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arxiv 2110.00597 v1 pith:B6FDMK4K submitted 2021-10-01 stat.AP econ.GNq-fin.EC

The Impacts of Mobility on Covid-19 Dynamics: Using Soft and Hard Data

classification stat.AP econ.GNq-fin.EC
keywords mobilitycovid-19effectscasesdeathssamplearoundbehavioral
verification ladder T0 review T1 audit T2 compute T3 formal T4 reserved
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This paper has the goal of evaluating how changes in mobility has affected the infection spread of Covid-19 throughout the 2020-2021 years. However, identifying a "clean" causal relation is not an easy task due to a high number of non-observable (behavioral) effects. We suggest the usage of Google Trends and News-based indexes as controls for some of these behavioral effects and we find that a 1\% increase in residential mobility (i.e. a reduction in overall mobility) have significant impacts for reducing both Covid-19 cases (at least 3.02\% on a one-month horizon) and deaths (at least 2.43\% at the two-weeks horizon) over the 2020-2021 sample. We also evaluate the effects of mobility on Covid-19 spread on the restricted sample (only 2020) where vaccines were not available. The results of diminishing mobility over cases and deaths on the restricted sample are still observable (with similar magnitudes in terms of residential mobility) and cumulative higher, as the effects of restricting workplace mobility turns to be also significant: a 1\% decrease in workplace mobility diminishes cases around 1\% and deaths around 2\%.

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