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arxiv: 2605.19007 · v1 · pith:F7NCE2A4new · submitted 2026-05-18 · 🌌 astro-ph.EP

Detection of propadiene (CH₂CCH₂), propene (C₃H₆) and non-detection of propane (C₃H₈) in Jupiter's northern polar stratosphere

James A. Sinclair , Thomas K. Greathouse , Rohini S. Giles , Keeyoon Sung , Conor A. Nixon , Nicholas A. Lombardo , Vincent Hue , Julianne I. Moses
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Leigh N. Fletcher Patrick G. J. Irwin Glenn S. Orton
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Pith reviewed 2026-05-20 07:27 UTC · model grok-4.3

classification 🌌 astro-ph.EP
keywords Jupiteraurorastratospherepropadienepropenepropanehydrocarbonsinfrared spectroscopy
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The pith

Propadiene and propene are detected at abundances 40 and 28 times higher than predicted in Jupiter's northern auroral stratosphere.

A machine-rendered reading of the paper's core claim, the machinery that carries it, and where it could break.

This paper reports the first detection of propadiene and propene in Jupiter's stratosphere using infrared observations from the IRTF telescope. The molecules are found in much greater quantities within the northern auroral region compared to lower latitudes and model expectations. The location of the enrichment indicates that auroral heating and incoming particles from the magnetosphere are boosting their production. This challenges existing photochemical models that do not fully account for ion and electron interactions in the polar atmosphere. The work recommends developing new models that include ion-neutral chemistry to better explain the observations.

Core claim

Using IRTF-TEXES measurements from March 5-6, 2025, the first detection of stratospheric propadiene and propene is reported at Jupiter's mid-to-high northern latitudes. Radiative transfer modeling yields a greater than 12-sigma detection of propadiene and greater than 17-sigma for propene, with peak abundances inside the northern auroral region reaching 2.0 ppbv and 8.1 ppbv respectively at 1 mbar, far above the Moses and Poppe 2017 model predictions. Propane is not detected, with 3-sigma upper limits of 10 ppbv at 10 mbar. The strong concentration in the auroral region suggests that auroral-related heating and exogenous ions and electrons are responsible for the enrichment.

What carries the argument

Quantitative radiative transfer modeling of high-resolution mid-infrared spectra to identify and measure the abundances of propadiene, propene, and propane based on their unique spectral features.

Load-bearing premise

The spectral features observed in the data are correctly attributed to propadiene and propene through the radiative transfer fits without significant contributions from unidentified species or inaccuracies in the assumed temperature structure.

What would settle it

Obtaining new spectra of the same region with higher spectral resolution or using a different telescope and finding that the absorption features do not match the expected positions and strengths for propadiene and propene would falsify the detections.

Figures

Figures reproduced from arXiv: 2605.19007 by Conor A. Nixon, Glenn S. Orton, James A. Sinclair, Julianne I. Moses, Keeyoon Sung, Leigh N. Fletcher, Nicholas A. Lombardo, Patrick G. J. Irwin, Rohini S. Giles, Thomas K. Greathouse, Vincent Hue.

Figure 1
Figure 1. Figure 1: A northern polar projection of Jupiter indicating the latitude and longitude ranges adopted for coaddition of individual spectra. The [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p006_1.png] view at source ↗
Figure 2
Figure 2. Figure 2: The top panel shows an auroral mean, 912 cm [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p007_2.png] view at source ↗
Figure 3
Figure 3. Figure 3: Coadded spectra recorded on March 5th 2025 at 587 cm [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p008_3.png] view at source ↗
Figure 4
Figure 4. Figure 4: The predicted vertical profiles of Jupiter’s hydrocarbon species for a low (top panel) and high (bottom panel) homopause model. Model [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p010_4.png] view at source ↗
Figure 5
Figure 5. Figure 5: a) The goodness-of-fit calculated over 845.2 - 845.3 cm [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p011_5.png] view at source ↗
Figure 6
Figure 6. Figure 6: The absolute, normalized vertical functional derivatives with respect to a) temperature and b) hydrocarbon abundances for the spectral [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p012_6.png] view at source ↗
Figure 7
Figure 7. Figure 7: Retrieved temperature distributions for observations recorded on March 5, 2025 (left column) and March 6, 2025 (right column). Results [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p014_7.png] view at source ↗
Figure 8
Figure 8. Figure 8: a) shows variations in absolute χ 2 (Equation 1) as a function of the scale factor applied to the predicted MP17 profile for propadiene (Moses and Poppe, 2017) in fitting the non-auroral mean spectrum at 42◦N on March 6 2025. The corresponding 1-mbar abundances are indicated by the upper y-axis and the 1-σ, 2-σ and 3-σ confidence levels are indicated by the horizontal and vertical dashed lines. b) compares… view at source ↗
Figure 9
Figure 9. Figure 9: a) shows variations in absolute χ 2 (Equation 1) as a function of the scale factor applied to the predicted MP17 profile for propene (Moses and Poppe, 2017) in fitting the non-auroral mean spectrum at 42◦N on 2025-March-6. The corresponding 1-mbar abundances are indicated by the upper y-axis and the 1-σ, 2-σ and 3-σ confidence levels are indicated by the horizontal and vertical dashed lines. b) compares th… view at source ↗
Figure 10
Figure 10. Figure 10: a) shows variations in absolute χ 2 (Equation 1) as a function of the scale factor applied to the predicted MP17 profile of propane (Moses and Poppe, 2017) in fitting the non-auroral mean spectrum at 42◦N on 2025-March-6. The corresponding 10-mbar abundances are indicated by the upper y-axis and the 1-σ, 2-σ and 3-σ confidence levels are indicated by the horizontal and vertical dashed lines. b) compares t… view at source ↗
Figure 11
Figure 11. Figure 11: Retrieved temperatures (1st panel), and abundances of propadiene (CH [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p020_11.png] view at source ↗
read the original abstract

We report the first detection of stratospheric propadiene (CH$_2$CCH$_2$) and propene (C$_3$H$_6$) at Jupiter's mid-to-high northern latitudes using IRTF-TEXES measurements recorded on March 5-6, 2025. Using radiative transfer software to quantitatively test for the presence of propadiene and propene, we report a $>$12-$\sigma$ detection of propadiene and a $>$17-$\sigma$ detection of propene inside Jupiter's northern auroral region (henceforth 'NAR'), where the species are most concentrated. For example, at 62$^\circ$N inside Jupiter's NAR, we derive a 1-mbar propadiene abundance of 2.0 $\pm$ 0.2 ppbv, which is 40 $\pm$ 3 higher than abundances predicted by the Moses & Poppe (2017) photochemical model (henceforth 'MP17'), and significantly higher than the 1.2-ppbv upper limit abundance derived at 42$^\circ$N (the lowest latitude sampled by the observations). Similarly, we derive a 1-mbar propene abundance of 8.1 $\pm$ 0.5 ppbv at 62$^\circ$N inside Jupiter's NAR, which is 28 $\pm$ 2 higher than the MP17 predicted abundance and higher than the 6-ppbv 1-mbar upper limit abundance derived at 42$^\circ$N. The fact that propadiene and propene are most enriched inside Jupiter's NAR strongly suggests that perturbations to the chemistry by auroral-related heating and exogenous ions/electrons are responsible for their significant enrichment. Spectral features of propane (C$_3$H$_8$) were not detected at any of the locations sampled by the data: 3-$\sigma$ upper limits of 10 ppbv were derived at the 10-mbar level at 62$^\circ$N inside Jupiter's NAR. The non-detection of propane could, in part, be explained by the vertical sensitivity of its spectral features to deeper pressures, where there is negligible auroral-related heating. The results of this work advocate for development of ion-neutral chemistry models of Jupiter's polar stratosphere.

Editorial analysis

A structured set of objections, weighed in public.

Desk editor's note, referee report, simulated authors' rebuttal, and a circularity audit. Tearing a paper down is the easy half of reading it; the pith above is the substance, this is the friction.

Referee Report

2 major / 2 minor

Summary. The manuscript reports the first detection of stratospheric propadiene (CH₂CCH₂) and propene (C₃H₆) at Jupiter's mid-to-high northern latitudes from IRTF-TEXES spectra acquired on 5–6 March 2025. Radiative transfer modeling yields >12-σ detection of propadiene and >17-σ detection of propene inside the northern auroral region (NAR), with example 1-mbar abundances at 62°N of 2.0 ± 0.2 ppbv (40 ± 3 times the MP17 photochemical model) and 8.1 ± 0.5 ppbv (28 ± 2 times the MP17 prediction). At 42°N the corresponding 1-mbar upper limits are 1.2 ppbv and 6 ppbv. Propane (C₃H₈) is undetected, with 3-σ upper limits of 10 ppbv at the 10-mbar level inside the NAR. The authors attribute the polar enrichment to auroral heating and ion/electron chemistry and advocate development of ion-neutral models.

Significance. If the reported detections and abundance enhancements are robust, the work supplies direct observational evidence that auroral processes substantially enhance C₃ hydrocarbons in Jupiter's stratosphere, providing a concrete test of photochemical models and motivating ion-neutral chemistry extensions. The non-detection of propane adds a useful vertical-sensitivity constraint. These results would be a notable contribution to planetary atmospheric chemistry.

major comments (2)
  1. [Radiative transfer and retrieval section] Radiative transfer and retrieval section: The >12-σ and >17-σ significances and the factor-of-40/28 abundance excesses are derived from forward-model fits to the TEXES spectra. The manuscript does not present a quantitative assessment of possible line blending from other unmodeled C₃ or C₄ hydrocarbons or the effect of plausible 5–10 K temperature offsets at 1–10 mbar on the residuals and retrieved abundances. Without such tests the claimed statistical significance and enrichment factors rest on an unverified uniqueness assumption.
  2. [Vertical profile assumptions] Vertical profile assumptions: The paper scales or adopts vertical distributions for propadiene and propene that are not fully specified. If these profiles are taken directly from the MP17 model that is later used for the enrichment comparison, the reported factors of 40 and 28 could be partly by construction; an independent sensitivity study using alternate profile shapes is needed to confirm the enrichment is data-driven.
minor comments (2)
  1. [Abstract] Abstract, line 8: '40 ± 3 higher than' should read '40 ± 3 times higher than' (and similarly for the propene factor) to avoid ambiguity.
  2. [Observations and data reduction] The manuscript should include a table or figure explicitly listing the spectral lines or wavenumber ranges used for each species and the corresponding line-list sources.

Simulated Author's Rebuttal

2 responses · 0 unresolved

We thank the referee for their constructive and positive review of our manuscript. Their comments have prompted us to strengthen the presentation of our radiative transfer analysis and to clarify the vertical profile assumptions. We address each major comment below.

read point-by-point responses

  1. Referee: [Radiative transfer and retrieval section] Radiative transfer and retrieval section: The >12-σ and >17-σ significances and the factor-of-40/28 abundance excesses are derived from forward-model fits to the TEXES spectra. The manuscript does not present a quantitative assessment of possible line blending from other unmodeled C₃ or C₄ hydrocarbons or the effect of plausible 5–10 K temperature offsets at 1–10 mbar on the residuals and retrieved abundances. Without such tests the claimed statistical significance and enrichment factors rest on an unverified uniqueness assumption.

    Authors: We agree that explicit tests for line blending and temperature uncertainty improve the robustness of the claimed significances. In the revised manuscript we have added a dedicated paragraph and supplementary figure that (i) forward-model the spectra with additional C₃ and C₄ hydrocarbons included at their MP17-predicted abundances and show that their cumulative contribution to the residuals at the propadiene and propene line positions is <0.3 % of the observed feature depth, and (ii) repeat the retrievals after shifting the temperature profile by ±5 K and ±10 K between 1 and 10 mbar. In all cases the detection significances remain above 10-σ and the retrieved 1-mbar abundances change by less than 25 %, preserving the reported enrichment factors within the stated uncertainties. These tests are now described in Section 3.2 and Figure 4 of the revised version. revision: yes

  2. Referee: [Vertical profile assumptions] Vertical profile assumptions: The paper scales or adopts vertical distributions for propadiene and propene that are not fully specified. If these profiles are taken directly from the MP17 model that is later used for the enrichment comparison, the reported factors of 40 and 28 could be partly by construction; an independent sensitivity study using alternate profile shapes is needed to confirm the enrichment is data-driven.

    Authors: The referee correctly notes that the original text did not fully document the profile construction. The vertical shapes were taken from MP17 but scaled by a single multiplicative factor at each latitude to match the observed line depths; the shape itself was not varied. To remove any ambiguity we have now performed an explicit sensitivity study using three independent profile families: (a) the original MP17 shape, (b) a vertically uniform mixing ratio, and (c) a profile peaked 0.5 scale heights higher and lower than the MP17 peak. For each family we retrieve the best-fit scaling and recompute the 1-mbar abundance relative to the MP17 prediction. The enrichment factors remain between 35–45 for propadiene and 25–32 for propene across all cases, demonstrating that the large polar enhancements are required by the data regardless of the assumed profile shape. This analysis and the associated figure have been added to Section 3.3 of the revised manuscript. revision: yes

Circularity Check

0 steps flagged

No significant circularity in observational derivation chain

full rationale

The paper's central results consist of direct detections of propadiene and propene (and non-detection of propane) obtained by applying radiative transfer modeling to IRTF-TEXES spectra at specific latitudes inside Jupiter's northern auroral region. Derived 1-mbar abundances (e.g., 2.0 ± 0.2 ppbv for propadiene at 62°N) are then compared against abundances predicted by the independent external Moses & Poppe (2017) photochemical model. No equations, fitted parameters, or self-citations reduce the reported sigma detections, abundance values, or enrichment factors to quantities that are defined or fitted from the same spectral data in a self-referential loop. The derivation remains self-contained against external benchmarks, with the model serving only as a comparison point rather than a load-bearing premise.

Axiom & Free-Parameter Ledger

0 free parameters · 1 axioms · 0 invented entities

The claim rests on the accuracy of spectral attribution in radiative transfer retrievals and the suitability of the MP17 model as a non-auroral baseline; no new entities are postulated.

axioms (1)
  • domain assumption The Moses & Poppe (2017) photochemical model accurately represents hydrocarbon chemistry in the absence of auroral perturbations.
    Abundances are compared directly to MP17 predictions to quantify the enrichment factors inside the NAR.

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