Paper Citation Record · LEDGER

Large Language Models Are Overconfident in Their Own Responses

As of 17 August 2026, this Paper Citation Record lists 34 of 34 outbound references and 0 inbound Pith citation observations for arXiv:2606.03437.

A citation records a reference. It does not transfer a finding from one paper to another.

pith.paper-citation-record.v1
2606.03437 v1

Coverage vector

measured 34 of 34 reference resolution

Typed states for the displayed outbound observations.

Source: paper_references, paper_reference_links, observed 2026-06-28T10:14:14.372346Z

measured 34 of 34 standing notices

One-hop event checks from named stored sources.

Source: scholarly_work_events, retraction_status_cache, observed 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00

measured 0 of 0 inbound itemization

Pith citing papers itemized under the disclosed page cap.

Source: paper_references, paper_reference_links

measured 0 of 1 external citation measurements

A source-named dated measurement, never combined with another source.

Source: cited_works

Reference resolution

34 of 34 outbound references displayed

verified exact23
verified fuzzy0
unresolved10
parse uncertain0
malformed identifier0
metadata mismatch1

External citation measurements

No source-named external measurement is stored.

Outbound references

Observation 7f4fb58b-6562-4bff-97e4-df3baee993ea · outbound

This paper cites Verification of forecasts expressed in terms of probability.

Large Language Models Are Overconfident in Their Own Responses Verification of forecasts expressed in terms of probability

Reference 1

Resolution: verified exact; doi, observed 2026-06-28T10:22:00.403863Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.

Observation 317b3433-9039-427e-bc92-e8176af4687a · outbound

This paper cites Training Verifiers to Solve Math Word Problems.

Large Language Models Are Overconfident in Their Own Responses Training Verifiers to Solve Math Word Problems

Reference 2

Resolution: verified exact; local_arxiv, observed 2026-07-02T03:16:33.659146Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.

Observation ef4ea103-9461-4b5b-9009-e6fccbd03077 · outbound

This paper cites An Introduction to the Bootstrap.

Large Language Models Are Overconfident in Their Own Responses An Introduction to the Bootstrap

Reference 3

Resolution: verified exact; doi, observed 2026-06-28T10:22:00.396762Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.

Observation 4cfc4759-949d-449b-8179-3be2b95e4a4f · outbound

This paper cites Gemma 3 Technical Report.

Large Language Models Are Overconfident in Their Own Responses Gemma 3 Technical Report

Reference 4

Resolution: verified exact; local_arxiv, observed 2026-07-02T03:16:33.634191Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.

Observation 4a434fcf-16ed-41ac-a711-c65673264da4 · outbound

This paper cites The Llama 3 Herd of Models.

Large Language Models Are Overconfident in Their Own Responses The Llama 3 Herd of Models

Reference 5

Resolution: verified exact; local_arxiv, observed 2026-07-02T03:16:33.662289Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.

Observation ac1332ef-4535-4106-83bb-c3661614511c · outbound

This paper cites Weinberger.

Large Language Models Are Overconfident in Their Own Responses Weinberger

Reference 6

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-06-28T10:14:14.372346Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 2ea6378c-4353-4cab-976a-78eb75713eb4 · outbound

This paper cites an unresolved cited work.

Large Language Models Are Overconfident in Their Own Responses Unresolved cited work

Reference 7

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-06-28T10:14:14.372346Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 212455d2-37d6-492c-af8d-41e3a57dbc1d · outbound

This paper cites Language Models (Mostly) Know What They Know.

Large Language Models Are Overconfident in Their Own Responses Language Models (Mostly) Know What They Know

Reference 8

Resolution: verified exact; local_arxiv, observed 2026-07-02T03:16:33.628015Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.

Observation b96b328b-5b84-49ed-89f7-37944d8e7af1 · outbound

This paper cites Why Language Models Hallucinate.

Large Language Models Are Overconfident in Their Own Responses Why Language Models Hallucinate

Reference 9

Resolution: metadata mismatch; local_arxiv, observed 2026-07-02T03:16:33.649262Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.

Observation 67413c26-e17e-4003-af77-739e5ad9bfe8 · outbound

This paper cites an unresolved cited work.

Large Language Models Are Overconfident in Their Own Responses Unresolved cited work

Reference 10

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-06-28T10:14:14.372346Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation d0fdad0f-8091-4cef-9284-ac3d1eca96cb · outbound

This paper cites an unresolved cited work.

Large Language Models Are Overconfident in Their Own Responses Unresolved cited work

Reference 11

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-06-28T10:14:14.372346Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 8b284e5c-fecd-409f-9ec4-af9dc50537bb · outbound

This paper cites an unresolved cited work.

Large Language Models Are Overconfident in Their Own Responses Unresolved cited work

Reference 12

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-06-28T10:14:14.372346Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 5c191fd6-0868-41e2-8d2c-74663374cc63 · outbound

This paper cites URLhttps://doi.org/10.18653/v1/2022.acl-long.229.

Large Language Models Are Overconfident in Their Own Responses URLhttps://doi.org/10.18653/v1/2022.acl-long.229

Reference 13

Resolution: verified exact; doi, observed 2026-06-28T10:22:00.401651Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.

Observation c745947e-09e5-4988-bade-8440528e6af0 · outbound

This paper cites an unresolved cited work.

Large Language Models Are Overconfident in Their Own Responses Unresolved cited work

Reference 14

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-06-28T10:14:14.372346Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 0489f296-4a54-458e-828f-bd119f5973e5 · outbound

This paper cites and Szlam, Arthur and Dinan, Emily and Boureau, Y-Lan.

Large Language Models Are Overconfident in Their Own Responses and Szlam, Arthur and Dinan, Emily and Boureau, Y-Lan

Reference 15

Resolution: verified exact; doi, observed 2026-06-28T10:22:00.414391Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.

Observation 129a8591-b2d9-4cdd-a1c3-f396502eb95a · outbound

This paper cites Is there a {object} in the image?.

Large Language Models Are Overconfident in Their Own Responses Is there a {object} in the image?

Reference 16

Resolution: verified exact; arxiv_id, observed 2026-07-02T03:16:33.646017Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.

Observation 23624d33-3a5c-4d56-a401-f1052b4a3112 · outbound

This paper cites GPT-4 Technical Report.

Large Language Models Are Overconfident in Their Own Responses GPT-4 Technical Report

Reference 17

Resolution: verified exact; local_arxiv, observed 2026-07-02T03:16:33.655136Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.

Observation 8abefb96-0ed9-444c-b006-ba590a0abe92 · outbound

This paper cites an unresolved cited work.

Large Language Models Are Overconfident in Their Own Responses Unresolved cited work

Reference 18

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-06-28T10:14:14.372346Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation b82da0ac-c45c-4756-8956-3a0bf31ba053 · outbound

This paper cites Obtaining well calibrated probabilities using bayesian binning.

Large Language Models Are Overconfident in Their Own Responses Obtaining well calibrated probabilities using bayesian binning

Reference 19

Resolution: verified exact; doi, observed 2026-06-28T10:22:00.416617Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.

Observation babccf75-1370-44c3-814c-45522d14c094 · outbound

This paper cites Bowman, Amanda Askell, Roger Grosse, Danny Hernandez, Deep Ganguli, Evan Hubinger, Nicholas Schiefer, and Jared Kaplan.

Large Language Models Are Overconfident in Their Own Responses Bowman, Amanda Askell, Roger Grosse, Danny Hernandez, Deep Ganguli, Evan Hubinger, Nicholas Schiefer, and Jared Kaplan

Reference 20

Resolution: verified exact; doi, observed 2026-06-28T10:22:00.399352Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.

Observation 15205c86-1aee-465c-99a6-93583efe74f2 · outbound

This paper cites an unresolved cited work.

Large Language Models Are Overconfident in Their Own Responses Unresolved cited work

Reference 21

Resolution: verified exact; doi, observed 2026-06-28T10:22:00.418442Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.

Observation 0b37cdb7-3720-4b2a-94a8-8747f9004116 · outbound

This paper cites an unresolved cited work.

Large Language Models Are Overconfident in Their Own Responses Unresolved cited work

Reference 22

Resolution: verified exact; doi, observed 2026-06-28T10:22:00.394948Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.

Observation 24ec058c-0baf-4535-a163-7d767f0fca07 · outbound

This paper cites Proximal Policy Optimization Algorithms.

Large Language Models Are Overconfident in Their Own Responses Proximal Policy Optimization Algorithms

Reference 23

Resolution: verified exact; local_arxiv, observed 2026-07-02T03:16:33.652240Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.

Observation f90f72c5-55ce-4892-80bf-8ce426d6c3af · outbound

This paper cites Asking Again and Again: Exploring LLM Robustness to Repeated Questions.

Large Language Models Are Overconfident in Their Own Responses Asking Again and Again: Exploring LLM Robustness to Repeated Questions

Reference 24

Resolution: verified exact; arxiv_id, observed 2026-07-02T03:16:33.631138Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.

Observation c0d2f9ea-f35a-4fb2-9ce7-725f491a279e · outbound

This paper cites an unresolved cited work.

Large Language Models Are Overconfident in Their Own Responses Unresolved cited work

Reference 25

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-06-28T10:14:14.372346Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation b6ce35cb-a970-4f7f-8a60-5cfca3dbc445 · outbound

This paper cites doi: 10.18653/v1/2023.emnlp-main.330.

Large Language Models Are Overconfident in Their Own Responses doi: 10.18653/v1/2023.emnlp-main.330

Reference 26

Resolution: verified exact; doi, observed 2026-06-28T10:22:00.410572Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.

Observation 344f3fe2-2afd-4954-9b75-bf0f47245fb7 · outbound

This paper cites Ulmer, M.

Large Language Models Are Overconfident in Their Own Responses Ulmer, M

Reference 27

Resolution: verified exact; doi, observed 2026-06-28T10:22:00.408321Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.

Observation d8b3d725-fad8-4325-946e-c232e3460507 · outbound

This paper cites My Answer is C.

Large Language Models Are Overconfident in Their Own Responses My Answer is C

Reference 28

Resolution: verified exact; doi, observed 2026-06-28T10:22:00.412615Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.

Observation b59af2e4-30f8-484c-a993-eaa1e69962c2 · outbound

This paper cites Simple synthetic data reduces sycophancy in large language models.

Large Language Models Are Overconfident in Their Own Responses Simple synthetic data reduces sycophancy in large language models

Reference 29

Resolution: verified exact; local_arxiv, observed 2026-07-02T03:16:33.638684Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.

Observation c4084f72-90d2-4200-a5c4-6d8800ce2926 · outbound

This paper cites Individual comparisons by ranking methods.

Large Language Models Are Overconfident in Their Own Responses Individual comparisons by ranking methods

Reference 30

Resolution: verified exact; arxiv_id, observed 2026-07-02T03:16:33.665919Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.

Observation b0f4c2df-07eb-43d5-985b-284483328b0e · outbound

This paper cites an unresolved cited work.

Large Language Models Are Overconfident in Their Own Responses Unresolved cited work

Reference 31

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-06-28T10:14:14.372346Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation c94ece08-d4d3-4d14-8601-2a0a83a8c0b6 · outbound

This paper cites an unresolved cited work.

Large Language Models Are Overconfident in Their Own Responses Unresolved cited work

Reference 32

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-06-28T10:14:14.372346Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 2e0084d8-603d-4e90-b1f1-dd7cdc20cb05 · outbound

This paper cites Qwen3 Technical Report.

Large Language Models Are Overconfident in Their Own Responses Qwen3 Technical Report

Reference 33

Resolution: verified exact; local_arxiv, observed 2026-07-02T03:16:33.642110Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.

Observation 7b82d704-1873-4568-8902-ba7526c680ca · outbound

This paper cites an unresolved cited work.

Large Language Models Are Overconfident in Their Own Responses Unresolved cited work

Reference 34

Resolution: verified exact; doi, observed 2026-06-28T10:22:00.405959Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.

Pith citing papers

No inbound Pith citation observations are available.