REVIEW 4 major objections 6 minor 89 references
In FIRE-2 galaxies, star-formation ergodicity is only apparent
Reviewed by Pith at T0; open to challenge. T0 means a machine referee read the full paper against a public rubric. the ladder, T0–T4 →
T0 review · deepseek-v4-flash
2026-08-01 16:22 UTC pith:3FCTTASV
load-bearing objection Useful and honest paper: apparent TM-metric ergodicity in FIRE-2 SFMS deviations is really decreasing variance, but the block-scrambling control has a validation gap and one internal contradiction. the 4 major comments →
Ergodicity of FIRE: star formation variations within and between simulated galaxies
The pith
A machine-rendered reading of the paper's core claim, the machinery that carries it, and where it could break.
Core claim
The central discovery is that SFMS deviations in FIRE-2 galaxies display apparent, not true, ergodicity. By the TM metric, both short-timescale (10^7 yr) and some long-timescale (10^9 yr) deviations converge toward zero over roughly 10 Gyr, across three SFMS definitions and for disk- and spheroid-dominated morphologies. However, block-scrambling the time series removes the convergence, yielding TM metric exponents below unity. The authors attribute the apparent convergence to decreasing variance with time — the bursty-to-smooth transition and absence of late mergers — so the ensemble average is not constant in the strong sense required for ergodicity.
What carries the argument
The Thirumalai-Mountain (TM) metric, which measures the spread of individual time averages around the ensemble-averaged time average, is the main diagnostic. The paper uses its power-law convergence exponent to classify systems, and block-scrambling of the time series into 500 Myr or 1 Gyr blocks as a control; in a genuinely ergodic system, shuffling blocks should preserve convergence. SFMS deviations are the quantity tracked, defined relative to three main-sequence fits.
Load-bearing premise
The conclusion depends on block-scrambling being a valid way to expose non-ergodicity in short, nonstationary, heteroscedastic time series: if scrambling destroys TM-metric convergence for a process that is genuinely ergodic but has decreasing variance, the paper's distinction between apparent and true ergodicity would not be established.
What would settle it
Take a long, stationary, genuinely ergodic time series of the same length as the FIRE-2 SFMS deviations but engineered to have decreasing variance, block-scramble it, and measure the TM exponent: if scrambling pushes the exponent below unity, the block-scrambling test is a false positive for non-ergodicity. Alternatively, construct a synthetic galaxy population with constant variance in SFMS deviations and check whether TM convergence survives scrambling; survival would contradict the paper's variance-decrease explanation.
If this is right
- TM-metric convergence to zero alone is not sufficient to establish ergodicity of star-formation deviations; stationarity tests and temporal-scramble checks are needed.
- Observational estimates that treat a galaxy population's scatter about the main sequence as a proxy for individual galaxy variability may conflate ensemble spread with time variation.
- The bursty-to-smooth transition in massive galaxies is the likely cause of the apparent convergence, so samples dominated by massive, late-time disks will look artificially more ergodic.
- Short-timescale SFR indicators converge faster than long-timescale ones, so conclusions about ergodicity depend on the averaging window of the SFR tracer.
- For currently star-forming galaxies in FIRE-2, one cannot infer an individual galaxy's full star-formation history from the ensemble SFMS at a single epoch.
Where Pith is reading between the lines
- Because the sample is a z=0 disk-selected set with no AGN feedback, the apparent-ergodicity result may not extend to quenched systems or high-redshift populations; adding AGN feedback could turn apparent convergence into genuine non-ergodicity in massive galaxies.
- The paper leaves open the possibility that alternative ergodicity metrics — designed for nonstationary, finite-length series — could distinguish true from apparent ergodicity more cleanly than block-scrambling alone; a natural test is to apply such metrics to the same FIRE-2 time series.
- A direct observational analogue would be to reconstruct SFHs for a sample of local galaxies and apply the same TM-metric-plus-scrambling procedure; if observed data also lose convergence under scrambling, the FIRE-2 result is a generic property of galaxy SFHs rather than a simulation artifact.
Editorial analysis
A structured set of objections, weighed in public.
Referee Report
Summary. The paper uses 20 FIRE-2 zoom-in simulations to test whether deviations from the star-forming main sequence (SFMS) are ergodic, i.e. whether ensemble averages of galaxy SFMS deviations reproduce individual time-averaged histories. Three SFMS definitions are considered (Speagle et al. 2014, Popesso et al. 2023, and a fit to the simulated sample itself), together with short-timescale (~20 Myr) and long-timescale (800 Myr) SFR estimators. The central claim is that the SFMS-deviation time series display apparent ergodic convergence of the Thirumalai-Mountain (TM) metric at late cosmic times, but that this convergence is not true ergodicity: it is driven by decreasing variance accompanying the bursty-to-smooth transition, and block-scrambling the time series removes the convergence. The paper carefully restricts its claims to star-forming galaxies, repeats the analysis with external and sample-based SFMS definitions, and explores mass and morphology splits.
Significance. If the central claim is correct, the paper has a useful cautionary message for galaxy-evolution studies: apparent TM-metric convergence in SFMS deviations can be a nonstationarity artifact, not evidence that ensemble averages can be substituted for individual SFHs. The paper's strengths include the use of high-resolution FIRE-2 simulations, multiple SFMS definitions and SFR estimators, explicit treatment of morphology, cross-checks with archaeological SFHs, and an explicit toy-model demonstration (Section 3.3.1) that the TM metric alone cannot distinguish stationary from decreasing-variance processes. The final conclusion is appropriately hedged: the authors state that TM-metric convergence is necessary but not sufficient. However, the quantitative case for the stronger 'not truly ergodic' claim rests on a block-scrambling diagnostic whose validity for these short, nonstationary, unevenly sampled series is not demonstrated, and the current Table 2 contains an internal inconsistency with the text.
major comments (4)
- [Section 3.4, Table 2] The block-scrambling control is the main evidence for the claim that the observed convergence is only apparent. The paper cites Kelty-Stephen & Mangalam (2022) for the premise that block-scrambling preserves TM convergence for ergodic systems, but that premise is not established for the present regime: ~14 Gyr, N=20, heteroscedastic, nonstationary series with missing snapshots and visible edge effects (Figure 11). A concrete validation is needed, e.g. applying the same 500 Myr/1 Gyr block-scrambling to stationary ergodic surrogates and to the g(t)Y(t) amplitude-modulated process discussed in the text, with the same N and sampling pattern. Without this, the inference from 'scrambling suppresses convergence' to 'the original series is not ergodic' does not follow; a nonstationary but finite-sample ergodic process could in principle behave similarly. The internal consistency of the reported
- [Section 3.3.4, Eq. (7)] The fitted power-law exponents in Table 2 are presented as supporting the ergodic classification, but many have error bars so large that the classification is not meaningful. Examples include alpha(sSFR9)=5.25±17.14 for the Sample SFMS complete sample, alpha(sSFR7)=8.89±5.61 for the P23 high-mass group, and alpha(sSFR9)=1.31±5.30 for the P23 complete sample. The statement in Section 3.4 that block-scrambled TM metrics 'asymptotically approach a nonzero value' is also not supported by Eq. (7), in which alpha<1 corresponds to slower power-law decay toward zero, not a nonzero asymptote. Either fit a model with an explicit offset and report it, or revise the interpretation. The quantitative convergence claims should be revisited with bootstrap/confidence intervals and a clear statement of which alpha values are statistically distinguishable from the ergodic threshold of unity.
- [Section 2.5, Section 3.2, Table 2] The Sample SFMS is fitted to the same FIRE-2 snapshots whose deviations are subsequently analyzed, so the zero-mean property of the residuals is partly inherited from the fit rather than from galaxy physics. The authors mitigate this by repeating every analysis with the Speagle et al. (2014) and Popesso et al. (2023) SFMSs, and the central visual trends are indeed present for those external definitions. However, Table 2 shows that the Sample-SFMS fits produce extreme exponents (e.g. 8.36±2.53 and 13.80±8.57) that behave very differently from the external relations. The abstract's claim that apparent convergence is seen 'regardless of the SFMS definition adopted' should therefore be qualified with the caveat that the sample-constructed SFMS is not an independent test. This is not a fatal flaw, but the current wording overstates the uniformity across definitions.
- [Section 3.3.2, Figure 9] The number of galaxies contributing to the TM metric changes with time (rightmost column of Figure 9), especially at early epochs. Changes in Ngal and the associated changes in the ensemble mean can themselves produce artificial TM-metric evolution. The text acknowledges this qualitatively, but the main conclusion would be strengthened by a fixed-sample or completeness-corrected analysis, or by an explicit test of how much of the early-time TM behavior is driven by sample membership changes rather than by intrinsic SFMS-deviation dynamics.
minor comments (6)
- [Eq. (5), Eq. (6)] The notation for time averages and ensemble averages is introduced only verbally. Please define <...> and the overbar explicitly in Eq. (6), including the time dependence of Ngal.
- [Section 3.4, Table 2] Table 2 is titled 'Power law exponents derived from TM metric convergence fit', but Section 3.4 refers to 'convergence values'. Use the same terminology throughout to avoid confusing alpha with a terminal offset.
- [Section 3.1, Figure 1] The caption of Figure 1 says 'Error bars show the accepted scatter of 0.3 dex', but it is unclear whether the plotted error bars represent the observed scatter of FIRE-2 galaxies or the input scatter used in constructing the SFMS. Please clarify.
- [Section 2.3] The statement that archaeological SFHs are 'inherently smooth due to the high sampling rate' is confusing. A 1 Myr binning is fine, but smoothness is not guaranteed by sampling rate alone; clarify the smoothing or interpolation procedure.
- [References] The SciPy reference is incorrectly formatted: 'Nature Medicine, 17, 261' should be 'Nature Methods, 17, 261'.
- [Data Availability] The TM-metric and block-scrambling codes are said to be 'available from the author upon reasonable request'. Given the increasing reproducibility standards in astrostatistics, please deposit the analysis code in a public repository.
Circularity Check
Partial circularity from fitting the Sample SFMS to the same data whose SFMS deviations it defines; central claim is still independently supported by fixed observed SFMS fits.
specific steps
-
fitted input called prediction
[Section 2.5 (Eq. 2), Section 3.2 (Eqs. 3-4), Section 3.3 (Eq. 6)]
"By fitting our own SFMS, we create a fit that is more consistent with the simulation sample. ... these biases disappear when we consider our sample-constructed SFMS, as one would expect, since the SFMS considered is the zero-point reference for calculating ΔsSFR."
The Sample SFMS is a least-squares fit (Eq. 2) to the same FIRE-2 snapshots whose SFR/M* deviations (Eqs. 3-4) are then used to compute the TM metric (Eq. 6). Because the fit is the zero-point of those deviations, any systematic mean trend absorbed by the fitted parameters is removed from the residuals by construction, so part of the apparent TM convergence for the Sample-SFMS curves is inherited from the fitting step. This is not the whole story: the same qualitative convergence appears with the externally fixed Popesso et al. (2023) and Speagle et al. (2014) SFMSs, so the central claim does not reduce to the fit.
full rationale
The derivation chain is mostly self-contained. The TM metric (Eq. 5) and the α power-law classification are taken from external literature, not from the authors' prior work. The block-scrambling control is imported from Kelty-Stephen & Mangalam (2022), which is not a self-citation; whether it is valid for short, nonstationary, finite N=20 series is an external-validity/correctness concern, not circularity. The citation to Smith & Thacker (2024) is motivational and not load-bearing for the final 'decreasing variance prevents true ergodicity' claim, which rests on the paper's own toy model (Sec 3.3.1) and block-scrambling experiment. The only genuine by-construction element is the internally fitted Sample SFMS, which by definition serves as the zero-point of its own residuals; the paper explicitly notes that removing the temporal bias is expected for this definition. This partial circularity is bounded: all core conclusions are repeated with two externally fixed observed SFMSs and the abstract's 'regardless of SFMS definition' claim is thus independently supported. I also flag the internal inconsistency in Table 2 (Sample SFMS, 1 Gyr blocks, α_sSFR7 = 1.13±0.09, above the 'ergodic' threshold) as a robustness problem, but it is not a circular step. Overall: one partial non-central fit-related circularity; score 3.
Axiom & Free-Parameter Ledger
free parameters (2)
- Sample SFMS coefficients (a0, b0, a1, b1, b2) =
not reported in text (fit to all FIRE-2 snapshots)
- Bursty-to-smooth transition threshold (normalized moving standard deviation) =
0.3
axioms (5)
- domain assumption TM metric convergence to zero is a necessary indicator of ergodicity (Thirumalai et al. 1989).
- domain assumption For ergodic systems, block-scrambling the time series should preserve TM-metric convergence.
- domain assumption FIRE-2's subgrid model faithfully represents the physical processes governing SFMS variability and stellar mass assembly.
- domain assumption Deviations from the SFMS are a sufficient low-dimensional projection for the ergodicity question.
- domain assumption The time-varying, non-random galaxy sample can be treated as an ensemble for the TM metric.
read the original abstract
We investigate the ergodicity of star formation in simulated galaxies from the FIRE-2 (Feedback In Realistic Environments) project. We restrict ergodicity considerations to being related to deviations from the star-forming main sequence (SFMS), and in turn whether ensemble averages across populations match time-averaged star formation histories (SFHs) based on simulated observable properties. We find that in these high-resolution simulations the deviations of individual galaxies from the SFMS tend to approach ergodic behavior over time, regardless of the SFMS definition adopted and the star formation estimator used. This trend persists when galaxy morphology, as traced by S\'ersic index, is considered despite the spheroid-dominated morphologies showing a smaller range of SFMS deviations than the disk-dominated morphologies. Unsurprisingly, we find more rapid convergence to ergodic behavior for star formation estimators based on shorter time scales ($10^{7}$ years) as opposed to longer ($10^{9}$ years). We caution that these findings should be considered in the context of the current sample and that further studies, particularly of high redshift evolution and the impact of active galactic nuclei should be investigated.
Figures
Reference graph
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