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Richardson's Forecast: the Dream and the Fantasy

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arxiv 2210.01674 v1 pith:45VKERD6 submitted 2022-08-27 physics.hist-ph

Richardson's Forecast: the Dream and the Fantasy

classification physics.hist-ph
keywords weatherrichardsondreamforecastforecastingmathematicalnumericalprediction
verification ladder T0 review T1 audit T2 compute T3 formal T4 reserved
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A remarkable book on weather forecasting was published just one hundred years ago. Written by the brilliant and prescient applied mathematician, Lewis Fry Richardson, Weather Prediction by Numerical Process was published by Cambridge University Press and went on sale in 1922 at a cost of 30 shillings. Weather Prediction by Numerical Process is a strikingly original scientific work, one of the most remarkable books on meteorology ever written. In it, Richardson described a systematic mathematical method for predicting the weather and demonstrated its application by carrying out a trial forecast. Richardson's dream was that scientific weather forecasting would one day become a practical reality. Modern weather forecasts are made by calculating solutions of the mathematical equations governing the atmosphere. The solutions are generated by complex simulation models implemented on powerful computer equipment. His dream has indeed come true.

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