Paper Citation Record · LEDGER

Nous: An Attempt to Extract and Inject the Cognition Behind Prediction-Market Behavior

As of 7 August 2026, this Paper Citation Record lists 38 of 38 outbound references and 0 inbound Pith citation observations for arXiv:2606.13038.

A citation records a reference. It does not transfer a finding from one paper to another.

pith.paper-citation-record.v1
2606.13038 v1

Coverage vector

measured 38 of 38 reference resolution

Typed states for the displayed outbound observations.

Source: paper_references, paper_reference_links, observed 2026-06-27T06:38:21.157449Z

measured 38 of 38 standing notices

One-hop event checks from named stored sources.

Source: scholarly_work_events, retraction_status_cache, observed 2026-08-07T06:34:17.273281+00:00

measured 0 of 0 inbound itemization

Pith citing papers itemized under the disclosed page cap.

Source: paper_references, paper_reference_links

measured 0 of 1 external citation measurements

A source-named dated measurement, never combined with another source.

Source: cited_works

Reference resolution

38 of 38 outbound references displayed

verified exact15
verified fuzzy0
unresolved20
parse uncertain0
malformed identifier0
metadata mismatch3

External citation measurements

No source-named external measurement is stored.

Outbound references

Observation 7f2bf1da-097a-430f-aaaa-77c403171d50 · outbound

This paper cites Conflict-Aware Fusion: Mitigating Logic Inertia in Large Language Models via Structured Cognitive Priors.

Nous: An Attempt to Extract and Inject the Cognition Behind Prediction-Market Behavior Conflict-Aware Fusion: Mitigating Logic Inertia in Large Language Models via Structured Cognitive Priors

Reference 1

Resolution: verified exact; local_arxiv, observed 2026-07-03T15:08:33.638504Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-07T06:34:17.273281+00:00.

Observation ad755606-2e8c-4a25-8c80-696d7765d1fe · outbound

This paper cites PolySwarm: A Multi-Agent Large Language Model Framework for Prediction Market Trading and Latency Arbitrage.

Nous: An Attempt to Extract and Inject the Cognition Behind Prediction-Market Behavior PolySwarm: A Multi-Agent Large Language Model Framework for Prediction Market Trading and Latency Arbitrage

Reference 2

Resolution: verified exact; local_arxiv, observed 2026-07-03T15:08:33.640840Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-07T06:34:17.273281+00:00.

Observation 03433a64-44a9-40f5-beed-b893fa0bd0e4 · outbound

This paper cites PolyBench: Benchmarking LLM Forecasting and Trading Capabilities on Live Prediction Market Data.

Nous: An Attempt to Extract and Inject the Cognition Behind Prediction-Market Behavior PolyBench: Benchmarking LLM Forecasting and Trading Capabilities on Live Prediction Market Data

Reference 3

Resolution: verified exact; local_arxiv, observed 2026-07-03T15:08:33.664286Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-07T06:34:17.273281+00:00.

Observation c46eb97d-fcae-46b2-859b-161656597ce7 · outbound

This paper cites Putnam, 1994.

Nous: An Attempt to Extract and Inject the Cognition Behind Prediction-Market Behavior Putnam, 1994

Reference 4

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-06-27T06:38:21.157449Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation c54979c3-6596-4021-b821-e976be2e734d · outbound

This paper cites Tenenbaum, and Igor Mordatch.

Nous: An Attempt to Extract and Inject the Cognition Behind Prediction-Market Behavior Tenenbaum, and Igor Mordatch

Reference 5

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-06-27T06:38:21.157449Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 53b3d8d3-2621-44cc-8cb4-0caa50b220be · outbound

This paper cites Portfolio/Penguin, 2021.

Nous: An Attempt to Extract and Inject the Cognition Behind Prediction-Market Behavior Portfolio/Penguin, 2021

Reference 6

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-06-27T06:38:21.157449Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation fd89a3da-dd92-4508-b53d-40e1b629fc5a · outbound

This paper cites Griffiths, Charles Kemp, and Joshua B.

Nous: An Attempt to Extract and Inject the Cognition Behind Prediction-Market Behavior Griffiths, Charles Kemp, and Joshua B

Reference 7

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-06-27T06:38:21.157449Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 004d8390-42d7-4187-80ee-1306a723aae7 · outbound

This paper cites Approaching Human-Level Forecasting with Language Models.

Nous: An Attempt to Extract and Inject the Cognition Behind Prediction-Market Behavior Approaching Human-Level Forecasting with Language Models

Reference 8

Resolution: metadata mismatch; arxiv_id, observed 2026-07-03T15:08:33.651240Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-07T06:34:17.273281+00:00.

Observation b00181b2-f292-48e2-982f-5336c9b25c6b · outbound

This paper cites Ojha, Ross Spoon, Jiatong Han, and Colin F.

Nous: An Attempt to Extract and Inject the Cognition Behind Prediction-Market Behavior Ojha, Ross Spoon, Jiatong Han, and Colin F

Reference 9

Resolution: verified exact; arxiv_id, observed 2026-07-03T15:08:33.639507Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-07T06:34:17.273281+00:00.

Observation 59858938-a903-4e2e-9c77-e7cbc7d28244 · outbound

This paper cites an unresolved cited work.

Nous: An Attempt to Extract and Inject the Cognition Behind Prediction-Market Behavior Unresolved cited work

Reference 10

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-06-27T06:38:21.157449Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 7a0a652e-eef1-4fba-b8f0-9c7580221722 · outbound

This paper cites Designing AI- agents with personalities: A psychometric approach.Personality Science, 2026.

Nous: An Attempt to Extract and Inject the Cognition Behind Prediction-Market Behavior Designing AI- agents with personalities: A psychometric approach.Personality Science, 2026

Reference 11

Resolution: verified exact; doi, observed 2026-06-27T06:40:38.185652Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-07T06:34:17.273281+00:00.

Observation c7569403-72b7-4af7-8dd8-091486025d93 · outbound

This paper cites Prompting for policy: Forecasting macroeconomic scenarios with synthetic LLM personas.arXiv preprint arXiv:2511.02458, 2025.

Nous: An Attempt to Extract and Inject the Cognition Behind Prediction-Market Behavior Prompting for policy: Forecasting macroeconomic scenarios with synthetic LLM personas.arXiv preprint arXiv:2511.02458, 2025

Reference 12

Resolution: verified exact; arxiv_id, observed 2026-07-03T15:08:33.648766Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-07T06:34:17.273281+00:00.

Observation fceb8997-4ce9-4b0e-ba0a-a40c3a3e9baa · outbound

This paper cites Training LLMs to predict world events.

Nous: An Attempt to Extract and Inject the Cognition Behind Prediction-Market Behavior Training LLMs to predict world events

Reference 13

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-06-27T06:38:21.157449Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 5b2a99de-e83e-4955-8da1-6ade6b1fe1eb · outbound

This paper cites Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2011.

Nous: An Attempt to Extract and Inject the Cognition Behind Prediction-Market Behavior Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2011

Reference 14

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-06-27T06:38:21.157449Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation f4be63ad-820b-4ddd-88cc-d77d4f56dfda · outbound

This paper cites Conditions for intuitive expertise: A failure to disagree.

Nous: An Attempt to Extract and Inject the Cognition Behind Prediction-Market Behavior Conditions for intuitive expertise: A failure to disagree

Reference 15

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-06-27T06:38:21.157449Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 59d7da35-aa11-485f-8d46-b024b8a6ffa0 · outbound

This paper cites Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk.

Nous: An Attempt to Extract and Inject the Cognition Behind Prediction-Market Behavior Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk

Reference 16

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-06-27T06:38:21.157449Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 24a7c8ee-fe17-4331-9f30-5ae3f79bf7a2 · outbound

This paper cites Bias-Adjusted LLM Agents for Human-Like Decision-Making via Behavioral Economics.

Nous: An Attempt to Extract and Inject the Cognition Behind Prediction-Market Behavior Bias-Adjusted LLM Agents for Human-Like Decision-Making via Behavioral Economics

Reference 17

Resolution: verified exact; arxiv_id, observed 2026-07-03T15:08:33.667562Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-07T06:34:17.273281+00:00.

Observation 0365d3e2-72d6-4a01-8edf-c7224eca456a · outbound

This paper cites MIT Press, 1998.

Nous: An Attempt to Extract and Inject the Cognition Behind Prediction-Market Behavior MIT Press, 1998

Reference 18

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-06-27T06:38:21.157449Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 0750f7ce-31b2-4d7f-9e0d-b0d9cd44c1b4 · outbound

This paper cites Coordination as an Architectural Layer for LLM-Based Multi-Agent Systems.

Nous: An Attempt to Extract and Inject the Cognition Behind Prediction-Market Behavior Coordination as an Architectural Layer for LLM-Based Multi-Agent Systems

Reference 19

Resolution: verified exact; local_arxiv, observed 2026-07-03T15:08:33.642145Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-07T06:34:17.273281+00:00.

Observation 4ca71eef-f81c-477a-a398-de8366d3ea73 · outbound

This paper cites Wainwright, Pamela Mishkin, Chong Zhang, Sandhini Agarwal, Katarina Slama, Alex Ray, et al.

Nous: An Attempt to Extract and Inject the Cognition Behind Prediction-Market Behavior Wainwright, Pamela Mishkin, Chong Zhang, Sandhini Agarwal, Katarina Slama, Alex Ray, et al

Reference 20

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-06-27T06:38:21.157449Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 65a366dd-bae0-40a3-932f-33802499e2b9 · outbound

This paper cites O’Brien, Carrie J.

Nous: An Attempt to Extract and Inject the Cognition Behind Prediction-Market Behavior O’Brien, Carrie J

Reference 21

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-06-27T06:38:21.157449Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation ec9674de-23c3-4ec5-8423-4c9c6f2b6cd8 · outbound

This paper cites Cheng et al.

Nous: An Attempt to Extract and Inject the Cognition Behind Prediction-Market Behavior Cheng et al

Reference 22

Resolution: metadata mismatch; arxiv_id, observed 2026-07-03T15:08:33.653872Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-07T06:34:17.273281+00:00.

Observation 8aac806e-7ea8-418e-90e0-ecc69a7f0d5c · outbound

This paper cites Manning, and Chelsea Finn.

Nous: An Attempt to Extract and Inject the Cognition Behind Prediction-Market Behavior Manning, and Chelsea Finn

Reference 23

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-06-27T06:38:21.157449Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 0193928d-0c64-4ffc-9062-8fe36321be9b · outbound

This paper cites In-context impersonation reveals large language models’ strengths and biases.

Nous: An Attempt to Extract and Inject the Cognition Behind Prediction-Market Behavior In-context impersonation reveals large language models’ strengths and biases

Reference 24

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-06-27T06:38:21.157449Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 6c62a96e-b84c-4c18-a3db-5b2c17d74e03 · outbound

This paper cites Park, Rafael Valdece Sousa Bastos, and Philip E.

Nous: An Attempt to Extract and Inject the Cognition Behind Prediction-Market Behavior Park, Rafael Valdece Sousa Bastos, and Philip E

Reference 25

Resolution: verified exact; doi, observed 2026-06-27T06:40:38.183400Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-07T06:34:17.273281+00:00.

Observation 45d636bd-a022-4030-b919-657cb9f2a484 · outbound

This paper cites Role-play with large language models.

Nous: An Attempt to Extract and Inject the Cognition Behind Prediction-Market Behavior Role-play with large language models

Reference 26

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-06-27T06:38:21.157449Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 11d4d417-afc7-4ad3-af38-25fa8677b846 · outbound

This paper cites The Oracle's Fingerprint: Correlated AI Forecasting Errors and the Limits of Bias Transmission.

Nous: An Attempt to Extract and Inject the Cognition Behind Prediction-Market Behavior The Oracle's Fingerprint: Correlated AI Forecasting Errors and the Limits of Bias Transmission

Reference 27

Resolution: verified exact; local_arxiv, observed 2026-07-03T15:08:33.670170Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-07T06:34:17.273281+00:00.

Observation 3f88ffba-34fd-41c3-a4c8-6584b478560b · outbound

This paper cites Doubleday, 2004.

Nous: An Attempt to Extract and Inject the Cognition Behind Prediction-Market Behavior Doubleday, 2004

Reference 28

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-06-27T06:38:21.157449Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation ab8eea87-e36b-4bcd-bef7-904e68c9966c · outbound

This paper cites Tetlock.Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?Princeton University Press, 2005.

Nous: An Attempt to Extract and Inject the Cognition Behind Prediction-Market Behavior Tetlock.Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?Princeton University Press, 2005

Reference 29

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-06-27T06:38:21.157449Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation b5c34a84-2c38-46c5-9549-0e100b302012 · outbound

This paper cites Tetlock and Dan Gardner.Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction.

Nous: An Attempt to Extract and Inject the Cognition Behind Prediction-Market Behavior Tetlock and Dan Gardner.Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

Reference 30

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-06-27T06:38:21.157449Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 70730d47-a638-46b0-8ff4-ac97ca3e79da · outbound

This paper cites Advances in prospect theory: Cumulative representation of uncertainty.Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 5(4):297–323, 1992.

Nous: An Attempt to Extract and Inject the Cognition Behind Prediction-Market Behavior Advances in prospect theory: Cumulative representation of uncertainty.Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 5(4):297–323, 1992

Reference 31

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-06-27T06:38:21.157449Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation a8a0803b-3629-46cc-9962-72c77b2ea367 · outbound

This paper cites Multiperspectivity as a resource for narrative similarity prediction.

Nous: An Attempt to Extract and Inject the Cognition Behind Prediction-Market Behavior Multiperspectivity as a resource for narrative similarity prediction

Reference 32

Resolution: verified exact; arxiv_id, observed 2026-07-03T15:08:33.661726Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-07T06:34:17.273281+00:00.

Observation 2ef9fb78-6fef-44cf-a275-9144f0e9fd21 · outbound

This paper cites Beyond inherent cognition biases in LLM-based event forecasting: A multi-cognition agentic framework.

Nous: An Attempt to Extract and Inject the Cognition Behind Prediction-Market Behavior Beyond inherent cognition biases in LLM-based event forecasting: A multi-cognition agentic framework

Reference 33

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-06-27T06:38:21.157449Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 56cbc68a-3b89-4c00-bd4c-e8e7b3ab5669 · outbound

This paper cites Think fast and slow: Step-level cognitive depth adaptation for llm agents.

Nous: An Attempt to Extract and Inject the Cognition Behind Prediction-Market Behavior Think fast and slow: Step-level cognitive depth adaptation for llm agents

Reference 34

Resolution: verified exact; arxiv_id, observed 2026-07-03T15:08:33.659077Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-07T06:34:17.273281+00:00.

Observation d4906f11-64e3-4f57-8bad-04162b40cade · outbound

This paper cites Twinmarket: A scalable behavioral and social simulation for financial markets.

Nous: An Attempt to Extract and Inject the Cognition Behind Prediction-Market Behavior Twinmarket: A scalable behavioral and social simulation for financial markets

Reference 35

Resolution: verified exact; arxiv_id, observed 2026-07-03T15:08:33.653505Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-07T06:34:17.273281+00:00.

Observation c47113f1-7a48-4c3f-9f92-ad90f7c8f68d · outbound

This paper cites Decoding the human factor: High fidelity behavioral prediction for strategic foresight.arXiv preprint arXiv:2602.17222, 2026.

Nous: An Attempt to Extract and Inject the Cognition Behind Prediction-Market Behavior Decoding the human factor: High fidelity behavioral prediction for strategic foresight.arXiv preprint arXiv:2602.17222, 2026

Reference 36

Resolution: verified exact; arxiv_id, observed 2026-07-03T15:08:33.650759Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-07T06:34:17.273281+00:00.

Observation 102b072c-907a-4dc1-9af0-3c8b5d78ce73 · outbound

This paper cites Prediction Arena: Benchmarking AI Models on Real-World Prediction Markets.

Nous: An Attempt to Extract and Inject the Cognition Behind Prediction-Market Behavior Prediction Arena: Benchmarking AI Models on Real-World Prediction Markets

Reference 37

Resolution: verified exact; local_arxiv, observed 2026-07-03T15:08:33.644847Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-07T06:34:17.273281+00:00.

Observation d77305b1-2cf0-480e-a8d5-ac77787a34c9 · outbound

This paper cites Eliciting the Priors of Large Language Models using Iterated In-Context Learning.

Nous: An Attempt to Extract and Inject the Cognition Behind Prediction-Market Behavior Eliciting the Priors of Large Language Models using Iterated In-Context Learning

Reference 38

Resolution: metadata mismatch; arxiv_id, observed 2026-07-03T15:08:33.656180Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-07T06:34:17.273281+00:00.

Pith citing papers

No inbound Pith citation observations are available.