Simulation Tool Development and Sensitivity Analysis of 160Gd Double Beta Decay Search by the PIKACHU Project

Neutrinoless double beta decay (0v2b) has been investigated as a physical process that can provide evidence for the Majorana nature of neutrinos. The theoretical predictions of the 0v2b rate are subject to significant uncertainty, primarily due to nuclear matrix elements (NME). To reduce this uncertainty, experimental measurements of the half-lives of two-neutrino double beta decay (2v2b) in various nuclei are essential as a benchmark for NME calculations. The PIKACHU (Pure Inorganic scintillator experiment in KAmioka for CHallenging Underground sciences) project searches for the previously unobserved 2v2b decay of 160Gd, employing Ce-doped Gd3Ga3Al2O12 (GAGG) single crystals. In the Phase 1 experiment, we aim to improve the current lower limit on the 2v2b half-life of 160Gd by a prior study using a Ce-doped Gd2SiO5 (GSO) crystal. Ultimately, in Phase 2, the project seeks to achieve a sensitivity surpassing the theoretical prediction of 7.4 x 10^20 years, enabling the potential discovery of the 160Gd 2v2b decay. In this paper, we describe the development of background models based on GEANT4 simulations. The modeled backgrounds are contributions from uranium and thorium decay chains, 40K present in GAGG, and 40K gamma-rays from outside of GAGG. Additionally, we developed models for both 2v2b and 0v2b decay by implementing the theoretical kinematics of two-electron emission in double beta decay in the GEANT4 simulation. As a result, our background models successfully reproduced the measured background spectrum through fitting. By generating pseudo background spectra expected in Phase 1 and analyzing them with the combined background and 2v2b models, we evaluated the 2v2b sensitivity of Phase 1 to be 2.78 x 10^19 years (90% C.L.). This paper presents the development of these simulation models and the expected sensitivities for both Phase 1 and Phase 2 based on the pseudo data analyses.