Paper Citation Record · LEDGER

When do prophets profit in prediction markets?

As of 31 July 2026, this Paper Citation Record lists 37 of 37 outbound references and 0 inbound Pith citation observations for arXiv:2607.06166.

A citation records a reference. It does not transfer a finding from one paper to another.

pith.paper-citation-record.v1
2607.06166 v2

Coverage vector

measured 37 of 37 reference resolution

Typed states for the displayed outbound observations.

Source: paper_references, paper_reference_links, observed 2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z

measured 37 of 37 standing notices

One-hop event checks from named stored sources.

Source: scholarly_work_events, retraction_status_cache, observed 2026-07-31T06:34:12.847434+00:00

measured 0 of 0 inbound itemization

Pith citing papers itemized under the disclosed page cap.

Source: paper_references, paper_reference_links

measured 0 of 1 external citation measurements

A source-named dated measurement, never combined with another source.

Source: cited_works

Reference resolution

37 of 37 outbound references displayed

verified exact0
verified fuzzy0
unresolved36
parse uncertain1
malformed identifier0
metadata mismatch0

External citation measurements

No source-named external measurement is stored.

Outbound references

Observation b9b98969-55a8-4cd2-8174-f365f488bacc · outbound

This paper cites Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences , volume =.

When do prophets profit in prediction markets? Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences , volume =

Reference 1

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation a1f9ee6c-5b64-4283-9d5c-effe1b2d56f7 · outbound

This paper cites Savage , journal =.

When do prophets profit in prediction markets? Savage , journal =

Reference 2

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 123a7445-38fd-4279-baed-bc26b7400f8b · outbound

This paper cites 2025 , eprint=.

When do prophets profit in prediction markets? 2025 , eprint=

Reference 3

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 03b85c95-2ed9-418f-b734-5a679abae2d3 · outbound

This paper cites Neural Information Processing Systems (NeurIPS 2025) Workshop: Generative AI in Finance , year=.

When do prophets profit in prediction markets? Neural Information Processing Systems (NeurIPS 2025) Workshop: Generative AI in Finance , year=

Reference 4

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 1f979cba-2de8-466e-853d-10081c290f82 · outbound

This paper cites the bell system technical journal , volume=.

When do prophets profit in prediction markets? the bell system technical journal , volume=

Reference 5

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 6f367820-93fe-43c3-b675-6319912f29ca · outbound

This paper cites Monthly Weather Review , volume=.

When do prophets profit in prediction markets? Monthly Weather Review , volume=

Reference 6

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 203babde-62b7-4267-8633-9c302f76a5bf · outbound

This paper cites Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Methodological) , volume=.

When do prophets profit in prediction markets? Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Methodological) , volume=

Reference 7

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation b01fd32d-0592-4d1e-a769-67c65fc6e614 · outbound

This paper cites Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Symposium on Information Theory , pages=.

When do prophets profit in prediction markets? Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Symposium on Information Theory , pages=

Reference 8

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation d57effac-d953-4637-a0e1-7f933ef04c22 · outbound

This paper cites Foundations of Statistical Inference , pages=.

When do prophets profit in prediction markets? Foundations of Statistical Inference , pages=

Reference 9

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 7d4b54ad-c0f1-4cb9-a2ee-796eb6495314 · outbound

This paper cites an unresolved cited work.

When do prophets profit in prediction markets? Unresolved cited work

Reference 10

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 31dfca8a-3d66-491a-97ab-96d5e3db102f · outbound

This paper cites Journal of the American statistical Association , volume=.

When do prophets profit in prediction markets? Journal of the American statistical Association , volume=

Reference 11

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation fcd790d9-57e1-4e5c-80de-106c907e30a5 · outbound

This paper cites Proceedings of the 9th ACM Conference on Electronic Commerce , pages=.

When do prophets profit in prediction markets? Proceedings of the 9th ACM Conference on Electronic Commerce , pages=

Reference 12

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 5cf99d47-4fc9-4b5b-bcb1-01b956267384 · outbound

This paper cites Proceedings of the 23rd ACM Conference on Economics and Computation , pages=.

When do prophets profit in prediction markets? Proceedings of the 23rd ACM Conference on Economics and Computation , pages=

Reference 13

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation cfc096b9-ea51-404c-880b-8843929f54ed · outbound

This paper cites Proceedings of the 11th ACM conference on Electronic commerce , pages=.

When do prophets profit in prediction markets? Proceedings of the 11th ACM conference on Electronic commerce , pages=

Reference 14

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 00e143dd-1e51-45d0-9b1e-677e4d44c109 · outbound

This paper cites Journal of economic perspectives , volume=.

When do prophets profit in prediction markets? Journal of economic perspectives , volume=

Reference 15

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 5ceceacf-be8b-4543-89b1-9add8ef06780 · outbound

This paper cites 2008 , publisher=.

When do prophets profit in prediction markets? 2008 , publisher=

Reference 16

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation b50ffb0c-f814-4c68-897b-738ec9653879 · outbound

This paper cites Proceedings of the 5th ACM Conference on Electronic Commerce (EC) , pages=.

When do prophets profit in prediction markets? Proceedings of the 5th ACM Conference on Electronic Commerce (EC) , pages=

Reference 17

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation b6bc8657-6fcf-43db-b981-4feb37b3e200 · outbound

This paper cites Journal of Prediction Markets , volume=.

When do prophets profit in prediction markets? Journal of Prediction Markets , volume=

Reference 18

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 18496a45-b4ad-4aab-bfe3-c4037ccb3e78 · outbound

This paper cites Proceedings of the 23rd Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI) , pages=.

When do prophets profit in prediction markets? Proceedings of the 23rd Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI) , pages=

Reference 19

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 4441f58e-42ab-4dc9-94e6-2993ca7e692f · outbound

This paper cites ACM Transactions on Economics and Computation (TEAC) , volume=.

When do prophets profit in prediction markets? ACM Transactions on Economics and Computation (TEAC) , volume=

Reference 20

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation c387598a-a440-4825-8903-cde099ba514e · outbound

This paper cites Proceedings of the 10th ACM conference on Electronic commerce , pages=.

When do prophets profit in prediction markets? Proceedings of the 10th ACM conference on Electronic commerce , pages=

Reference 21

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 46ea82c0-ef98-42d0-9749-e6a94984a4f0 · outbound

This paper cites Algorithmica , volume=.

When do prophets profit in prediction markets? Algorithmica , volume=

Reference 22

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation cf3dd059-aaf2-4a90-8873-325f4e3d122e · outbound

This paper cites Handbook of experimental economics results , volume=.

When do prophets profit in prediction markets? Handbook of experimental economics results , volume=

Reference 23

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation fec7c83e-8b99-4bf4-ac0d-039adadc13dc · outbound

This paper cites Public Opinion Quarterly , volume=.

When do prophets profit in prediction markets? Public Opinion Quarterly , volume=

Reference 24

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation fb22c7d0-c447-4202-9a7a-7816524bb481 · outbound

This paper cites Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems , volume=.

When do prophets profit in prediction markets? Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems , volume=

Reference 25

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation ff1fc6e8-5436-4b7b-8f53-8ded59b617ec · outbound

This paper cites Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems , volume=.

When do prophets profit in prediction markets? Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems , volume=

Reference 26

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation aab8705d-f9ac-4d06-9a60-2d7929cdd604 · outbound

This paper cites Stochastic optimization models in finance , pages=.

When do prophets profit in prediction markets? Stochastic optimization models in finance , pages=

Reference 27

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 0ef5531a-098a-41f3-86e0-ae067cb7182b · outbound

This paper cites 2011 , publisher=.

When do prophets profit in prediction markets? 2011 , publisher=

Reference 28

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 8b37a1ea-8992-4e0f-afff-c86eec966a74 · outbound

This paper cites Management Science , volume=.

When do prophets profit in prediction markets? Management Science , volume=

Reference 29

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 1bafdf1f-0ba5-4038-af0d-0f819a7f8aa4 · outbound

This paper cites Mathematical finance , volume=.

When do prophets profit in prediction markets? Mathematical finance , volume=

Reference 30

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation aef44825-335c-4b73-80cd-32fa8b79f387 · outbound

This paper cites Consistency Checks for Language Model Forecasters.

When do prophets profit in prediction markets? Consistency Checks for Language Model Forecasters

Reference 31

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 8705d8aa-95be-4b4b-b708-92919479757d · outbound

This paper cites American Economic Review , volume=.

When do prophets profit in prediction markets? American Economic Review , volume=

Reference 32

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 0a5750b2-d5f2-46c7-8cbc-4e9690bce924 · outbound

This paper cites International joint conference on artificial intelligence , volume=.

When do prophets profit in prediction markets? International joint conference on artificial intelligence , volume=

Reference 33

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation d12b0de3-a1f7-4948-ba51-3f2d7e32f446 · outbound

This paper cites Who Profits from Prediction Markets? Execution, not Information , publisher =.

When do prophets profit in prediction markets? Who Profits from Prediction Markets? Execution, not Information , publisher =

Reference 34

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 199c5d55-4019-42b4-b68c-9da8596ae635 · outbound

This paper cites The American Economic Review , volume=.

When do prophets profit in prediction markets? The American Economic Review , volume=

Reference 35

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 01e2815b-cd08-41fa-8613-1e73ccd15258 · outbound

This paper cites an unresolved cited work.

When do prophets profit in prediction markets? Unresolved cited work

Reference 36

Resolution: parse uncertain; no resolver link, observed 2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 2f74651e-d23e-450f-ac07-601e232c3ad5 · outbound

This paper cites Available at SSRN , year=.

When do prophets profit in prediction markets? Available at SSRN , year=

Reference 37

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-07-14T16:06:37.872997Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Pith citing papers

No inbound Pith citation observations are available.