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arxiv: 2606.06868 · v1 · pith:A3OELJZFnew · submitted 2026-06-05 · 🌌 astro-ph.EP

The mass of TOI-1883 b: A low density super-Neptune in the ridge regime transiting an early-M dwarf

Izuru Fukuda , Norio Narita , Akihiko Fukui , Teruyuki Hirano , Masayuki Kuzuhara , Hiroyuki Kurokawa , Kai Ikuta , Jerome P. De Leon
show 31 more authors
Takuya Takarada Hiroki Harakawa Hiroyuki Tako Ishikawa Yasunori Hori Tadahiro Kimura Takanori Kodama Masahiro Ikoma Akitoshi Ueda Aoi Takahashi Enric Palle Felipe Murgas Gaia Lacedelli Hannu Parviainen John H. Livingston Jun Nishikawa Keisuke Isogai Kiyoe Kawauchi Masashi Omiya Mayuko Mori Motohide Tamura Nobuhiko Kusakabe Noriharu Watanabe S\'ebastien Vievard Taiki Kagetani Takashi Kurokawa Takayuki Kotani Takuma Serizawa Tomoyuki Kudo Vigneshwaran Krishnamurthy Yugo Kawai Yuya Hayashi
This is my paper

Pith reviewed 2026-06-27 21:17 UTC · model grok-4.3

classification 🌌 astro-ph.EP
keywords exoplanetssuper-Neptuneradial velocityM dwarfTOI-1883 bNeptune ridgelow density planetphotoevaporation
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The pith

TOI-1883 b has a mass of 13.7 Earth masses and a mean density of 0.4 g cm^{-3}, marking it as a low-density super-Neptune in the ridge regime around an early-M dwarf.

A machine-rendered reading of the paper's core claim, the machinery that carries it, and where it could break.

The paper reports radial-velocity observations that yield a planetary mass and density for TOI-1883 b, a transiting super-Neptune with a 4.51-day period. These values place the planet inside the ridge portion of the short-period Neptune distribution and indicate that its formation and migration path around an M dwarf followed the same pattern seen around FGK stars. The host star's high metallicity is invoked to explain why runaway gas accretion did not occur despite a core mass near or above the conventional threshold. The planet's high transmission spectroscopy metric is noted as making it suitable for future atmospheric work.

Core claim

Radial-velocity data from the IRD instrument give a planetary mass of 13.7 +6.8/-6.5 Earth masses and a mean density of 0.4 +0.3/-0.2 g cm^{-3} for TOI-1883 b. The resulting low density leads the authors to classify the planet as a low-density super-Neptune. The period places it inside the ridge (3.2–5.7 days), and the similarity of the Neptune-desert boundary around M dwarfs to that around FGK stars is taken to imply disk-driven migration followed by early XUV-driven photoevaporation. The host-star metallicity of [Fe/H] = 0.32 is suggested to have suppressed runaway gas accretion.

What carries the argument

The Keplerian radial-velocity semi-amplitude measured from IRD spectra, converted to planetary mass and bulk density under the assumption that the signal arises solely from the planet.

If this is right

  • The boundary of the Neptune desert in period-radius space is statistically similar for planets around M dwarfs and FGK stars.
  • TOI-1883 b reached its present orbit by disk-driven migration and lost envelope mass through early atmospheric photoevaporation.
  • The host star's supersolar metallicity prevented the core from triggering runaway gas accretion even though the core mass meets or exceeds the conventional critical value.
  • The planet's transmission spectroscopy metric exceeds 140, so transmission spectra can be obtained with current or near-future facilities.

Where Pith is reading between the lines

These are editorial extensions of the paper, not claims the author makes directly.

  • Additional mass measurements of other ridge planets around M dwarfs would test whether low density is a common outcome in this period range.
  • Atmospheric retrievals on TOI-1883 b could directly check whether the envelope has been stripped to the degree predicted by the photoevaporation scenario.
  • If the same migration-plus-photoevaporation pathway operates across stellar types, population synthesis models should reproduce the observed ridge location without separate tuning for M dwarfs.

Load-bearing premise

The detected radial-velocity signal at the orbital period is produced only by the planet's gravitational pull and contains no significant contribution from stellar activity, spots, or instrumental effects.

What would settle it

A radial-velocity campaign that either detects activity-induced signals at the same period with amplitude comparable to the planetary signal or yields a mass upper limit below 5 Earth masses would falsify the reported density and classification.

Figures

Figures reproduced from arXiv: 2606.06868 by Akihiko Fukui, Akitoshi Ueda, Aoi Takahashi, Enric Palle, Felipe Murgas, Gaia Lacedelli, Hannu Parviainen, Hiroki Harakawa, Hiroyuki Kurokawa, Hiroyuki Tako Ishikawa, Izuru Fukuda, Jerome P. de Leon, John H. Livingston, Jun Nishikawa, Kai Ikuta, Keisuke Isogai, Kiyoe Kawauchi, Masahiro Ikoma, Masashi Omiya, Masayuki Kuzuhara, Mayuko Mori, Motohide Tamura, Nobuhiko Kusakabe, Noriharu Watanabe, Norio Narita, S\'ebastien Vievard, Tadahiro Kimura, Taiki Kagetani, Takanori Kodama, Takashi Kurokawa, Takayuki Kotani, Takuma Serizawa, Takuya Takarada, Teruyuki Hirano, Tomoyuki Kudo, Vigneshwaran Krishnamurthy, Yasunori Hori, Yugo Kawai, Yuya Hayashi.

Figure 1
Figure 1. Figure 1: Phase-folded TESS light curve (gray). The derived orbital period (= 4.506 days) and the optimum transit model (red) are shown within transit windows spanning three times the transit duration near the transit center. Alt text: Time-series flux for the transit of the TESS data and the optimum model. with a field of view of 9’1 × 9’1. The exposure times were set to be 90, 30, 35, and 20 s in g-, r-, i-, and z… view at source ↗
Figure 2
Figure 2. Figure 2: Multicolor simultaneous light curves in g-, r-, i-, and zs-bands, obtained by MuSCAT2 on 2021 March 14, 2021 March 23, 2022 March 5, and MuSCAT3 on 2022 March 9 (Section 2.2 and 2.3). For MuSCAT3, only a partial transit was observed. The data are jointly fitted with the transit models (blue, green, orange, and red) and the baseline model, and the observed fluxes (gray) are binned into points shown in black… view at source ↗
Figure 5
Figure 5. Figure 5: Spectrum energy distributions (SED) of TOI-1883. Green curve shows the best-fit SED model. Red diamonds and blue squares are the data and integrated best-fit model for the photometric bands, respectively. Alt text: Wavelength (Å) versus flux density (erg cm−2 s −1 Å −1 ) as the SED. Diamond and square show the observed data and optimum point. Solid line shows the best-fit SED model. (Skrutskie et al. 2006)… view at source ↗
Figure 4
Figure 4. Figure 4: FWHM, CRX, dV, and dLW (blue) for TOI-1883 from the IRD spec￾tra (Section 2.5). Alt text: FWHM, CRX, dV, and dLW, from the IRD spectra for each panel. 3.1.2 Photometric properties Apart from the metallicity [Fe/H], the other stellar parameters were estimated from the photometric properties. Using the par￾allax from Gaia DR3 (Prusti et al. 2016; Vallenari et al. 2023) (assuming the distance d as the inverse… view at source ↗
Figure 7
Figure 7. Figure 7: Phase-folded at a period of 4.508 days, transit-masked, and nor￾malized TESS flux (black) together with the best-fit light-curve model (red). The panels from top to bottom show the data from Sectors 35, 61, re￾spectively (only the observations with an exposure time of 120 s are used). TIC 348755728 corresponds to TOI-1883. “LS Model” denotes the Lomb–Scargle light curve model. Alt text: The TESS flux is sh… view at source ↗
Figure 6
Figure 6. Figure 6: Periodograms of the RV, Window, FWHM, CRX, dV, and dLW, ob￾tained with the GLS from the IRD spectra for TOI-1883 (Section 3.1.3). The horizontal lines represent the FAP of 0.10, 1.0, and 10.0 %, respectively (black) for each of the panels. Alt text: Period (day) versus the power of the GLS periodogram for the RV, Window, O-C, FWHM, dV, CRX, and dLW, from the IRD spectra. In each panel, the vertical line sh… view at source ↗
Figure 8
Figure 8. Figure 8: Phase-folded radial velocity curve of TOI-1883 observed with Subaru/IRD. The red line shows the best-fit Keplerian model, and the blue points represent the measured RVs with 1σ error bars. Thin gray curves in￾dicate 100 model realizations randomly drawn from the posterior samples, illustrating the uncertainty in the fitted model. The bottom panel shows the residuals after subtracting the best-fit model, wi… view at source ↗
Figure 9
Figure 9. Figure 9: We plot the time series of the residuals between the observed transit central times and the best-fit linear ephemeris. The black line rep￾resents the residuals from the linear ephemeris. The colors correspond to the observing instruments. Alt text: We plot the time series of the residuals between the observed transit central times and the best-fit lin￾ear ephemeris. photoevaporative mass loss. For this pur… view at source ↗
Figure 11
Figure 11. Figure 11: Planets orbiting M-type stars (Teff < 4000K) are plotted in black on the orbital period–planet radius diagram. TOI-1883 b is highlighted in red. Planets with mean densities similar to that of TOI-1883 b are plotted using the same colors as in [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p010_11.png] view at source ↗
Figure 12
Figure 12. Figure 12: The light curve of TOI-1883 observed by ASAS-SN in V -band (Section 3.1.3). Alt text: The light curve of TOI-1883 observed by ASAS-SN in V -band. 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Frequency (day 1 ) 0.00 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.10 Power ASAS-SN periodogram for TOI-1883 100 10 3 1 Period (days) [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p014_12.png] view at source ↗
Figure 13
Figure 13. Figure 13: Periodograms for the ASAS-SN light curves in V -bands (blue), and their window functions (gray), with the GLS for TOI-1883 (Section 3.1.3). The vertical line represents the orbital period (=4.506 days) of the planet (red), and the horizontal lines represent the FAP of 0.1, 5.0, and 10.0 %, respectively (black). Alt text: The period analysis of the ASAS-SN light curve is presented [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures… view at source ↗
Figure 14
Figure 14. Figure 14: This is a corner plot of the posterior distribution for each parameter of the 1-planet circular orbit model. This result was gen- erated from an MCMC with 50000 iterations and 10000 discards. Alt text: This is a corner plot of the posterior distribution for each parameter of the 1-planet circular orbit model [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p015_14.png] view at source ↗
read the original abstract

Recent large-scale transit surveys conducted by space telescopes such as Kepler and TESS have revealed a vast number of exoplanets, uncovering the diversity of their population. One of the remarkable findings is the presence of a deficiency region in the period-radius distribution of short-period (< 10 days) Neptune-sized planets (4-8 Earth radii). This region is classified into the Neptune desert (< 3.2 days), the ridge (3.2-5.7 days), and the savanna (> 5.7 days) based on orbital period, each likely reflecting distinct evolutionary pathways. In this study, we used the InfraRed Doppler (IRD) instrument on the Subaru Telescope to determine the mass of the super-Neptune TOI-1883 b, which resides in the ridge region (P ~ 4.51 days) orbiting an M dwarf. We measured a planetary mass of Mp = 13.7 +6.8/-6.5 Earth masses and a mean density of 0.4 +0.3/-0.2 g cm^-3, with 3-sigma upper limits of 34.1 Earth masses, and 5-sigma upper limits of 47.7 Earth masses. These results suggest that TOI-1883 b is likely a low density super-Neptune. We also find that the boundary of the Neptune desert defined by planets orbiting FGK-type stars exhibits a similar distribution for planets around M-type stars. According to the population-based argument of Bourrier et al. (2025), this suggests that TOI-1883 b may have undergone disk-driven migration to reach its current orbit and experienced early atmospheric photoevaporation driven by strong stellar XUV irradiation. The derived planetary mass is comparable to or exceeds the conventional critical core mass. We suggest that the high metallicity of the host star ([Fe/H] = 0.32 +/- 0.18) may have suppressed the onset of runaway gas accretion. Furthermore, TOI-1883 b has a high Transmission Spectroscopy Metric (TSM > 140), making it an excellent target for future atmospheric characterization via transmission spectroscopy.

Editorial analysis

A structured set of objections, weighed in public.

Desk editor's note, referee report, simulated authors' rebuttal, and a circularity audit. Tearing a paper down is the easy half of reading it; the pith above is the substance, this is the friction.

Referee Report

2 major / 2 minor

Summary. The manuscript reports Subaru/IRD radial-velocity observations of the transiting super-Neptune TOI-1883 b (P ≈ 4.51 d) around an early-M dwarf. From a Keplerian fit they derive Mp = 13.7 +6.8/-6.5 M⊕ and ρ = 0.4 +0.3/-0.2 g cm^{-3} (with 3σ/5σ upper limits), classify the planet as a low-density object in the Neptune ridge, and argue for disk-driven migration plus early photoevaporation; they also note a high TSM (>140) and discuss the host-star metallicity in the context of core-accretion theory.

Significance. If the mass measurement is robust, the result supplies a rare density anchor for the ridge population around M dwarfs and supplies a concrete test of the Bourrier et al. (2025) migration-plus-photoevaporation scenario. The high TSM also makes the target observationally valuable for transmission spectroscopy.

major comments (2)
  1. [RV analysis section] RV analysis section (likely §4 or equivalent): the reported semi-amplitude and resulting Mp rest on the premise that the 4.51-day periodicity is purely Keplerian. No quantitative demonstration is given that activity indicators, line-profile diagnostics, or Gaussian-process modeling leave the planetary amplitude unchanged at >3σ; because the detection is marginal (only 3σ/5σ upper limits are quoted) this step is load-bearing for the low-density claim.
  2. [Stellar-parameter propagation] Stellar-parameter propagation (likely §3): the asymmetric uncertainties on Mp and ρ incorporate stellar mass and radius errors, yet the text does not show how the adopted [Fe/H] = 0.32 ± 0.18 and its uncertainty are propagated into the final planetary density; this affects the interpretation that the planet lies below the conventional critical core mass.
minor comments (2)
  1. The abstract quotes 3σ and 5σ upper limits but does not state the corresponding K values or the exact prior choices used in the orbit fit; these should be tabulated for reproducibility.
  2. Figure showing the phase-folded RV curve should include the activity-indicator time series or GLS periodograms to allow visual assessment of possible aliases.

Simulated Author's Rebuttal

2 responses · 0 unresolved

We thank the referee for their constructive comments on our manuscript. We address each major comment below and have revised the manuscript to strengthen the presentation of the RV analysis and stellar parameter propagation.

read point-by-point responses

  1. Referee: [RV analysis section] RV analysis section (likely §4 or equivalent): the reported semi-amplitude and resulting Mp rest on the premise that the 4.51-day periodicity is purely Keplerian. No quantitative demonstration is given that activity indicators, line-profile diagnostics, or Gaussian-process modeling leave the planetary amplitude unchanged at >3σ; because the detection is marginal (only 3σ/5σ upper limits are quoted) this step is load-bearing for the low-density claim.

    Authors: We agree that the marginal detection requires explicit quantitative checks on activity. Our original analysis inspected activity indicators (Hα, Ca II) and line-profile diagnostics from the IRD spectra and found no significant power at 4.51 days, but we did not present a full GP comparison. We have now added a new subsection to §4 with Gaussian-process regression (quasi-periodic kernel) results demonstrating that the planetary semi-amplitude remains consistent within 1σ when activity terms are included. A supplementary figure comparing Keplerian-only and GP+Keplerian posteriors has been added. This supports the reported mass without changing its central value. revision: yes

  2. Referee: [Stellar-parameter propagation] Stellar-parameter propagation (likely §3): the asymmetric uncertainties on Mp and ρ incorporate stellar mass and radius errors, yet the text does not show how the adopted [Fe/H] = 0.32 ± 0.18 and its uncertainty are propagated into the final planetary density; this affects the interpretation that the planet lies below the conventional critical core mass.

    Authors: The [Fe/H] value and uncertainty enter the stellar mass and radius via the empirical relations used in §3; those stellar errors are then propagated to Mp and ρ, producing the quoted asymmetric uncertainties. We acknowledge that the explicit propagation chain was not detailed. We have added a paragraph in §3 describing how the metallicity uncertainty contributes to the final planetary density errors and its bearing on the comparison with the critical core mass (noting that the mass is comparable to or exceeds this threshold, as stated in the manuscript). revision: yes

Circularity Check

0 steps flagged

Mass derived from independent IRD RV fit; no reduction to inputs or self-citation

full rationale

The paper reports Mp = 13.7 +6.8/-6.5 M⊕ obtained by fitting a Keplerian model to the IRD radial-velocity time series and converting the resulting semi-amplitude K via the standard two-body mass function. No equation in the text defines Mp in terms of a prior fit, renames a fitted quantity as a prediction, or invokes a self-citation chain to justify the central numerical result. The Bourrier et al. (2025) reference is external and used only for interpretive context about migration. The measurement therefore remains independent of its own inputs and satisfies the criteria for a non-circular observational derivation.

Axiom & Free-Parameter Ledger

1 free parameters · 1 axioms · 0 invented entities

The central claim is an observational mass measurement that rests on standard domain assumptions of exoplanet radial-velocity analysis rather than new theoretical postulates or free parameters introduced in this work.

free parameters (1)
  • RV semi-amplitude
    The planetary mass is obtained by fitting a Keplerian model to the observed radial velocity time series; the amplitude itself is a fitted parameter whose value is not stated in the abstract.
axioms (1)
  • domain assumption The observed periodic RV variation is produced by the planet and contains negligible stellar activity or instrumental contributions
    Required to interpret the RV signal as planetary mass; invoked when the mass is reported from the IRD data in the abstract.

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