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Elucidating the Design Choice of Probability Paths in Flow Matching for Forecasting

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arxiv 2410.03229 v3 pith:BMCEFNL3 submitted 2024-10-04 stat.ML cs.LG

classification stat.MLcs.LG
keywords forecastingmodelprobabilitypathflowmatchingperformancechoice
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Flow matching has recently emerged as a powerful paradigm for generative modeling and has been extended to probabilistic time series forecasting in latent spaces. However, the impact of the specific choice of probability path model on forecasting performance remains under-explored. In this work, we demonstrate that forecasting spatio-temporal data with flow matching is highly sensitive to the selection of the probability path model. Motivated by this insight, we propose a novel probability path model designed to improve forecasting performance. Our empirical results across various dynamical system benchmarks show that our model achieves faster convergence during training and improved predictive performance compared to existing probability path models. Importantly, our approach is efficient during inference, requiring only a few sampling steps. This makes our proposed model practical for real-world applications and opens new avenues for probabilistic forecasting.

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Cited by 5 Pith papers

Reviewed papers in the Pith corpus that reference this work. Sorted by Pith novelty score. Full citation record

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  3. Flow Learners for PDEs: Toward a Physics-to-Physics Paradigm for Scientific Computing

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  4. FLEX: A Backbone for Diffusion-Based Modeling of Spatio-temporal Physical Systems

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    A hybrid U-Net and Transformer diffusion backbone trained in residual space with a velocity parametrization outperforms baselines on 2D turbulence super-resolution and forecasting, and generalizes zero-shot to unseen ...

  5. A Deep State Space Model for Rainfall-Runoff Simulations

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