A pixel-level model for event discovery in time-domain imaging

Difference imaging or image subtraction is a method that measures differential photometry by matching the pointing and point-spread function (PSF) between image frames. It is used for the detection of time-variable phenomena. Here we present a new category of method---CPM Difference Imaging, in which differences are not measured between matched images but instead between image frames and a data-driven predictive model that has been designed only to predict the pointing, PSF, and detector effects but not astronomical variability. In CPM Difference Imaging each pixel is modelled by the Causal Pixel Model (CPM) originally built for modeling Kepler data, in which pixel values are predicted by a linear combination of other pixels at the same epoch but far enough away such that these pixels are causally disconnected, astrophysically. It does not require that the user have any explicit model or description of the pointing or point-spread function of any of the images. Its principal drawback is that---in its current form---it requires an imaging campaign with many epochs and fairly stable telescope pointing. The method is applied to simulated data and also the K2 Campaign 9 microlensing data. We show that CPM Difference Imaging can detect variable objects and produce precise differentiate photometry in a crowded field. CPM Difference Imaging is capable of producing image differences at nearly photon-noise precision.