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Determination of Hubble constant from Megamaser Cosmology Project using Profile Likelihood

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arxiv 2502.11998 v2 pith:2BF7SAO5 submitted 2025-02-17 astro-ph.IM astro-ph.CO

Shubham Barua , Vyaas Ramakrishnan , Shantanu Desai This is my paper
classification astro-ph.IMastro-ph.CO
keywords constanthubblebayesiancosmologyestimatelikelihoodmegamasernuisance
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abstract

The Megamaser Cosmology Project inferred a value for the Hubble constant given by $H_0=73.9 \pm 3.0 $ km/sec/Mpc. This value was obtained using Bayesian inference by marginalizing over six nuisance parameters, corresponding to the velocities of the megamaser galaxy systems. We obtain an independent estimate of the Hubble constant with the same data using frequentist inference. For this purpose, we use profile likelihood to dispense with the aforementioned nuisance parameters. The frequentist estimate of the Hubble constant is given by $H_0=73.5^{+3.0}_{-2.9}$ km/sec/Mpc and agrees with the Bayesian estimate to within $0.2\sigma$, and both approaches also produce consistent confidence/credible intervals. Therefore, this analysis provides a proof-of-principle application of profile likelihood in dealing with nuisance parameters in cosmology, which is complementary to Bayesian analysis.

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Cited by 3 Pith papers

Reviewed papers in the Pith corpus that reference this work. Sorted by Pith novelty score. Full citation record

  1. Reanalyzing Megamasers: a low value of $H_0$ from a local probe changes our view of the Hubble Tension

    astro-ph.CO 2026-08 conditional novelty 6.0 of 10

    Reanalyzing six megamaser galaxies with the M25 peculiar velocity reconstruction yields H0 ≈ 68.7 km/s/Mpc, consistent with the CMB and about 2.2σ below the local distance ladder.

  2. Constraints on Dark Energy Models Using Late Universe Probes

    astro-ph.CO 2025-06 conditional novelty 4.0 of 10

    Using late-universe probes only, the authors find all dark energy models remain within 1-2 sigma of Lambda CDM, which wins the Bayesian model comparison, and confirm that DESI's LRG1 and LRG2 points drive the dynamica...

  3. The Hubble tension: A decade review

    astro-ph.CO 2026-06 unverdicted novelty 3.0 of 10

    Pure early or late fixes to the Hubble tension are tightly constrained; remaining options are combined early-late interacting dark energy or new physics at the local-to-homogeneous transition.

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