmarks and exhibits no reduction of outputs to inputs by construction.

Axiom & Free-Parameter Ledger

0 free parameters · 1 axioms · 0 invented entities

The central claim rests on standard stated-preference survey assumptions rather than new free parameters, axioms beyond domain conventions, or invented entities.

axioms (1)
  • domain assumption Stated preferences in hypothetical scenarios reflect underlying real-world preferences for transport mode choice
    Core assumption required to translate survey responses into predicted modal shares; invoked implicitly throughout the results section of the abstract.

pith-pipeline@v0.9.0 · 5606 in / 1374 out tokens · 56468 ms · 2026-05-13T18:21:35.776391+00:00 · methodology

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Lean theorems connected to this paper

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Reference graph

Works this paper leans on

6 extracted references · 6 canonical work pages

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    Airport to island in 15 mins: Flying taxis to take off in 2027; cut travel time. URL:https://www.khaleejtimes.com/uae/transport/ dubai-to-rak-in-15-mins-flying-taxis-to-take-off-in-2027-cut-inter-emirate-travel-time. Adamidis, F., Ditta, C.C., Wu, H., Postorino, M.N., Antoniou, C.,

    work page 2027

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    Available: https://ntrs.nasa.gov/citations/20205002076

    NASA Electric Vertical Takeoff and Landing (eVTOL) Aircraft Technology for Public Services: A White Paper. Technical Report NASA/TVF4/20205000636. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). URL:https://ntrs.nasa.gov/citations/20205000636. accessed: 2026-03-14. Fu, M., Rothfeld, R., Antoniou, C.,

    work page arXiv 2026

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    URL:https://www.halaride.com/hala-taxi-fare/

    Hala taxi fare (dubai). URL:https://www.halaride.com/hala-taxi-fare/. accessed: 2026- 03-17. Holtham, A.,

    work page 2026

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    URL:https://whatson.ae/2024/09/ flying-taxis-will-take-off-in-dubai-in-q1-2026-taking-you-from-dxb-to-the-palm-in-10-minutes/

    Flying taxis will take off in dubai in q1 2026 – taking you from dxb to the palm in 10 minutes. URL:https://whatson.ae/2024/09/ flying-taxis-will-take-off-in-dubai-in-q1-2026-taking-you-from-dxb-to-the-palm-in-10-minutes/. Hossain, S., Habib, K.N.,

    work page 2026

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    khaleejtimes.com/uae/transport/uae-flying-taxis-to-take-off-in-abu-dhabi-in-2026

    URL:https://www. khaleejtimes.com/uae/transport/uae-flying-taxis-to-take-off-in-abu-dhabi-in-2026. Kožul, N., Novačko, L., Babojelić, K., Brlek, P.,

    work page 2026

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    work page 2018