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arxiv: 2606.17938 · v1 · pith:7TNSCFIInew · submitted 2026-06-16 · ⚛️ physics.geo-ph

Joint Analysis of Shannon and Tsallis Entropy and GRACE-FO driven Equivalent Water Height Anomalies for Pre- and Post-Rupture Monitoring: An Example of the 2023 Mw = 7.8 Kahramanmarac{s} Earthquake, T\"urkiye

Muhammed Hossein Mousavi , Hamzeh Mohammadigheymasi , Amirreza Moradi This is my paper

Pith reviewed 2026-06-26 21:47 UTC · model grok-4.3

classification ⚛️ physics.geo-ph
keywords Shannon entropyTsallis entropyGRACE-FOEquivalent Water HeightKahramanmaraş earthquakefault criticalityseismic monitoringEast Anatolian Fault
0
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The pith

Pre-rupture entropy rises and equivalent water height falls signal a shift to fault network criticality before the 2023 Kahramanmaraş earthquake.

A machine-rendered reading of the paper's core claim, the machinery that carries it, and where it could break.

The paper combines a 25-year seismic catalog with GRACE-FO equivalent water height data and Shannon plus Tsallis entropy measures to track changes in the East Anatolian Fault System around the 2023 Mw 7.8 event. It reports systematic pre-rupture entropy growth paired with gradual EWH decline, which the authors tie to processes that move the fault network toward a critical state. Co-seismic and post-seismic phases show abrupt then persistent anomalies that the work links to aftershock activity and relaxation. A reader would care because the approach offers a joint information-theoretic and satellite-gravity method for observing the full seismic cycle rather than seismicity counts alone.

Core claim

The paper establishes that the pre-rupture period shows rising Shannon and Tsallis entropy together with falling EWH, indicating transition to criticality through segment fragmentation, long-range correlations, poroelastic contraction, fluid migration, and stress buildup. The co-seismic phase produces an abrupt entropy increase and negative EWH shift. Post-seismic persistence of elevated entropy and EWH anomalies shows the system remains out of equilibrium, governed by aftershock clustering, fault damage, permeability changes, and viscoelastic relaxation. Structured algorithms are supplied to reproduce the joint entropy-EWH analysis from the catalog and satellite data.

What carries the argument

The joint data integration framework that applies Shannon and Tsallis entropy to the seismic catalog while cross-referencing GRACE-FO equivalent water height anomalies to detect pre-, co-, and post-rupture changes in fault complexity.

If this is right

  • Pre-rupture entropy growth and EWH decline can serve as indicators of approaching fault network criticality.
  • Co-seismic rupture produces an immediate entropy jump and EWH drop.
  • Post-seismic entropy and EWH remain elevated because of aftershock clustering, damage, and relaxation.
  • The supplied algorithms allow exact reproduction of the entropy-EWH relationship from catalog and satellite inputs.

Where Pith is reading between the lines

These are editorial extensions of the paper, not claims the author makes directly.

  • The same entropy-EWH pairing could be applied to other strike-slip fault systems to test whether pre-rupture signals repeat.
  • If the patterns hold, the method might be combined with other satellite observables to build continuous monitoring of fault state.
  • Direct comparison of entropy-EWH time series against purely seasonal hydrological models would clarify whether the pre-rupture signal can be isolated from non-tectonic effects.

Load-bearing premise

The reported entropy increases and EWH decreases are produced by seismic-cycle mechanisms such as segment fragmentation and fluid migration rather than by seasonal hydrology, processing artifacts, or catalog gaps.

What would settle it

Absence of rising entropy and falling EWH before another large earthquake on a comparable fault system, or presence of identical patterns during a multi-year interval with no major events, would undermine the claimed link to criticality.

Figures

Figures reproduced from arXiv: 2606.17938 by Amirreza Moradi, Hamzeh Mohammadigheymasi, Muhammed Hossein Mousavi.

Figure 1
Figure 1. Figure 1: Seismotectonic map of the study area. The main panel shows the spatial distribution of regional [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p009_1.png] view at source ↗
Figure 2
Figure 2. Figure 2: Spatial variation of Shannon entropy (a) 2.5 years before, (b) 1 year before, (c) 1 year after, [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p012_2.png] view at source ↗
Figure 3
Figure 3. Figure 3: Spatial variation of Tsallis entropy (a) 2.5 years before, (b) 1 year before, (c) 1 year after, and [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p015_3.png] view at source ↗
Figure 4
Figure 4. Figure 4: Spatial variation of GRACE-FO terrestrial water storage anomalies (a) 4 months before, (b) [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p016_4.png] view at source ↗
read the original abstract

In order to understand the variations in fault systems throughout the seismogenic cycle, mechanical states and the complexities of seismic interactions must be considered. In this study, we present a data integration framework combining a 25-year seismic catalog with Equivalent Water Height (EWH) datasets from the GRACE-FO mission and two information-theoretic complexity measures (Shannon and Tsallis entropy) to examine spatiotemporal changes in the East Anatolian Fault System associated with the 2023 Kahramanmara\c{s} earthquake doublet. The pre-rupture period exhibits a systematic increase in the entropy measures alongside a gradual decrease in EWH, suggesting a transition towards fault network criticality driven by segment fragmentation, long-range correlations, poroelastic contraction, fluid migration, and progressive stress accumulation. During the co-seismic phase, we observe an abrupt increase in entropy with a corresponding negative shift in EWH. In the post-seismic period, the persistence of elevated entropy and EWH anomalies indicates that the fault system remains in a non-equilibrium state dominated by aftershock clustering, fault zone damage, permeability changes, and viscoelastic relaxation. Additionally, structured computational workflows detailing these joint methodologies are provided via the Seismic Entropy Analysis (Algorithm 1) and the Relationship Between Tsallis q and Gutenberg-Richter b-value (Algorithm 2) pseudo-codes, facilitating the direct reproduction and regeneration of all results.

Editorial analysis

A structured set of objections, weighed in public.

Desk editor's note, referee report, simulated authors' rebuttal, and a circularity audit. Tearing a paper down is the easy half of reading it; the pith above is the substance, this is the friction.

Referee Report

2 major / 1 minor

Summary. The manuscript presents a data integration framework combining a 25-year seismic catalog with GRACE-FO Equivalent Water Height (EWH) anomalies and Shannon/Tsallis entropy measures to analyze spatiotemporal changes in the East Anatolian Fault System before, during, and after the 2023 Mw=7.8 Kahramanmaraş earthquake. It reports a pre-rupture systematic entropy increase paired with gradual EWH decrease (interpreted as transition to fault-network criticality via segment fragmentation, poroelastic contraction, fluid migration and stress accumulation), an abrupt co-seismic entropy rise with negative EWH shift, and persistent post-seismic anomalies, while supplying pseudo-code for Seismic Entropy Analysis (Algorithm 1) and the Tsallis-q / Gutenberg-Richter b-value relation (Algorithm 2).

Significance. If the reported patterns can be robustly isolated from non-seismic signals, the joint entropy-EWH approach could provide a new observational window on fault-system evolution across the seismic cycle. The explicit provision of pseudo-code algorithms is a clear strength that supports direct reproducibility.

major comments (2)
  1. [Abstract] Abstract: the mechanistic attribution of the pre-rupture EWH decline and entropy rise to segment fragmentation, poroelastic contraction, fluid migration and progressive stress accumulation is presented without any described seasonal decomposition, control-region comparison, or magnitude-of-completeness stability test, leaving the central causal claim indistinguishable from seasonal hydrology, GRACE processing filters, or catalog artifacts.
  2. [Abstract] Abstract: the statements of a 'systematic increase in the entropy measures' and 'gradual decrease in EWH' are given without reference to statistical tests, error bars, confidence intervals, or p-values, so the degree to which the data support the claimed patterns cannot be assessed.
minor comments (1)
  1. The abstract refers to 'structured computational workflows' and Algorithms 1–2 but does not indicate whether the full manuscript supplies the actual pseudo-code or only high-level descriptions.

Simulated Author's Rebuttal

2 responses · 0 unresolved

We thank the referee for the constructive comments on our manuscript. We address each major point below and indicate where revisions to the abstract and supporting text will be made to improve clarity and rigor.

read point-by-point responses

  1. Referee: [Abstract] Abstract: the mechanistic attribution of the pre-rupture EWH decline and entropy rise to segment fragmentation, poroelastic contraction, fluid migration and progressive stress accumulation is presented without any described seasonal decomposition, control-region comparison, or magnitude-of-completeness stability test, leaving the central causal claim indistinguishable from seasonal hydrology, GRACE processing filters, or catalog artifacts.

    Authors: We agree that the abstract presents the mechanistic interpretation without referencing explicit checks for seasonal decomposition, control regions, or magnitude-of-completeness stability. The full manuscript describes the 25-year catalog processing and standard GRACE-FO filter handling in the Methods, but does not include dedicated seasonal decomposition or control-region comparisons. We will revise the abstract to qualify the attribution as an interpretation of the observed joint patterns rather than a definitive causal claim, and add a brief clause directing readers to the data-processing steps in the main text. revision: yes

  2. Referee: [Abstract] Abstract: the statements of a 'systematic increase in the entropy measures' and 'gradual decrease in EWH' are given without reference to statistical tests, error bars, confidence intervals, or p-values, so the degree to which the data support the claimed patterns cannot be assessed.

    Authors: We acknowledge that the abstract states the patterns without citing formal statistical tests or uncertainty measures. The main text supports the descriptions through visual consistency of the multi-year time series across both entropy measures and EWH, but does not report p-values or confidence intervals. We will revise the abstract to reference the observed trends as derived from the time-series analysis and note the supporting consistency across independent measures, while avoiding unsubstantiated statistical language. revision: yes

Circularity Check

0 steps flagged

No circularity: purely observational integration of independent datasets with no derivation chain

full rationale

The manuscript performs joint observational analysis of a seismic catalog, GRACE-FO EWH time series, and Shannon/Tsallis entropy computed on the catalog. No equations are presented that derive one quantity from another by construction, no parameters are fitted to a subset and then relabeled as predictions, and no load-bearing claims rest on self-citations or imported uniqueness theorems. Algorithms 1 and 2 are explicit computational procedures for entropy calculation and q-b relation, not derivations. The central interpretations (pre-rupture entropy rise and EWH decline) are presented as empirical observations whose mechanistic attribution is left as an untested hypothesis, not as a result forced by the analysis itself. The work is therefore self-contained against external benchmarks and receives the default non-circularity finding.

Axiom & Free-Parameter Ledger

0 free parameters · 0 axioms · 0 invented entities

Abstract-only review supplies no explicit free parameters, axioms, or invented entities; the ledger is therefore empty.

pith-pipeline@v0.9.1-grok · 5824 in / 1239 out tokens · 26964 ms · 2026-06-26T21:47:08.852947+00:00 · methodology

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Reference graph

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