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Are Whitepaper Claims Reflected in Market Structure? A Contamination-Aware Pipeline and a Power-Limited Null

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arxiv 2601.20336 v6 pith:77I2TLAI submitted 2026-01-28 q-fin.CP cs.LG

classification q-fin.CPcs.LG
keywords alignmentapproxcorpustokenswhitepapersabsenceapparentcontamination
verification ladder T0 review T1 audit T2 compute T3 formal
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abstract

Do the functional narratives in cryptocurrency whitepapers correspond to how their tokens behave in markets? We develop a content-verified, contamination-aware pipeline for measuring structural correspondence between project narratives and market structure, and report two results. The first is a cautionary one. An apparent entity-level signal in an earlier version of our corpus -- specialised tokens appearing to align more strongly than broad infrastructure tokens -- was entirely an artifact of corpus contamination: roughly a quarter of the documents were failed-download stubs or wrong-document whitepapers (for example, a "Cosmos" entry that was in fact Binance Smart Chain text), and the apparent ordering does not survive content verification: on the clean corpus no token registers as helping alignment. We therefore report it as a contamination diagnosis, not a finding. The second is an honest null. Combining zero-shot NLP classification of 43 content-verified whitepapers across 10 semantic categories with seven cross-sectional market-structure statistics computed from hourly data (17,543 timestamps, 2023-2024), and aligning the two spaces with Procrustes rotation and Tucker's congruence coefficient ($\phi$), we do not detect a significant claims-market alignment in this $n = 43$ sample (dimension-matched $\phi = 0.303$, zero-padded $\phi = 0.223$; both non-significant). A positive-control and power analysis shows the binding constraint is the low reliability of the text instrument: the minimum detectable effect is $\phi \approx 0.66$, well above the observed $\approx 0.22$. This is absence of evidence for alignment, not evidence of its absence -- we can reject strong alignment ($\phi \geq 0.70$) but cannot distinguish weak alignment ($\phi \approx 0.3$) from none.

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Cited by 2 Pith papers

Reviewed papers in the Pith corpus that reference this work. Sorted by Pith novelty score. Full citation record

  1. The Extremity Premium: Sentiment Regimes and Adverse Selection in Cryptocurrency Markets

    q-fin.ST 2026-02 reject novelty 5.0 of 10

    Extreme sentiment regimes show higher estimated spreads and uncertainty than neutral ones in Bitcoin data, but the effect is sensitive to controls and overlaps mechanically with volatility.

  2. Do Cryptocurrency Markets Differentiate Infrastructure from Regulatory Shocks? A Multi-Moment Event Study with Dependence-Robust Inference

    q-fin.ST 2026-02 conditional novelty 4.0 of 10

    In 15 negative crypto events (2019–2025), cumulative abnormal returns are statistically indistinguishable between infrastructure failures (−7.6%) and regulatory enforcement (−11.1%), difference +3.6 pp, p=0.81 under e...

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