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The TASSIE Program. II: Three Close-In Companions Orbiting Sun-Like Stars

T0 review · 2 major / 6 minor · reviewed 2026-08-08 · deepseek-v4-flash

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Pith's one-line read This paper confirms two of three TESS giant-planet candidates as true hot giants — a typical hot Jupiter and an inflated Saturn-mass planet — and leaves the third as a likely young-star companion awaiting mass measurement.

desk verdict TOI-3053b is secure, but the TOI-3278b mass rests on clipped FEROS RVs with jitter exceeding the signal; require an un-clipped fit before trusting it. read the letter →

arxiv 2608.05500 v1 pith:WYHFXD3M submitted 2026-08-06 astro-ph.EP

T. Plunkett , E. Thygesen , A. A. Cole , J. Schulte , J. E. Rodriguez , B. Emptage , J. P. Beaulieu , G. Bakos
show 11 more authors
J. Hartman C. Ziegler K. A. Collins Z. Csubry K. Penev A. Jordán R. Brahm L. Mancini T. Henning D. J. Radford P. Evans
This is my paper · ORCID
classification astro-ph.EP
keywords exoplanetshotJupiterstransitingplanetsradialvelocitiesTESSfollow-upplanetvalidationradiusinflationG-dwarfstars
verification ladder T0 review T1 audit T2 compute T3 formal

The pith

A machine-rendered reading of the paper's core claim, the machinery that carries it, and where it could break.

The reading

This paper reports ground-based follow-up of three TESS giant-planet candidates around G-dwarf stars and claims that two are genuine planets. TOI-3053b is a typical hot Jupiter with about 0.85 Jupiter masses in a 2.99-day orbit, and TOI-3278b/HATS-78b is a low-density Saturn-mass planet of about 0.30 Jupiter masses in a 3.25-day orbit. The third candidate, TOI-3272.01, is consistent with a hot Jupiter but is not confirmed. The paper argues that the combined evidence — multi-band transit depths, imaging, astrometry, statistical vetting, and radial velocities — excludes the main false-positive scenarios for the two confirmed systems. If correct, the work adds two well-characterised close-in giants to the growing TESS sample that can test migration pathways and radius inflation.

What carries the argument

The analysis is carried by a joint photometric and radial-velocity model built in the Juliet code (Espinoza et al., 2019), which couples the BATMAN transit model to the RadVel Keplerian model and explores the parameter space with nested sampling. Gaussian-process kernels absorb correlated noise — a quasi-periodic kernel for the active star TOI-3272 and Matérn 3/2 kernels elsewhere — while the transit shape fixes the radius ratio and the RV semi-amplitude fixes the planet mass. Around this core sits a validation chain: TRICERATOPS false-positive probabilities (Giacalone et al., 2021), achromatic transit-depth comparisons across filters, Gaia DR3 RUWE astrometry, archival photographic plates, and (for TOI-3053) SOAR speckle imaging. The combination is what lets the paper move from transiting candidate to confirmed planet with a mass.

What would settle it

Obtain or re-fit the full set of 34 FEROS radial velocities for TOI-3278 (including the 10 rejected points) with the same circular-orbit model; if the semi-amplitude K departs significantly from 40.1 ± 8.5 m/s, the claimed mass of 0.30 ± 0.07 $M_J$ would not survive. Alternatively, a single additional season of high-precision RVs from HARPS or an equivalent spectrograph would settle whether the 3.25-day Keplerian is real at that amplitude.

Watch

Extended reading notes

Core claim

On the paper's own terms, the central discovery is the confirmation and mass characterisation of two transiting hot giant planets orbiting thin-disk G dwarfs of roughly solar metallicity. TOI-3053b has radius 1.21±0.03 $R_J$, mass 0.85±0.12 $M_J$ and bulk density 0.64±0.10 g cm$^{-3}$; TOI-3278b/HATS-78b has radius 1.24±0.04 $R_J$, mass 0.30±0.07 $M_J$ and density 0.21±0.05 g cm$^{-3}$, making it an inflated Saturn-mass object. The paper further argues that both planets appear inflated relative to the Thorngren et al. (2019) mass–radius relation, and that TOI-3272.01 is consistent with a hot Jupiter but lacks a mass measurement. These are presented as additions to the census of close-in giants from TESS, relevant to migration mechanisms and radius-inflation models.

Load-bearing premise

The mass of TOI-3278b depends on the assumption that the 10 FEROS radial velocities rejected as outliers were not taken near the orbital velocity maxima or minima; if they were, the fitted semi-amplitude of 40.1 m/s and the derived 0.30 Jupiter-mass planet would be biased.

Editorial extensions

If this is right

  • Two more hot giants with secure masses and densities enter the mass–radius diagram, tightening the empirical constraints on how much irradiation inflates close-in giant planets.
  • TOI-3278b's density of 0.21 g cm$^{-3}$ makes it a strong case study for radius-inflation mechanisms, and its old host star (about 8.9 Gyr) suggests it may be re-inflating as the star nears the end of its main-sequence lifetime.
  • If TOI-3272.01 is confirmed, it would be a hot Jupiter around a 1.1 Gyr old star — precisely the young population needed to study giant-planet evolution over the first billion years.
  • The paper's calculation that these targets fall below the TSM threshold for JWST or Ariel transmission spectroscopy implies such observations would be challenging unless masses sit at the lower ends of their error ranges.
  • The systems support the TESS follow-up pipeline for the faint (V > 13) and distant hosts that upcoming missions like the Roman Galactic Bulge Time Domain Survey will find.

Reading between the lines

Editorial extensions of the paper, not claims the author makes directly.

  • A useful check the paper does not perform would be a blinded re-fit of the TOI-3278 RVs with all 34 FEROS points included; until either that is done or new RVs arrive, the mass of TOI-3278b should carry the flagged uncertainty about the 10 rejected outliers.
  • The same joint-modelling pipeline could be applied to the unconfirmed TOI-3272.01 once youth indicators (Li, Ca H&K) are checked; a young-star classification would make the 1.15 $R_J$ radius particularly interesting for inflation models, since young giants are expected to be inflated.
  • The achromatic depth test for TOI-3272.01 was ambiguous, and the paper's own suggestion of a youth spectrum is essentially a test of whether spot modulation is altering the transit depth — an observation that could be carried out with a single high-SNR spectrum.
  • The heavy reliance on TGLC re-extractions for faint targets implies that some published TESS transit depths for similar stars may carry pipeline-dependent biases; systematic re-analysis of faint TOIs would be a natural extension.
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Editorial analysis

A structured set of objections, weighed in public.

Desk editor's note, referee report, and a circularity audit.

Referee Report

2 major / 6 minor

Summary. This paper presents ground- and space-based follow-up of three TESS hot-giant-planet candidates (TOI-3053.01, TOI-3272.01, and TOI-3278.01/HATS-78). Using TESS and UTGO/H50 photometry, reconnaissance and high-resolution spectroscopy, speckle imaging, and Juliet joint modelling of light curves and radial velocities, the authors confirm two of the candidates as planets: TOI-3053b, a hot Jupiter with M=0.85±0.12 MJ, R=1.21±0.03 RJ, and TOI-3278b/HATS-78b, an inflated Saturn-mass planet with M=0.30±0.07 MJ, R=1.24±0.04 RJ. The third candidate, TOI-3272.01, remains unconfirmed. The paper also derives stellar parameters, ages, and discusses the systems in the context of the short-period giant planet population and radius inflation.

Significance. If the results hold, the paper delivers two well-characterised additions to the short-period giant planet sample, including a low-density Saturn-mass planet (TOI-3278b) around a star near the end of its main-sequence lifetime, which is potentially relevant for radius-inflation studies. The analysis uses standard, widely tested tools (Juliet, ARIADNE, TRICERATOPS, MIST), reports per-instrument parameters and posteriors, and provides a public repository for the modelling notebooks. The vetting is generally careful: the blended 0.416-day eclipsing binary near TOI-3053 is identified and modelled with a GP, and the chromaticity and statistical false-positive tests are appropriate. The main weakness is the undocumented rejection of 10 of 34 FEROS radial velocities for TOI-3278, on which the planet mass determination rests; this makes the confirmation of TOI-3278b currently less secure than the text claims.

major comments (2)
  1. [§2.4.2, Table A2, §4.2.3] The 5-sigma outlier rejection of FEROS RVs is not reproducible or adequately justified. The text states that 10 of 34 measurements were rejected as 5-sigma outliers, but it does not specify the reference model (e.g., a constant velocity, a preliminary Keplerian, or an iterative clip of residuals), the number of iterations, or the values of the rejected points. Table A2 lists only the 24 retained FEROS measurements. The global fit in §4.2.3 then yields K=40.1±8.5 m/s with a fitted FEROS jitter of 46.5±7.45 m/s, so the jitter exceeds the Keplerian amplitude. Iterative sigma-clipping around a trial model can preferentially remove points at the velocity extrema (suppressing a real K) or remove noise-driven extremes (creating a spurious K). Since the quoted mass M=0.30±0.07 MJ is derived directly from this K, the confirmation of TOI-3278b is not secure unless the authors provide the full 34-point RV dataset, the exact rejection algorithm, and a fit to all 34 points (or a robust likelihood) demonstrating that K is stable under this choice.
  2. [§2.1.3, §4.2.3] The exclusion of TESS Sector 13 from the TOI-3278 modelling is not quantitatively justified. The text says the noise/systematics were 'too severe to provide meaningful information about the transit', but no diagnostic, fit with Sector 13 included, or comparison of derived parameters is shown. This data selection could in principle affect the transit depth, ephemeris, and hence the radius and density of TOI-3278b. Please present a fit that includes Sector 13 with an appropriate detrending model, or show explicitly that its inclusion leaves the reported parameters unchanged within uncertainties.
minor comments (6)
  1. [§2.1.2 vs §4.2.2] The text says TOI-3272 was observed by TESS in Sectors 11, 12, 13, 27, 38, 39, 65, 66, 67, 93 and 94, but §4.2.2 lists the modelled sectors as 27, 38, 39, 65, 66, 67, 93, 94 and 95; the discrepancy (Sectors 11, 12, 13 omitted and Sector 95 added) should be clarified.
  2. [§4.2.2, Table 5] The period of TOI-3272.01 is quoted as 'P3053b = 3.1466961 ± 0.0000057 days'; the subscript should refer to TOI-3272.01, not TOI-3053b.
  3. [§5.1] There is a typo in 'the inferred age of TOI-3278 implies that is is close to the end of its main-sequence lifetime'; 'is is' should be 'it is'.
  4. [§2.2.1] The FLOYDS spectra for TOI-3278 have R≈500 and a useful wavelength range limited to the visible; the statement that this rules out double-lined binaries should be qualified, since such low resolution and limited wavelength coverage can miss companions with small RV separations.
  5. [Table 3] The 'This work' entries in the 'Source' column are inconsistent in capitalization (e.g., 'This Work' in the Age row); unify the formatting.
  6. [§4.2.3] The HARPS dataset consists of only 3 RVs with a median uncertainty of 27 m/s; the paper should state explicitly that these points alone cannot independently constrain the orbital amplitude and that the mass determination relies on the FEROS data, which is already the case in the text but would be clearer in Section 4.2.3.

Circularity Check

0 steps flagged · score 0.0 of 10

No significant circularity: this is an observational characterization paper whose planet masses, radii, and densities are derived from independent RV and transit data plus external stellar models.

full rationale

The central claims of the paper are empirical characterizations, not theory-derived predictions that reduce to their own inputs. Planet radii come from TESS and ground-based transit photometry modeled with Juliet; planet masses come from independent CHIRON and FEROS/HARPS radial velocities; stellar parameters come from SED fitting with external model grids and MIST isochrones. The radius and mass are combined to give densities, and the inflation comparison is made against an external mass-radius relation (Thorngren et al. 2019). The stellar density prior used in the transit fit (Table A3) is derived from the independently fitted stellar parameters, which is standard practice and does not constitute circularity because the stellar parameters are not derived from the transit fit. The paper cites prior work by the same team (Plunkett et al. 2025) for target selection, but that citation is not load-bearing for the confirmation of the planets or for the quoted masses and radii. The FEROS 5-sigma clipping described in Section 2.4.2 is a data-selection and robustness concern: without the rejected RVs or an unclipped fit, the derived K = 40.1 +/- 8.5 m/s and the resulting mass could be biased. That concern, however, is not circularity under the definitions used here, because the mass is still an empirical fit to the retained data and is not equal to an input by construction. The paper also explicitly and repeatedly states its limitations, including that TOI-3272.01 remains unconfirmed and requires high-precision RVs, and that TRICERATOPS cannot statistically validate giant planets alone. I find no step in the derivation chain that is equivalent to its input by definition, no fitted parameter renamed as a prediction, and no load-bearing self-citation chain. Therefore the appropriate circularity score is 0.

Assumptions & free parameters 5 free parameters · 7 assumptions · 0 invented entities

The paper does not introduce new theoretical entities or ad hoc physics. Its central claims rest on standard astrophysical calibrations (stellar models, gyrochronology) and on the assumption that data cleaning choices (sector selection, 5-sigma RV rejection) do not bias the results. The most significant free parameters are the fitted RV jitter for TOI-3278 and the GP parameters used to remove the blended eclipsing binary signal in TOI-3053.

free parameters (5)
  • Rotation period of TOI-3272 (P_rot) = 13.44 ± 0.46 days
    Adopted from Gaussian Process fit to TESS light curves; the periodogram shows competing peaks at 6.9 and 13.9 d, and the choice affects the gyrochronological age (Section 3.4).
  • RV jitter for FEROS (J_FEROS) = 46.5 m/s
    Fitted in the Juliet RV model for TOI-3278b; large relative to K=40.1 m/s, indicating substantial unmodeled scatter (Table 5, Section 4.2.3).
  • Dilution factors for TOI-3272 ground-based light curves = 0.95-0.96
    Fitted to account for a close non-companion star; affects transit depth and hence radius ratio (Table 5, Sections 4.2.2, A3).
  • GP rotation period for TOI-3053 (QPK kernel) = 0.4166 days
    Set to the blended EB period and used to remove the contaminating EB signal from the TESS photometry; if inaccurate, the transit depth could be biased (Sections 2.1.1, 4.2.1, Table A4).
  • Limb darkening coefficients (q1, q2) per instrument = Various (Table 5)
    Fitted with ExoCTK-based normal priors; standard practice but they absorb some photometric systematics.
assumptions (7)
  • domain assumption Gaia DR3 astrometry and photometry provide unbiased stellar distances, radii, and extinction constraints.
    Used for SED fitting and kinematic analysis (Sections 3.1-3.3).
  • domain assumption MIST isochrones and stellar atmosphere model grids (Phoenix, Kurucz, ATLAS9, BT-Settl) can be interpolated to derive accurate stellar masses, radii, and ages.
    Used to infer stellar parameters and ages (Sections 3.1-3.2, A2).
  • domain assumption The Mamajek & Hillenbrand (2008) gyrochronology relation maps rotation period and colour to stellar age for TOI-3272.
    Age estimate of 1.1±0.2 Gyr rests on this calibration (Section 3.4).
  • domain assumption The TESS light curves (QLP and TGLC extractions) are sufficiently de-blended and calibrated for transit fitting.
    TGLC is used for TOI-3272 and TOI-3278; QLP for TOI-3053 (Sections 2.1, 4.2).
  • ad hoc to paper The 0.416-day periodic signal in the TOI-3053 light curve is a nearby blended eclipsing binary that can be modelled with a quasi-periodic GP without affecting the 2.99-day transit.
    The GP absorbs the EB signal; the deblending assumption is specific to this analysis (Sections 2.1.1, 4.2.1).
  • domain assumption Radial velocity variations are dominated by the orbital motion of a bound companion, not by stellar activity or systematic errors.
    RV model interprets K as a Keplerian signal; activity checks were only partially performed (Section 4.2).
  • ad hoc to paper The FEROS 5-sigma outlier rejection did not remove points that carry the orbital signal.
    10 of 34 RVs were discarded; the paper does not show the rejected values or a model including them (Section 2.4.2).

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Cite this review

Pith. "Pith review of The TASSIE Program. II: Three Close-In Companions Orbiting Sun-Like Stars." pith.science (2026). https://pith.science/paper/WYHFXD3M

@misc{pith2026260805500,
  author       = {Pith},
  title        = {Pith review of: The TASSIE Program. II: Three Close-In Companions Orbiting Sun-Like Stars},
  year         = {2026},
  howpublished = {\url{https://pith.science/paper/WYHFXD3M}},
  note         = {Machine review of arXiv:2608.05500}
}
abstract

We present three southern transiting giant planet candidates alerted by the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) mission and investigated at the University of Tasmania Greenhill Observatory (UTGO). The candidate planets are orbiting thin disk G-dwarf main-sequence stars with roughly solar metallicity, possessing orbital periods between 2.9 - 3.3 days and radii of 1.1 - 1.3 $R_{J}$. We performed ground-based follow-up photometry primarily with the UTGO Harlingten 50 cm, then gathered reconnaissance spectra, high angular resolution imaging and high-precision radial velocities to rule out false positive scenarios. We confirmed that two of these systems host true exoplanets and constrained their masses. TOI-3053b is a typical hot Jupiter, with $M_{3053b} = 0.85 \pm 0.12$ M$_{J}$ and a bulk density of $\rho_{3053b} = 0.64 \pm 0.10$ g cm$^{-3}$. TOI-3278b / HATS-78b is a hot Saturn-mass planet ($M_{3278b} = 0.30 \pm 0.07$ $M_{J}$) with a highly inflated atmosphere and a low density of $\rho_{3278b} = 0.21 \pm 0.05$ g cm$^{-3}$. The other candidate (TOI-3272.01) remains unconfirmed, but appears consistent with being a hot Jupiter. TOI-3272.01 is notable as a candidate planet orbiting a potentially young to intermediate age star, with a rotational analysis indicating an age estimate of $T_{3272} = 1.1 \pm 0.2$ Gyr. These systems add to a growing sample of hot giant planets from TESS that may provide constraints on the migration pathways and radius inflation of the broader close-in exoplanet population.

Figures

Figures reproduced from arXiv: 2608.05500 by the authors.

Figure 1
Figure 1. Contrast curve and high-resolution reconstructed autocorrelation function image for TIC269859655 (TOI-3053) from the SOAR telescope with the I filter. observations with exposure times of 3600 seconds and brack￾eted by Th-Ar calibration spectra. The RVs were extracted via least-squares deconvolution of the observed spectra against non-rotating synthetic templates using the ATLAS9 models (Castelli & Kurucz, 2003), bef… view at source ↗
Figure 2
Figure 2. Spectral energy distributions for TOI-3053 (a), TOI-3272 (b) and TOI-3278 (c) from ARIADNE. The best-fit Phoenix v2 models for each star are shown in black, along with the broadband photometry (blue points) and expected flux in each filter (purple diamonds). The residuals are shown in the bottom sub-panel normalised by the uncertainties on each point (in units of standard errors). The horizontal error bars in wavele… view at source ↗
Figure 3
Figure 3. Lomb-Scargle periodogram for TIC 388280249 (TOI-3272). The blue curve shows the TESS periods, with the green and orange corresponding to ASAS-SN g and V band periods, respectively. Note, the power for each has been rescaled by dividing by the maximum power value for each dataset. 4. Data Analysis and Modelling 4.1 Planet Validation 4.1.1 Astrometry One method for checking for multiplicity in stellar systems is throu… view at source ↗
Figures from the paper (5 more)
Figure 4
Figure 4. Figure 4: Transit depth as a function of effective wavelength for TOI-3053 (a), TOI-3272 (b) and TOI-3278 (c) from individual fitting with Juliet. The error bars indicate the 1σ range, with the grey dashed line and shaded regions indicating the weighted mean depth and 99.8 % con…
Figure 5
Figure 5. Figure 5: The phase-folded light curves and RVs for TOI-3053b for each instrument/cadence. In (a), the best-fit transit model is displayed after the subtraction of the GP model for each instrument. The coloured points with error bars represent the photometric data binned to 10-m…
Figure 6
Figure 6. Figure 6: The phase-folded light curves for TOI-3272.01 for each cadence/instrument with best-fit transit model (in black), after the subtraction of the median GP model for each instrument. The coloured points with error bars represent the photometric data binned to 10-minutes f…
Figure 7
Figure 7. Figure 7: The phase-folded light curves and RVs for TOI-3278b / HATS-78b for each instrument/cadence. In (a), the best-fit transit model is displayed after the subtraction of the GP model for each instrument. The coloured points with error bars represent the photometric data bin…
Figure 8
Figure 8. Figure 8: The mass-radius-period parameter spaces for short-period exoplanets. In (a), the radii and orbital periods of known planets are shown with systems coloured by the stellar effective temperature. The TASSIE II TOIs are highlighted as points with 3σ error bars for their r…

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