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arxiv: 2606.04520 · v1 · pith:27W4PAOQnew · submitted 2026-06-03 · 📊 stat.ME · math.ST· stat.TH

Beyond First-order Asymptotics in Sequential Mean Testing

classification 📊 stat.ME math.STstat.TH
keywords alphalimitsequentialstoppingtesttimeasymptoticsbeyond
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We revisit the problem of sequentially testing the mean of bounded distributions in a level-$\alpha$ power-one framework. We study a $\mathrm{KL_{inf}}$-based sequential test that is known to attain the information-theoretic lower bound on the expected stopping time with exact constants as $\alpha \to 0$. Going beyond first-order asymptotics, we establish a central limit theorem (CLT) for the stopping time of this test. Our analysis proceeds in two steps. First, we prove a novel CLT for the $\mathrm{KL_{inf}}$ statistic itself, characterizing its fluctuations around its deterministic limit. We then leverage this result to show that the stopping time, centered appropriately and scaled by $\sqrt{\log(1/\alpha)}$, converges in distribution to a Gaussian limit with an explicit variance. This yields a second-order characterization of an asymptotically optimal sequential test for bounded distributions. Finally, we present numerical experiments that corroborate our theoretical findings.

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