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The prior dependence of the DESI results
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abstract
In this short contribution, we explore the prior dependence of the recent DESI results, according to which a Bayesian comparison of $\Lambda$CDM with $w_0w_a$CDM cosmologies favors dynamical dark energy. It is a simple exercise to show that extending the prior lower bound of the dark energy parameters tilts the preference in favor of $\Lambda$CDM. Adopting the PantheonPlus supernovae catalog, for instance, a shift of the lower bound for $w_0,w_a$ from $-3$ to beyond $-4.6$ and $-5$, respectively, is sufficient to favor $\Lambda$CDM. This calls for caution when interpreting DESI results in the Bayesian context.
Forward citations
Cited by 2 Pith papers
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Breaking Free from the Swampland of Impossible Universes through the DESI Portal
DESI data indicating evolving dark energy may allow string theory to describe observed universes without violating swampland constraints on constant dark energy.
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Dark energy and cosmic acceleration
A review chapter summarizing the history, theory, and current observations of dark energy, presenting no new research results.
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