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REVIEW 3 major objections 6 minor 112 references

GRS 1915+105's jets in its current obscured state are slower than its pre-2019 relativistic jets, with an inferred speed βΓ ≲ 0.40 rather than the earlier βΓ ≳ 1.

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2026-08-01 03:14 UTC pith:J3LYPUSI

load-bearing objection New EAVN proper-motion limits indicate the 2025 obscured-state jets of GRS 1915+105 are not moving at historical superluminal speeds; the quantitative βΓ<0.40 is model-dependent but plausible. the 3 major comments →

arxiv 2607.27688 v1 pith:J3LYPUSI submitted 2026-07-30 astro-ph.HE

Distinct Jet Properties in the X-Ray-Obscured State of GRS 1915+105

Xi Yan , Lang Cui , Sergei Trushkin , Shuangjing Xu , Wu Jiang , Zhen Yan , S\'andor Frey , Timur Mufakharov
show 1 more author
Ruchika Dhaka
This is my paper
classification astro-ph.HE
keywords X-ray binariesradio jetsGRS 1915+105very long baseline interferometryjet proper motionsuperluminal motionobscured stateblack hole accretion
verification ladder T0 review T1 audit T2 compute T3 formal T4 reserved

The pith

A machine-rendered reading of the paper's core claim, the machinery that carries it, and where it could break.

The paper claims that the black hole X-ray binary GRS 1915+105, now in an X-ray-obscured state since 2019, is launching jets that are markedly slower than the relativistic jets it produced before 2019. Using 6.7-GHz very long baseline interferometry during two radio flares in 2025, the authors resolved two contrasting morphologies: a bright core with extended jet emission in one epoch, and two symmetric, well-separated blobs with no detectable core in the other. They detect no significant jet motion over five-hour observations, which would have been clearly visible if the jets moved at the pre-2019 superluminal apparent speeds. From the slight asymmetry in the two-sided blob separations and the lack of motion, they derive an intrinsic jet speed βΓ ≲ 0.40. If correct, this supports the emerging paradigm that jets from obscured X-ray binaries propagate more slowly and with more variable orientation than those from unobscured systems.

Core claim

The paper reports that the jets of GRS 1915+105 observed in January 2025, during its X-ray-obscured state, do not show the apparent superluminal motion characteristic of its pre-2019 unobscured-state jets. For the epoch with two well-separated jet blobs, the measured separations from the inferred core give βcosθ = 0.11 ± 0.04, and the absence of proper motion limits the apparent speed to ≲0.39c; together these yield an intrinsic speed β ≲ 0.37, or βΓ ≲ 0.40. This is consistent with a previous measurement of βΓ = 0.37 for obscured-state ejecta in 2023, and it contrasts with the pre-2019 values of βΓ ~ 1–3. The paper argues that this change in jet speed, combined with the previously reported l

What carries the argument

The central constraint comes from the ratio of the angular separations of the approaching and receding jet components from the core, βcosθ = (Δr_app − Δr_rec)/(Δr_app + Δr_rec), under the assumption that the two-sided jets are ejected simultaneously and are intrinsically symmetric. This is combined with the upper limit on apparent proper motion (≲0.3 mas/h, or β_app ≲ 0.39) to bound the intrinsic speed and viewing angle in the β–θ plane, yielding βΓ ≲ 0.40. A second, independent check uses the jet-to-counterjet brightness ratio and spectral index, giving consistent values of βcosθ.

Load-bearing premise

The speed estimate for epoch B assumes the two-sided jets were launched simultaneously and symmetrically from a fixed core, and that the core position adopted from epoch A (seven days earlier) is the true launch point; if the core is actually offset or the ejecta asymmetric, the derived βΓ upper limit is biased.

What would settle it

A direct measurement of proper motion of the 2025 jet components at a level above ~0.3 mas/h would rule out the claimed stationary, slow jets; conversely, detecting the core in a similar obscured-state flare and remeasuring βcosθ with a directly measured core position would test whether the asymmetry used here is real or an artifact of the adopted core.

Watch this falsifier — get emailed when new claim-graph text bears on it.

If this is right

  • If confirmed, the 2025 jets are sub-relativistic, with speeds near 0.37c, distinct from the earlier relativistic jets with βΓ ≳ 1.
  • The absence of measurable proper motion over 5 hours rules out the pre-2019 apparent speeds (~22 mas/day) for these events, placing the jets in a slower kinematic class.
  • The two contrasting morphologies—core-plus-extended-jet versus two blobs with no core—may trace different phases of flare evolution, connecting radio spectral changes to jet structure.
  • These results add a second measured epoch (after 2023) to the obscured-state jet speed of GRS 1915+105, strengthening the claim that its post-2019 jets are systematically slower.

Where Pith is reading between the lines

These are editorial extensions of the paper, not claims the author makes directly.

  • The slow speeds and orientation variations together suggest the jets may be precessing and decelerating due to interaction with a dense, obscuring outflow; multi-epoch VLBI spanning months could directly track the precession period.
  • If the core position in epoch B is systematically offset (e.g., due to opacity shifts), the βcosθ = 0.11 estimate could shift; a future observation that resolves the core during an obscured-state flare would provide a direct check of the intrinsic symmetry assumption.
  • The derived speed ~0.3–0.4c is similar to the slower jets inferred in other obscured X-ray binaries, hinting at a common mass-loading or environmental deceleration mechanism that could be tested by comparing jet power and column density across sources.

Editorial analysis

A structured set of objections, weighed in public.

Desk editor's note, referee report, simulated authors' rebuttal, and a circularity audit.

Referee Report

3 major / 6 minor

Summary. The paper reports 6.7-GHz EAVN observations of the black hole X-ray binary GRS 1915+105 obtained during two radio flares in January 2025, while the source is in its post-2019 X-ray-obscured state. In epoch A the source shows a bright core with two-sided jet emission; in epoch B the core is not detected and the image is dominated by two bright, roughly symmetric blobs (SE2 and NW2). Time-binned imaging over the ~5-hour tracks yields no significant proper motion for any component, giving an apparent-speed upper limit of β_app ≲ 0.39. Using the separation asymmetry between the two blobs (βcosθ = 0.11 ± 0.04) and the flux-density ratio (βcosθ ≈ 0.07–0.10), the authors derive an intrinsic speed βΓ ≲ 0.40 for the epoch B jets. They compare this with pre-2019 measurements of βΓ ~ 1–3 and with the 2023 obscured-state value βΓ = 0.37, and interpret the result as evidence that jets in the obscured state are slower, and possibly precessing, in line with the Fender–Motta paradigm. The paper also discusses possible physical origins, including a warped, precessing disk and enhanced mass loading.

Significance. If the derived speed is correct, this is a valuable data point: it would show that the archetypal Galactic superluminal source, GRS 1915+105, has switched from relativistic (βΓ ≳ 1) to sub-relativistic (βΓ ≲ 0.40) jet propagation after entering its obscured state, directly supporting the emerging state-dependent jet paradigm. The proper-motion non-detection itself is robust and well presented: the authors correctly note that pre-2019 apparent speeds (~22 mas/d) would produce a ~5 mas shift over 5 hours, well above their ~1.5 mas detection threshold, while the observed residuals are consistent with zero. The paper is also commendable for its rapid-response ToO observations, the use of calibrator light curves to verify that the flux variability is intrinsic, and the transparency of the equations used. The quantitative speed limit, however, depends critically on the assumption that the two epoch-B blobs are intrinsically symmetric, simultaneous ejections from a stationary core at the position extrapolated from epoch A. That assumption is stated but its violation is not discussed or propagated, and the abstract's phrase 'robust support' overstates the strength of the kinematic inferenc

major comments (3)
  1. [§3.3, Eqs. (1) and (2)] Both estimators of βcosθ assume the two epoch-B blobs are intrinsically symmetric and were ejected simultaneously from a common core. If the counterjet is intrinsically fainter or if one blob is actually the core (or a separate ejection), then Eq. (1) does not measure a kinematic asymmetry and Eq. (2) is biased by the unknown intrinsic flux ratio. The paper states the assumption but provides no test or systematic-uncertainty estimate. Because this assumption is the link between the proper-motion null result and the quantitative claim βΓ ≲ 0.40, the conclusion is not as robust as the abstract implies. A concrete test would be to compare the epoch-B morphology with the epoch-A core position and the 2023 symmetric-ejection events, or to fit a model that relaxes the symmetry and show how βcosθ changes.
  2. [§3.2, 'For epoch B, where the core is not directly detected...'] The epoch-B core position is inferred from epoch A, taken seven days earlier. Any opacity-driven core shift or physical displacement of the launch site between epochs, or a position error in the epoch-A core, directly biases the measured separations Δr_app and Δr_rec used in Eq. (1). A shift of the adopted core along the jet axis changes the two separations in opposite directions and therefore produces a spurious βcosθ. The resulting systematic error is not propagated into the quoted βΓ ≲ 0.40. The authors should estimate the plausible core-shift magnitude (e.g., from the beam size and the epoch-A fit uncertainty) and show the range of βcosθ that results.
  3. [§4.1, 'Evidence for Slower Jets'] The comparison with pre-2019 jets and the statement that post-2019 jets are 'slower' rests on the quantitative βΓ ≲ 0.40, which is conditional on the symmetry assumption. The proper-motion non-detection alone robustly excludes apparent speeds of ~22 mas/d, but a fast on-axis jet (β ≳ 0.9 within θ ≈ 2–3°) would also produce β_app ≲ 0.39 mas/h and would evade the proper-motion limit while still having βΓ ≳ 1. The discussion should acknowledge this degenerate possibility explicitly and separate the robust null result from the model-dependent speed inference.
minor comments (6)
  1. [Abstract and §5] The phrase 'robust support' in the abstract is too strong given the symmetry assumption. Suggest 'consistent with' or 'provide further support'.
  2. [§3.2] The choice of one quarter of the beam major axis (q = 0.25) as the detectability threshold is reasonable but arbitrary. A brief justification or a test with different q values (e.g., 0.2–0.5) would strengthen the upper limit.
  3. [Table 1] The table lists βΓ ≲ 0.40 for both epoch A and epoch B, but the text notes that the epoch A value is tentative (βcosθ = 0.09 ± 0.12). The table could mark this clearly or include the uncertainty.
  4. [§3.3, Eq. (2)] The k = 2 vs k = 3 choice is discussed with literature values, but the final βcosθ range (0.07–0.10) does not show how the uncertainty in k propagates. A one-line sensitivity statement would be helpful.
  5. [Figure 5] The axes are clear, but the shaded 'allowed parameter space' is only bounded by the two curves; a small label indicating that the right boundary is set by β_app < 0.39 would improve readability.
  6. [General] The paper repeatedly refers to Y26 for details of the data reduction and component fitting. While acceptable, the reader would benefit from a summary of the fit uncertainties and the epoch-A core position error, since those are central to the epoch-B analysis.

Circularity Check

0 steps flagged

No significant circularity: the 2025 jet-speed limit follows from a new kinematic analysis, with only minor reliance on the authors' earlier Y26 component model.

full rationale

The claimed result βΓ≲0.40 is not equivalent to any input by construction. The proper-motion upper limit (§3.2) is derived from independent time-binned model fits (β_app≲0.39); the βcosθ values come from two distinct observables in epoch B, separation asymmetry (Eq. 1: Δr_app=7.8±0.4, Δr_rec=6.2±0.4 -> 0.11±0.04) and flux-density ratio (Eq. 2: R_B=1.6±0.4, α=-0.98 -> 0.07–0.10). Both explicitly assume intrinsically symmetric, simultaneous twin ejecta; this is a standard physical ansatz, not a tautology. Combining βcosθ with β_app via Eq. (5) gives βΓ≲0.40, and the comparison to pre-2019 βΓ≳1 uses external literature values. The only self-citation of note is Y26, which supplies the Gaussian-component separations/flux densities for the same 2025 epochs; Y26 is a companion data paper and does not contain the speed conclusion, so the kinematic argument is new. The paper itself flags a genuine systematic risk in §3.2: no core is detected in epoch B and the core position is adopted from epoch A, so βcosθ carries an unquantified core-position uncertainty. This is model dependence, not circularity. No equation reduces to its own input and no fitted parameter is relabeled as a prediction.

Axiom & Free-Parameter Ledger

3 free parameters · 5 axioms · 0 invented entities

No new physical entities are introduced. The core result rests on standard observational assumptions, but two choices deserve attention: the epoch-B core position (taken from epoch A) and the quarter-beam detection threshold. Neither is propagated into the systematic error budget.

free parameters (3)
  • Detection threshold factor q (fraction of beam major axis) = 0.25
    Assumed in Section 3.2 as 'one quarter of the major-axis size' to define the detectable proper-motion limit. This sets β_app < 0.39; if q were 0.125 or 0.5, the upper limit would change.
  • Power-law index k in flux-ratio method = 1.3–2.5
    Used in Eq. 2 to convert brightness ratio into βcosθ; range taken from earlier literature (Mirabel & Rodríguez 1994; Fender et al. 1999; Miller-Jones et al. 2005). Varied rather than fitted.
  • Adopted epoch-B core position = Taken from epoch A (Y26)
    Not measured in epoch B; directly sets Δr_app and Δr_rec in Eq. 1. A systematic shift of this position would bias βcosθ.
axioms (5)
  • domain assumption Intrinsic symmetry and simultaneous ejection of the twin jets (Eqs. 1 and 2)
    Required to convert separation asymmetry and brightness ratio into βcosθ. Partially supported by near-symmetric 2023 ejecta (Rodríguez & Mirabel 2025; Jiang et al. 2026), but not directly verified for the 2025 blobs.
  • domain assumption Ballistic, non-accelerating jet propagation over the 5-hour observing window
    Implicit in interpreting the proper-motion upper limit as a constant apparent speed and in comparing with historical speeds.
  • domain assumption Distance d = 9.4 ± 1.0 kpc (Reid & Miller-Jones 2023)
    Used to convert proper motions and angular separations into physical speeds; taken from prior literature, not fitted here.
  • ad hoc to paper The core is stationary and located at the epoch-A position when extrapolated to epoch B
    Adopted in Section 3.2 because no core is detected in epoch B; no independent constraint on its true location is given.
  • standard math Standard VLBI imaging and self-calibration produce unbiased component positions
    Positions and fluxes come from DIFMAP Gaussian fits after AIPS calibration; standard practice in radio interferometry.

pith-pipeline@v1.3.0-daily-deepseek · 13077 in / 15185 out tokens · 130447 ms · 2026-08-01T03:14:33.147740+00:00 · methodology

0 comments
read the original abstract

GRS 1915+105 has remained in an X-ray-obscured state since its transition from a long-lasting unobscured state in 2019. We report on 6.7-GHz East Asia VLBI Network observations of GRS 1915+105 obtained during strong radio flares detected at 2.3--11.2 GHz with the RATAN-600 radio telescope in 2025. Our images reveal two contrasting jet morphologies. The first epoch, associated with a flare evolving from an optically thick to an optically thin spectrum, shows a bright radio core accompanied by an extended jet structure. By contrast, the second epoch, observed near the peak of another flare displaying optically thin emission at lower frequencies, is dominated by two bright, symmetric, well-separated jet blobs and shows no detectable radio core. If these jets exhibited the apparent superluminal motions commonly observed prior to 2019, measurable angular shifts would be expected over the five-hour observations. However, no significant jet motion is detected. Combined with our derived jet speed of $\beta\Gamma \lesssim 0.40$, these results suggest that the jets launched during the current obscured state are slower than the relativistic jets ($\beta\Gamma \gtrsim 1$) observed earlier during the unobscured state. Together with the recently reported large variations in jet orientation, our findings in GRS 1915+105 provide robust support for the emerging paradigm that X-ray binary jets launched in obscured and unobscured states likely exhibit distinct propagation properties.

Figures

Figures reproduced from arXiv: 2607.27688 by Lang Cui, Ruchika Dhaka, S\'andor Frey, Sergei Trushkin, Shuangjing Xu, Timur Mufakharov, Wu Jiang, Xi Yan, Zhen Yan.

Figure 1
Figure 1. Figure 1: Top panel: radio light curves of GRS 1915+105 from January to February 2025, observed with RATAN at 2.3, 4.7, 8.2, and 11.2 GHz. The gray shaded regions indicate three major radio flares, occurring at MJD 60690.4±1 (Flare I), 60700.0±1 (Flare II), and 60711.3 ± 1 (Flare III). The EAVN observing epochs (epoch A at MJD 60693.1 and epoch B at MJD 60700.2) are marked on the top axis. Bottom panels: radio spect… view at source ↗
Figure 2
Figure 2. Figure 2: Top: EAVN 6.7-GHz images of GRS 1915+105 obtained in 2025. Contours start at 2.7 mJy beam−1 (epoch A) and 0.9 mJy beam−1 (epoch B), and increase by successive factors of 2. Negative contours are shown with dashed lines. The elliptical Gaussian synthesized beam sizes (half-power widths) are 5.50 mas×2.60 mas at major axis position angle of PA = −14. ◦ 3 (epoch A) and 5.87 mas × 2.87 mas at PA = −24. ◦ 3 (ep… view at source ↗
Figure 3
Figure 3. Figure 3: Left: time-binned EAVN 6.7-GHz images of GRS 1915+105 from epoch A, observed on 2025 January 18 (MJD 60693). All images are restored with a common synthesized beam of 5.82 mas × 2.64 mas at PA = −14◦ and rotated clockwise by 30◦ to facilitate comparison. Contours start at 0.005 Jy beam−1 and increase by successive factors of 2. The magenta circles indicate the positions and sizes of the fitted Gaussian com… view at source ↗
Figure 4
Figure 4. Figure 4: Left: time-binned EAVN 6.7-GHz images of GRS 1915+105 from epoch B, observed on 2025 January 25 (MJD 60700). All images are restored with a common synthesized beam of 6.24 mas × 3.07 mas at PA = −31◦ and rotated clockwise by 40◦ to facilitate comparison. Contours start at 0.003 Jy beam−1 and increase by successive factors of 2. The magenta circles indicate the positions and sizes of the fitted Gaussian com… view at source ↗
Figure 5
Figure 5. Figure 5: The intrinsic jet speed (β) as a function of view￾ing angle (θ). The red curve corresponds to the constraint β cos θ = 0.11 ± 0.04, with the dashed curves indicating the 1σ uncertainty. The blue curve shows the upper limit on the intrinsic jet speed derived from the constraint βapp ≲ 0.39. The allowed parameter space is bounded by these two con￾straints and is represented by the shaded region. 1994; R. P. … view at source ↗
Figure 6
Figure 6. Figure 6: Jet speed of GRS 1915+105 as a function of time. All values are calculated based on a source distance of 9.4±1.0 kpc (see Section 4.1). The magenta points represent measurements from W. Jiang et al. (2026) and this work (see [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p008_6.png] view at source ↗

discussion (0)

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Reference graph

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