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RV-exoplanet eccentricities: Good, Beta, and Best

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arxiv 2503.20385 v2 pith:5XGSWK6O submitted 2025-03-26 astro-ph.EP

classification astro-ph.EP
keywords distributioneccentricitybetamixtureplanetsbestdescribeddistributions
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abstract

We examine the eccentricity distribution(s) of radial velocity detected exoplanets. Previously, the eccentricity distribution was found to be described well by a Beta distribution with shape parameters $a=0.867, b=3.03$. Increasing the sample size by a factor of 2.25, we find that the CDF regression method now prefers a mixture model of Rayleigh + Exponential distributions over the Beta distribution, with an increase in Bayesian evidence of $\Delta\ln{Z}\sim 77$ ($12.6\,\sigma$). Using PDF regression, the eccentricity distribution is best described by a Gamma distribution, with a Rayleigh + Exponential mixture a close second. The mixture model parameters, $\alpha = 0.68\pm0.05, \lambda=3.32\pm0.25, \sigma =0.11\pm0.01$, are consistent between methods. We corroborate findings that exoplanet eccentricities are drawn from independent parent distributions when splitting the sample by period, mass, and multiplicity. Systems with a known outer massive companion provide no positive evidence for an eccentricity distribution distinct from those without. We quantitatively show M-dwarf hosted planets share a common eccentricity distribution with those orbiting FGK-type stars. We release our python code, eccentriciPy, which allows bespoke tailoring of the input archive to create more relevant priors for particular problems in RV planet discovery and characterisation. We re-characterised example planets using either traditional Beta, or updated priors, finding differences for recovery of low-amplitude multi-signal systems. We explore the effects of a variety of prior choices. The accurate determination of small but non-zero eccentricity values has wide-ranging implications for modelling the structure and evolution of planets and their atmospheres due to the energy dissipated by tidal flexing.

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  1. Three new exoplanet systems from the Dispersed Matter Planet Project

    astro-ph.EP 2026-08 conditional novelty 6.0 of 10

    DMPP-7 hosts a confirmed 0.72 Saturn-mass planet at P=4.93 days; HD 67200 and HD 2134 show moderate evidence for 2.7-2.8 day low-mass candidates that remain unconfirmed.

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