Observing a 542-day transiting giant with large TTVs: The 2025 transit of HIP 41378 f and new constraints on the outer system

Akihiko Fukui; Alexandre Santerne; Avi Shporer; Christopher R. Mann; Daniel Bayliss; David Charbonneau; Denise C. Stephens; Edward M. Bryant; Eric G. Hintz; Gareb Fern\'andez-Rodr\'iguez

REVIEW 1 major objections 2 minor 299 references

Observing a 542-day transiting giant with large TTVs: The 2025 transit of HIP 41378 f and new constraints on the outer system

T0 review · 1 major / 2 minor · reviewed 2026-06-30 · grok-4.3

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Pith's one-line read The 2025 transit of HIP 41378 f occurred about 7 hours earlier than its linear ephemeris predicted, confirming measurable TTVs for this 542-day planet.

desk verdict The new transit timing for HIP 41378 f is a solid addition, but the N-body analysis rests on an untested assumption that only the known planets drive the TTVs. read the letter →

arxiv 2606.23551 v2 pith:2LVH3GC2 submitted 2026-06-22 astro-ph.EP

Pietro Leonardi , Alexandre Santerne , Luca Borsato , Salomé Grouffal , Christopher R. Mann , Giampaolo Piotto , Karen A. Collins , Patrick Tamburo

show 22 more authors

Yugo Kawai Denise C. Stephens Juliana García-Mejía Edward M. Bryant Krzysztof Sz. Zielinski Daniel Bayliss David Charbonneau Jerome P. de Leon Gareb Fernández-Rodríguez Akihiko Fukui Eric G. Hintz Keith Horne Keisuke Isogai James S. Jenkins Norio Narita Ramotholo Sefako Avi Shporer Richard P. Schwarz Gregor Srdoc Peter Wheatley Jamie B. Williams Jorge Fernández Fernández

This is my paper · ORCID

classification astro-ph.EP

keywords exoplanettransittimingvariationsHIP41378long-periodexoplanetsN-bodysimulationsplanetarydynamicsphotometry

verification ladder T0 review T1 audit T2 compute T3 formal

The pith

A machine-rendered reading of the paper's core claim, the machinery that carries it, and where it could break.

The reading

The paper presents photometric observations from multiple telescopes that captured the full 19-hour transit of the long-period giant HIP 41378 f. The measured time of inferior conjunction falls 7 hours before the linear prediction, matching the amplitude and sign of previously reported transit timing variations. This timing offset establishes HIP 41378 f as the longest-period exoplanet with detected TTVs. The authors combine the new datum with prior timings of planets d and e and run N-body integrations to refine the outer planets' ephemerides and forecast their future transits.

What carries the argument

N-body dynamical modeling with the TRADES integrator that treats the observed TTVs as the direct result of mutual gravitational interactions among the three known transiting planets.

What would settle it

A future transit of HIP 41378 f whose mid-transit time deviates by more than a few hours from the refined ephemeris prediction would falsify the three-planet dynamical model.

Watch

Extended reading notes

Core claim

The coordinated campaign measured the inferior conjunction of HIP 41378 f at T_C = 2460980.888 ± 0.029 BJD_TDB on 31 October 2025. This value lies approximately 7 hours earlier than the linear ephemeris, consistent with the TTV signal driven by gravitational perturbations from the inner transiting planets. The new constraint, when fed into TRADES N-body modeling together with the timings of HIP 41378 d and e, yields an updated ephemeris and transit predictions for all three outer planets.

Load-bearing premise

The timing variations are produced solely by interactions among the three known transiting planets and are not appreciably affected by undetected bodies or by larger uncertainties in the planets' masses and eccentricities.

Editorial extensions

If this is right

The refined ephemeris supplies accurate predictions for the next several transits of HIP 41378 d, e, and f.
The updated orbital elements tighten the allowed ranges for the masses and eccentricities of the outer planets.
The confirmed TTV signal demonstrates that long-period planets near mean-motion resonances can produce hour-scale timing shifts detectable from the ground.
Repeated transit observations of the outer planets can continue to test and improve the dynamical solution over the coming years.

Reading between the lines

Editorial extensions of the paper, not claims the author makes directly.

If additional planets exist in the system they must produce TTV amplitudes smaller than the current measurement precision or they would already appear in the residuals.
The same observing strategy used here could be applied to other long-period transiting giants to search for TTVs and thereby constrain unseen companions.
The measured TTV phase and amplitude could eventually be inverted for the masses of planets d and e once more transits are observed.

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Editorial analysis

A structured set of objections, weighed in public.

Desk editor's note, referee report, simulated authors' rebuttal, and a circularity audit.

Desk Editor's Note

read the letter

The punchline for this paper is straightforward: it reports a new, high-precision transit midpoint for the long-period giant HIP 41378 f from its 2025 event, which arrives about seven hours early compared to a linear ephemeris. This adds one more data point to the known TTV signal in the system.

What the work does well is the observational campaign. Capturing a 19-hour transit requires careful coordination across space and ground facilities, and the team used NEOSSat along with LCOGT, MuSCAT, MuSCAT3, Tierras, and NGTS to get good coverage. The resulting timing constraint of 0.029 days uncertainty comes directly from the photometry and stands as an independent measurement.

The modeling uses the TRADES integrator to combine this with prior timings for planets d and e, then refines the ephemeris and makes predictions for future transits. This is a standard way to handle such data and produces updated schedules that observers can use.

The soft spots are in how the dynamical fit is presented. It assumes the observed timing variations arise only from the gravitational interactions among the three known transiting planets. No exploration is shown for whether an additional undetected planet could mimic the seven-hour offset, or how changes in the masses and eccentricities within or beyond current uncertainties might alter the conclusions. The abstract gives the main result but leaves the full fit details, such as convergence and prior choices, less visible.

This kind of paper is aimed at researchers who study this particular system or who need accurate transit predictions for long-period planets with TTVs. The new timing is a genuine addition to the literature. It deserves a serious referee because the core observational result is clear and the modeling is reproducible with published tools, even if the interpretation could benefit from more robustness checks. I recommend sending it to peer review.

Referee Report

1 major / 2 minor

Summary. The manuscript reports coordinated multi-site photometry capturing the 19-hour transit of the long-period giant exoplanet HIP 41378 f (P=542 d) on 31 October 2025. The analysis yields a precise time of inferior conjunction T_C = 2460980.888 ± 0.029 BJD_TDB, offset by ~7 hours from the linear ephemeris prediction. This offset is interpreted as a TTV, and the new timing is combined with prior data on planets d and e for N-body dynamical modeling using the TRADES integrator to refine ephemerides and predict future transits of the outer planets.

Significance. If the dynamical results hold, the work provides the first precise TTV measurement for a 542-day exoplanet—the longest-period body known to exhibit measurable TTVs—while demonstrating the feasibility of intensive photometric campaigns for such systems. Credit is due for the direct observational timing from multi-site photometry with stated uncertainty and for employing a published N-body code. The result would enable improved future transit predictions and constraints on the outer system architecture.

major comments (1)

[Dynamical modeling] Dynamical modeling section: The TRADES N-body fits assume that all observed TTVs arise solely from gravitational interactions among the three known transiting planets d, e, and f. No tests are presented for the possible contribution of an undetected fourth body or for degeneracies arising from masses and eccentricities outside the reported posteriors. This assumption is load-bearing for the refined ephemeris and future transit predictions.

minor comments (2)

[Abstract] Abstract: The planetary radius is stated as R = 9.5 R_⊕ without indicating whether this is an updated value from the present analysis or taken from prior literature.
[Methods] Methods: Additional details on photometric data reduction, transit model fitting, and TRADES run parameters (priors, convergence checks, chain lengths) would aid reproducibility, though the central timing measurement itself is directly reported with uncertainty.

Simulated Author's Rebuttal

1 responses · 0 unresolved

We thank the referee for their constructive feedback. We address the single major comment below.

read point-by-point responses

Referee: [Dynamical modeling] Dynamical modeling section: The TRADES N-body fits assume that all observed TTVs arise solely from gravitational interactions among the three known transiting planets d, e, and f. No tests are presented for the possible contribution of an undetected fourth body or for degeneracies arising from masses and eccentricities outside the reported posteriors. This assumption is load-bearing for the refined ephemeris and future transit predictions.

Authors: We agree that the assumption of three planets is central to the modeling and that explicit tests for additional bodies or parameter degeneracies would improve the robustness of the ephemeris predictions. The current TRADES fits are restricted to the three planets with measured transit times (d, e, f). In revision we will add a dedicated subsection that (1) runs supplementary N-body integrations that include a hypothetical fourth planet on a range of orbits and masses to quantify its possible contribution to the observed TTVs of f, and (2) examines the posterior distributions for masses and eccentricities outside the nominal 1-sigma ranges to identify any significant degeneracies. These additions will be presented with the revised manuscript. revision: yes

Circularity Check

0 steps flagged · score 0.0 of 10

No circularity: new timing datum is independent input to N-body fit

full rationale

The paper measures a new transit time T_C directly from photometry (NEOSSat, LCOGT, etc.) and reports it as an offset from the linear ephemeris. This observed value is then supplied as an additional constraint to the TRADES N-body integrator along with prior timings of planets d and e. The subsequent dynamical fit adjusts masses, eccentricities and epochs to reproduce the full set of observed TTVs; the output ephemeris and future predictions are therefore derived from the combined data set rather than being identical to any single input by construction. No self-definitional loop, fitted parameter renamed as prediction, or load-bearing self-citation is present in the derivation chain. The modeling assumption that only d/e/f contribute is a standard modeling choice, not a circular reduction.

Assumptions & free parameters 0 free parameters · 1 assumptions · 0 invented entities

The modeling step relies on standard N-body assumptions and previously published orbital elements for planets d and e; no new free parameters are explicitly introduced in the abstract beyond the new timing datum itself.

assumptions (1)

domain assumption The observed timing offset is produced by gravitational interactions among the three known planets only.
Invoked when combining the new timing with prior data on d and e to perform the TRADES integration.

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Cite this review

Pith. "Pith review of Observing a 542-day transiting giant with large TTVs: The 2025 transit of HIP 41378 f and new constraints on the outer system." pith.science (2026). https://pith.science/paper/2LVH3GC2

@misc{pith2026260623551,
  author       = {Pith},
  title        = {Pith review of: Observing a 542-day transiting giant with large TTVs: The 2025 transit of HIP 41378 f and new constraints on the outer system},
  year         = {2026},
  howpublished = {\url{https://pith.science/paper/2LVH3GC2}},
  note         = {Machine review of arXiv:2606.23551}
}

abstract

Characterizing long-period transiting exoplanets is inherently challenging due to the rarity and long duration of transit events. Yet, these systems provide unique insights into planetary formation, migration, the detection of exomoons, and primordial atmospheres by occupying a sparsely populated region of the exoplanet parameter space. The complexity increases further for long-period planets near mean-motion resonances, where transit timing variations (TTVs) can reach amplitudes of several hours to days. We present a coordinated space- and ground-based observing campaign, using photometry from NEOSSat, multiple LCOGT sites, MuSCAT, MuSCAT3, Tierras and NGTS, to capture the 19-hour transit of the long-period giant exoplanet HIP 41378 f ($P$ = 542 d, $R$ = 9.5 $R_{\oplus}$) on 31 October 2025. Our transit analysis constrains the time of inferior conjunction to $T_{\mathrm{C}} = 2460980.888 \pm 0.029~\mathrm{BJD_{TDB}}$, occurring $\sim 7$ hours earlier than predicted from its linear ephemeris. This significant offset is consistent with the previously reported TTVs of HIP 41378 f, making it the longest-period exoplanet known to exhibit measurable TTVs. By combining this new precise measurement to the transit timings of the two outer planets in the system (HIP 41378 d and HIP 41378 e), we perform a dynamical modeling of the system, using the N-body integrator TRADES, refine the ephemeris of HIP 41378 f, and predict future transit events for all three outer transiting planets.

Figures

Figures reproduced from arXiv: 2606.23551 by the authors.

**Figure 1.** Combined light-curves of the 2025 transit of HIP 41378 f. The data from all facilities are shown together, with unbinned measurements displayed as grey points and 25-minute binned data highlighted with colored markers for each instrument. The best-fit transit model, obtained from the joint analysis with PyORBIT, is overplotted as a black line. Residuals are shown in the lower panel. The top axis indicates the corre… view at source ↗

**Figure 2.** Posterior probability distributions for the transit parame [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p006_2.png] view at source ↗

**Figure 3.** Observed-minus-calculated (O−C) diagrams for HIP 41378 f for the compact configuration (a) and the extended configuration (b). The best-fit model (MAPHDI) is shown as a black curve, while the shaded regions represent the 1, 2, and 3σ posterior intervals . 1σ with the prediction of García-Mejía et al. (2025). The 2025 combined transit light curve of HIP 41378 f is shown in [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p007_3.png] view at source ↗

Figures from the paper (1 more)

**Figure 4.** Figure 4: Forward modeling of the O − C diagrams for the HIP 41378 outer triplet based on the MAPHDI solution. The top axis shows the calendar year of observation, while the bottom axis gives the time in BJDTDB. Black points represent the simulated individual transit times, and …

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