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Simulating financial time series using attention

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arxiv 2207.00493 v1 pith:BQGKYPDB submitted 2022-07-01 q-fin.ST cs.LGq-fin.CP

classification q-fin.STcs.LGq-fin.CP
keywords financialgansattentiondataseriestimeconvolutionalfacts
verification ladder T0 review T1 audit T2 compute T3 formal
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Financial time series simulation is a central topic since it extends the limited real data for training and evaluation of trading strategies. It is also challenging because of the complex statistical properties of the real financial data. We introduce two generative adversarial networks (GANs), which utilize the convolutional networks with attention and the transformers, for financial time series simulation. The GANs learn the statistical properties in a data-driven manner and the attention mechanism helps to replicate the long-range dependencies. The proposed GANs are tested on the S&P 500 index and option data, examined by scores based on the stylized facts and are compared with the pure convolutional GAN, i.e. QuantGAN. The attention-based GANs not only reproduce the stylized facts, but also smooth the autocorrelation of returns.

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  1. Synthetic Data for Portfolios: A Throw of the Dice Will Never Abolish Chance

    q-fin.PM 2025-01 conditional novelty 6.0 of 10

    Generating excessive synthetic returns from small samples biases statistics, and generic GANs learn high-variance components that matter least for long-short portfolios.

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