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arxiv: 2606.22619 · v1 · pith:HQS4WFQCnew · submitted 2026-06-21 · 🌌 astro-ph.SR · astro-ph.GA· astro-ph.HE

Comparative Study of Two Luminous Red Novae I. Progenitor Modeling and Dust Formation

M. Wavasseur , N. Blagorodnova , M. A. G\'omez-Mu\~noz , O. R. Pols This is my paper

Pith reviewed 2026-06-26 09:38 UTC · model grok-4.3

classification 🌌 astro-ph.SR astro-ph.GAastro-ph.HE
keywords luminous red novaebinary progenitorscommon-envelope evolutiondust formationMESA stellar modelsAT2021biyAT2021bluenvelope ejection
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The pith

Binary models constrain donor masses in two luminous red novae to 18-23 and 14 solar masses, with dust masses far below ejected gas amounts.

A machine-rendered reading of the paper's core claim, the machinery that carries it, and where it could break.

The paper uses grids of binary stellar evolution tracks to model the progenitors of AT2021biy and AT2021blu. It applies mass-transfer instability criteria to find donor masses that allow mergers on observed timescales. Ejected envelope masses are estimated and compared to light-curve models, favoring certain mass ratios. Infrared data show dust masses are much smaller than total ejecta, indicating inefficient dust condensation.

Core claim

Donor masses are constrained to Md = 18-23 Msun for AT2021biy and Md = 14 +/- 0.5 Msun for AT2021blu. Lower limits on ejected envelope mass are 0.03-2.98 Msun for AT2021biy and 0.02-0.1 Msun for AT2021blu. The inferred dust masses are 1-5 orders of magnitude below the estimated ejected envelope masses, implying that only a small fraction of the gas condenses into dust.

What carries the argument

MESA binary evolution tracks selected by mass-transfer instability criteria to identify merging progenitors.

If this is right

  • The light-curve models favor intermediate mass ratios q = 3-10 for AT2021biy and q = 5-15 for AT2021blu.
  • The evolution is consistent with shock interaction and pre-existing circumstellar material.
  • Pre-outburst mass loss is predicted by the models.
  • Only a small fraction of the gas condenses into dust in these events.

Where Pith is reading between the lines

These are editorial extensions of the paper, not claims the author makes directly.

  • Applying similar progenitor modeling to additional luminous red novae could reveal patterns in binary parameters.
  • The inefficiency of dust formation may influence the interpretation of infrared signatures in other stellar mergers.
  • Future observations of circumstellar material could test the predicted pre-outburst mass loss rates.

Load-bearing premise

The mass-transfer instability criteria accurately identify which binary systems will merge on timescales matching the observations.

What would settle it

Finding a donor star mass outside the constrained ranges through independent observations or discovering that the merger timescales do not match the models would challenge the progenitor constraints.

Figures

Figures reproduced from arXiv: 2606.22619 by M. A. G\'omez-Mu\~noz, M. Wavasseur, N. Blagorodnova, O. R. Pols.

Figure 1
Figure 1. Figure 1: Multi-band light curves of AT2021blu from the ZTF and Pan￾STARRS surveys, including 10-day–binned forced photometry. The single-epoch (dotted line) HST/ACS observations in the F606W and F814W filters have been converted into Sloan r and i-filters and over￾plotted as reference points. The reference epoch is the discovery date MJD 59246.467. We also used near-IR fluxes from the NEOWISE catalogue (Mainzer et … view at source ↗
Figure 2
Figure 2. Figure 2: Spitzer/IRAC cutouts illustrating the mid-infrared photometric evolution of the transient AT2021blu from 2007 to 2012 in the 3.6µm and 4.5µm bands (left and right columns, respectively). Each panel shows a (48"×48") field of view centered on the target. and F814W = 21.411 ± 0.034 mag for AT2021biy, which is in excellent agreement with Cai et al. (2022) 5 . We applied the same methodology in the case of AT2… view at source ↗
Figure 3
Figure 3. Figure 3: Blackbody fits to the multi-band observations of AT2021blu, illustrating the SED evolution across the 2006, 2010, 2010–2012, and 2019 epochs (top panel), and using ZTF forced photometry shown in [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p005_3.png] view at source ↗
Figure 4
Figure 4. Figure 4: Top panels: The main types of stellar evolution for the AT2021biy and AT2021blu progenitor systems found in Figs. D.1 and D.2. We display the following key moments in the evolution: A) the end of MS phase, B) the onset of RLOF, C) the maximum overfilling factor and D) the moment of max M˙ d. Single-star models of the progenitors are indicated with gray lines. Bottom panels: The associated mass lost rates f… view at source ↗
Figure 5
Figure 5. Figure 5: Progenitor systems that match the observed HR location while undergoing OLOF are shown here for the two transients, AT2021biy and AT2021blu. The mass transfer phase begins at the red circle, while the OLOF occurs at the black circle. Single-star models of the progenitors are indicated with gray thin lines. In the case of AT2021biy, all the displayed progenitors correspond to a mass ratio q = 10. In the cas… view at source ↗
Figure 6
Figure 6. Figure 6: Mass-transfer rates of the progenitor configurations shown in [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p011_6.png] view at source ↗
Figure 7
Figure 7. Figure 7: The ejecta mass Me j inferred from the energy-budget at the mo￾ment of the OLOF for each mass ratio (shown by intersections A,B,C and D). We also display with a white hatched region, the uncertain￾ties associated with this resolution method. The thickness of the black curve corresponding to the envelope binding energy and the bulk ki￾netic energy of the ejecta Ebind + Eej, represents the uncertainties on t… view at source ↗
Figure 8
Figure 8. Figure 8: Similar to 9 but for AT2021biy phases measured to the MJD 59243.56 and a correction for foreground reddening of E(B − V)=0.271mag. 10 0 10 1 10 4 10 5 10 6 L [L ] +85d AT2021blu 10 0 10 1 +295d 10 0 10 1 +659d 10 0 10 1 +1023d Wavelength [ m] [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p015_8.png] view at source ↗
Figure 9
Figure 9. Figure 9: Evolution of the SED of AT2021blu with phases measured relative to the MJD 59246.467. Observed fluxes were corrected for foreground reddening of E(B − V)=0.02mag. The black solid line shows the best-fitting dusty model. A blackbody is shown (red dashed line) for reference at the first epoch. vational uncertainties and propose a methodological refinement for estimating the mass of the ejecta. One major impr… view at source ↗
Figure 11
Figure 11. Figure 11 [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p017_11.png] view at source ↗
Figure 10
Figure 10. Figure 10: Evolution of the AT2021biy and AT2021blu dust properties. The data displayed here are those presented in [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p017_10.png] view at source ↗
Figure 12
Figure 12. Figure 12: Ejecta velocity as a function of radius for several values of the velocity–profile parameter b in the case of a Md = 22M⊙ donor star for AT2021biy. As a reference, we also plot the density profile and the horizontal dotted line shows the observed terminal velocity v∞. The vertical gray region shows what is beyond the star’s surface. Ee j(Menv) = 1 2 Z Md,ce Md,ce−Menv v 2 e j(m)dm . (11) Adopting such a p… view at source ↗
read the original abstract

Luminous red novae are astrophysical transients associated with unstable mass transfer in interacting binaries and are commonly interpreted as outcomes of common-envelope evolution, possibly ending in merger. These interactions can liberate large amounts of gas, part of which may later condense into dust. We study the luminous red novae AT2021biy and AT2021blu to constrain their binary progenitors, estimate the mass ejected during the outbursts, and infer the dust mass from the infrared evolution of their remnants. We computed two grids of binary stellar-evolution tracks with the MESA binary module, constrained by pre-outburst photometry. We applied mass-transfer instability criteria to select progenitors able to merge on timescales compatible with archival observations. From these models, we estimated the gas mass lost during the mass-transfer phase and lower and upper bounds on the envelope mass that could be ejected during common-envelope evolution using the available orbital energy. We compared these ejecta-mass estimates with values inferred from light-curve models. Finally, we modeled mid-infrared NEOWISE data to derive dust masses up to ~3 years post-outburst, providing an additional lower limit on the total ejecta mass. We constrained the donor masses to Md = 18-23 Msun for AT2021biy and Md = 14 +/- 0.5 Msun for AT2021blu. Lower limits on the ejected envelope mass are 0.03-2.98 Msun for AT2021biy and 0.02-0.1 Msun for AT2021blu. Comparison with light-curve models favors intermediate mass ratios, q = 3-10 for AT2021biy and q = 5-15 for AT2021blu. The inferred dust masses are 1-5 orders of magnitude below the estimated ejected envelope masses, implying that only a small fraction of the gas condenses into dust. Their evolution is consistent with shock interaction and suggests pre-existing circumstellar material, in line with the pre-outburst mass loss predicted by our MESA models.

Editorial analysis

A structured set of objections, weighed in public.

Desk editor's note, referee report, simulated authors' rebuttal, and a circularity audit. Tearing a paper down is the easy half of reading it; the pith above is the substance, this is the friction.

Referee Report

2 major / 2 minor

Summary. The paper models progenitors of luminous red novae AT2021biy and AT2021blu via two grids of MESA binary evolution tracks constrained by pre-outburst photometry. Mass-transfer instability criteria are used to select tracks that merge on timescales matching archival data. From the selected models, gas mass lost during mass transfer and bounds on common-envelope ejecta (using orbital energy) are estimated and compared to light-curve inferences. Mid-IR NEOWISE data are modeled to derive dust masses up to ~3 yr post-outburst. Central results are donor masses Md = 18-23 Msun (AT2021biy) and Md = 14 ± 0.5 Msun (AT2021blu), ejected-envelope lower limits of 0.03-2.98 Msun and 0.02-0.1 Msun respectively, preference for intermediate mass ratios from light-curve comparison, and dust masses 1-5 orders of magnitude below ejecta (implying limited condensation).

Significance. If the progenitor constraints and ejecta-dust comparison hold, the work supplies observationally anchored limits on binary parameters for LRNs and quantifies the small dust fraction in their ejecta, with implications for common-envelope evolution and pre-outburst mass loss in massive binaries. Strengths include photometry-constrained MESA grids, direct comparison to light-curve models, and modeling of NEOWISE mid-IR evolution.

major comments (2)
  1. [progenitor selection (methods)] § on progenitor selection (methods section describing MESA grid filtering): The quoted donor-mass ranges (Md = 18-23 Msun for AT2021biy; Md = 14 ± 0.5 Msun for AT2021blu) are obtained only after applying mass-transfer instability criteria to retain tracks whose merger timescales match archival observations. The abstract states that this filtering step is performed but supplies neither the explicit mathematical formulation of the criteria (e.g., the precise combination of Roche-lobe overflow stability limits and angular-momentum-loss thresholds) nor any sensitivity tests to variations in those thresholds. Because the final mass windows are defined by this selection, the absence of the formulation and tests makes the reported ranges dependent on unstated modeling choices.
  2. [results (ejecta comparison)] Comparison of ejecta-mass estimates with light-curve models (results section): The paper states that the comparison 'favors intermediate mass ratios, q = 3-10 for AT2021biy and q = 5-15 for AT2021blu,' yet does not report the quantitative metric (e.g., χ^{2} or overlap fraction) used to establish this preference or the range of q values explored in the light-curve models. This step is load-bearing for the claim that the MESA-derived ejecta bounds are consistent with observations.
minor comments (2)
  1. The abstract refers to 'lower and upper bounds on the envelope mass that could be ejected during common-envelope evolution using the available orbital energy' without stating the explicit expressions or assumed efficiency factors (α_CE, λ) used to compute them.
  2. Notation for mass ratio q is introduced in the abstract but its definition (M_donor/M_accretor or inverse) is not restated in the results when the favored ranges are quoted.

Simulated Author's Rebuttal

2 responses · 0 unresolved

We thank the referee for their careful reading of the manuscript and constructive comments. We address each major comment below.

read point-by-point responses

  1. Referee: The quoted donor-mass ranges (Md = 18-23 Msun for AT2021biy; Md = 14 ± 0.5 Msun for AT2021blu) are obtained only after applying mass-transfer instability criteria to retain tracks whose merger timescales match archival observations. The abstract states that this filtering step is performed but supplies neither the explicit mathematical formulation of the criteria (e.g., the precise combination of Roche-lobe overflow stability limits and angular-momentum-loss thresholds) nor any sensitivity tests to variations in those thresholds. Because the final mass windows are defined by this selection, the absence of the formulation and tests makes the reported ranges dependent on unstated modeling choices.

    Authors: We agree that the explicit formulation of the mass-transfer instability criteria and associated sensitivity tests were not presented with sufficient detail. In the revised manuscript we will add the precise mathematical criteria (Roche-lobe overflow stability limits combined with angular-momentum-loss thresholds) used to filter the MESA tracks, together with the resulting sensitivity tests that confirm the robustness of the reported donor-mass windows. revision: yes

  2. Referee: The paper states that the comparison 'favors intermediate mass ratios, q = 3-10 for AT2021biy and q = 5-15 for AT2021blu,' yet does not report the quantitative metric (e.g., χ^{2} or overlap fraction) used to establish this preference or the range of q values explored in the light-curve models. This step is load-bearing for the claim that the MESA-derived ejecta bounds are consistent with observations.

    Authors: We acknowledge that the quantitative metric and the explored range of mass ratios q were omitted from the results section. The revised manuscript will report the specific metric (χ^{2} or overlap fraction) employed for the comparison and will explicitly state the range of q values tested in the light-curve models, thereby substantiating the stated preference for intermediate mass ratios. revision: yes

Circularity Check

0 steps flagged

No significant circularity; derivation uses external MESA tracks and separate IR modeling

full rationale

The paper computes MESA binary grids constrained by pre-outburst photometry, applies mass-transfer instability criteria to select merging progenitors matching archival timescales, estimates ejecta masses from orbital energy, and derives dust masses from NEOWISE IR data. None of these steps reduce the reported donor masses (Md = 18-23 Msun, 14 +/- 0.5 Msun) or dust masses to fitted parameters by the paper's own equations; the selection and comparison steps rely on external code and independent light-curve models rather than self-definition or self-citation chains. The derivation remains self-contained against external benchmarks.

Axiom & Free-Parameter Ledger

0 free parameters · 2 axioms · 0 invented entities

The central claim rests on the validity of MESA binary evolution tracks, mass-transfer instability criteria, and light-curve models for inferring ejecta masses; no free parameters or invented entities are explicitly introduced in the abstract.

axioms (2)
  • domain assumption MESA binary module and chosen mass-transfer instability criteria correctly identify merging progenitors on observed timescales
    Used to select viable tracks from grids constrained by pre-outburst photometry
  • domain assumption Light-curve models provide reliable estimates of ejected envelope mass for comparison
    Comparison with these models favors intermediate mass ratios

pith-pipeline@v0.9.1-grok · 5948 in / 1354 out tokens · 22044 ms · 2026-06-26T09:38:10.862934+00:00 · methodology

discussion (0)

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