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arxiv: 2607.00764 · v1 · pith:BRN75I6Rnew · submitted 2026-07-01 · 🌌 astro-ph.CO · astro-ph.GA· astro-ph.SR

The age of the Universe from a large sample of the oldest Galactic stars

Indranil Banik , Thenujaya Kudakolawa Kaluarachchige , Stephen Cookson , Harry Desmond This is my paper

Pith reviewed 2026-07-02 06:43 UTC · model grok-4.3

classification 🌌 astro-ph.CO astro-ph.GAastro-ph.SR
keywords age of the universeoldest starsMilky Waystellar agesHubble tensionLambda-CDMisochronesLAMOST
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The pith

Oldest Milky Way stars reach 13.73 billion years, matching CMB-based cosmology and challenging younger-universe fixes for the Hubble tension.

A machine-rendered reading of the paper's core claim, the machinery that carries it, and where it could break.

The paper uses ages of 155,600 carefully selected metal-poor, alpha-enriched Milky Way stars to reconstruct the upper end of the stellar age distribution. An MCMC approach on this large sample yields a maximum stellar age of 13.73 Gyr with small uncertainties. This value lines up with the 13.6 Gyr cosmic age expected in standard Lambda-CDM once the first long-lived stars form 0.2 Gyr after the Big Bang. The result therefore disfavors cosmological models that solve the Hubble tension exclusively with new physics before recombination, because those models require a universe only 12.9 Gyr old to fit low-redshift data.

Core claim

Applying YY isochrones to a sample of 247,103 stars with LAMOST spectroscopy and Gaia parallaxes, then restricting to metal-poor alpha-enhanced objects with consistent FLAME ages, produces a final catalog of 155,600 stars within 5 kpc. MCMC reconstruction of the latent age distribution gives an oldest-star age A_star of 13.73^{+0.18}_{-0.15} Gyr. This matches the 13.6 Gyr expected in CMB-calibrated Lambda-CDM under the assumption that the first long-lived stars formed 0.2 Gyr after the Big Bang, thereby casting doubt on pre-recombination solutions to the Hubble tension that imply a cosmic age of only 12.9 plus or minus 0.2 Gyr.

What carries the argument

MCMC reconstruction of the latent age distribution from the selected sample of 155,600 metal-poor alpha-enriched stars with consistent YY and FLAME ages.

If this is right

  • The cosmic age must be at least 13.5 Gyr once allowance is made for the 0.2 Gyr delay to first star formation.
  • Any Hubble-tension resolution that alters only pre-recombination physics and forces a 12.9 Gyr universe is disfavored.
  • Stellar modeling uncertainties are unlikely to shift the oldest-star age down by the required 0.8 Gyr given the low metallicities involved.
  • Quality cuts on the sample can move the inferred A_star by at most 0.4 Gyr in either direction.

Where Pith is reading between the lines

These are editorial extensions of the paper, not claims the author makes directly.

  • Future Gaia data releases or larger spectroscopic samples could tighten the uncertainty on A_star below 0.1 Gyr.
  • If the result holds, it strengthens the case for post-recombination or local explanations of the Hubble tension.
  • The same selection technique could be applied to other large surveys to test whether the oldest-star age is uniform across the Milky Way.

Load-bearing premise

Stellar ages from YY isochrones remain accurate for these low-metallicity, alpha-enriched stars even after accounting for possible systematic modeling errors.

What would settle it

An independent asteroseismic or alternative isochrone analysis of the same metal-poor stars returning a maximum age near 12.9 Gyr would falsify the claimed consistency with 13.6 Gyr cosmology.

Figures

Figures reproduced from arXiv: 2607.00764 by Harry Desmond, Indranil Banik, Stephen Cookson, Thenujaya Kudakolawa Kaluarachchige.

Figure 1
Figure 1. Figure 1: Top: The age distribution of all stars in the X22 catalogue older than 10 Gyr. Bottom: Age uncertainties shown against observed ages for these stars. The high-density regions are shown as a heat map, with stars in lower density regions shown individually. The magenta points with uncertainties show the mean and standard deviation in 𝜎𝐴 in each age bin, for which we impose a floor on the number of stars and … view at source ↗
Figure 2
Figure 2. Figure 2: Heat map showing the age-metallicity relation of our sample prior to cuts related to the chemistry and comparison with FLAME ages. Counts in each cell are normalised separately for each [Fe/H] slice relative to the cell with the highest value, better highlighting the features (X22). The solid magenta line shows our nominal quality cut (Equation 3). Stars above it are excluded because a very old star is unl… view at source ↗
Figure 4
Figure 4. Figure 4: Heat map showing the FLAME age-mass relation for stars in our sample prior to the quality cut comparing FLAME ages with the X22 spectroscopic ages using YY isochrones. Stars are shown individually in sparsely populated cells. Notice that the vast majority of the stars lie close to a line (brighter coloured cells). The solid magenta line shows our linear fit using 3𝜎 trendline outlier rejection over the 5 −… view at source ↗
Figure 6
Figure 6. Figure 6: Similar to [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p006_6.png] view at source ↗
Figure 7
Figure 7. Figure 7: The number of stars satisfying Equation 7 for different possible values of 𝐴★. We expect that when there is only one such star, we have found the actual 𝐴★ (see the text). rigour, culminating in our nominal MCMC analysis. In all cases, it is crucial to take into account the measurement uncertainties, which we expect inevitably cause some stars to have an observed 𝐴 > 𝐴★. 3.1 Individual age likelihoods The … view at source ↗
Figure 10
Figure 10. Figure 10: The red line shows the sum of logarithmic cumulative age likeli￾hoods for all stars in our nominal sample as a function of age (Equation 8). The horizontal solid lines correspond to the most likely result of our toy model (Section 3.1.1) with 𝐴★ = 14 Gyr, while the dashed lines in the same colour show the 1𝜎 uncertainty. Black (magenta) lines assume 7.5% (10%) age errors. inferred from the real sample is … view at source ↗
Figure 11
Figure 11. Figure 11: Our iterative reconstruction of 𝑃(𝐴) in 200 bins using Equation 9 after 1, 2, 5, and 30 stages (red, blue, green, and black lines, respectively). Notice how the tail is suppressed as the algorithm progresses. We consider the result converged after 30 stages. The vertical green (grey) line shows 𝐴 ETS ★ 𝐴 CMB ★  , assuming 𝑡f = 0.2 Gyr in both cases (Equation 2). correlation between 𝑃(𝐴) and any single L𝑖… view at source ↗
Figure 13
Figure 13. Figure 13: The solid grey line shows a first estimate of 𝑃(𝐴) from stacking the X22 age likelihoods for our nominal sample. Our MCMC reconstruction is shown in blue (Equation 10), with the solid line giving the mean and the shaded band the standard deviation, both using 3𝜎 outlier rejection. The solid red line shows our higher resolution iterative reconstruction (Section 4.1). The solid black vertical line marks the… view at source ↗
Figure 12
Figure 12. Figure 12: Top: The red line shows our iterative reconstruction of the latent age distribution (black line on [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p010_12.png] view at source ↗
Figure 14
Figure 14. Figure 14: The solid red line shows the ratio of the mean reconstructed 𝑃(𝐴) in each age bin to its standard deviation. This way of showing the MCMC reconstruction in [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p011_14.png] view at source ↗
Figure 15
Figure 15. Figure 15: Triangle plots for our nominal analysis and several variants, with results summarised in [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p012_15.png] view at source ↗
Figure 17
Figure 17. Figure 17: The age-metallicity relation for stars and GCs from the GSE merger (open symbols). The black stars show 90 kinematically selected GSE stars with asteroseismic ages and uncertainties (Montalbán et al. 2021). The red triangles show GSE stars from their study, while the red circles show GSE GCs (Limberg et al. 2022). The dashed black line shows their best-fitting GSE age-metallicity relation with an inferred… view at source ↗
Figure 18
Figure 18. Figure 18: shows the age-metallicity distribution for our nominal sample restricted further to [Fe/H] < −0.9, also excluding a small number of stars with 𝐴 + 𝜎𝐴 < 10 Gyr which would otherwise contaminate the sample. The red points show the observed ages of individual stars, while the blue points show the average observed age of stars in each [Fe/H] bin and the error on this average, as￾suming that intrinsic age disp… view at source ↗
Figure 19
Figure 19. Figure 19: Similar to [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p015_19.png] view at source ↗
Figure 20
Figure 20. Figure 20: Our 200-bin iterative population prior reconstruction of 𝑃(𝐴) for our early chemistry sample, using the method described in Section 4.1. The solid green and black vertical lines show 𝐴 ETS ★ and 𝐴 CMB ★ , respectively. suggests that 𝐴★ slightly exceeds 𝐴 CMB ★ and significantly exceeds 𝐴 ETS ★ , in line with our main result ( [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p016_20.png] view at source ↗
Figure 21
Figure 21. Figure 21: Triangle plot showing the inferred parameters in our early chem￾istry analysis (Equation 13). The joint posterior shows the 1𝜎, 2𝜎, and 3𝜎 contours. 7 DISCUSSION 7.1 Estimating 𝐴★ Our initial sample of 247,103 subgiant stars comes from LAM￾OST DR7 spectra (Cui et al. 2012; Zhao et al. 2012) cross-matched with Gaia eDR3 astrometry (Gaia Collaboration 2021). The ages of these stars were found by X22 using Y… view at source ↗
read the original abstract

We estimate the age of the Universe using the Xiang & Rix sample of 247,103 Milky Way stars with high-resolution spectroscopy from LAMOST DR7 and $Gaia$ eDR3 parallaxes. Stellar ages were estimated using YY isochrones up to 20 Gyr. To remove stars with unusually high and precise ages, we require old stars to be metal-poor and $\alpha$-enriched. We also require consistency between YY ages and those obtained with FLAME based only on $Gaia$ data. Our final sample of 155,600 stars within 5 kpc provides consistent cosmic age estimates using several techniques of increasing rigour. Our main results use an MCMC reconstruction of the latent age distribution, though our iterative reconstruction is very similar. Applying an innovative approach to our MCMC reconstruction and its uncertainties, we find that the oldest star has an age of $A_\star = 13.73^{+0.18}_{-0.15}$ Gyr. Varying the quality cuts can at most reduce this to $A_\star = 13.31^{+0.21}_{-0.18}$ Gyr or raise it to $14.02^{+0.18}_{-0.15}$ Gyr using a much lower or higher age-dependent metallicity ceiling, respectively. Our inferred $A_\star$ is consistent with the 13.6 Gyr expected in CMB-calibrated $\Lambda$CDM, assuming the first long-lived stars formed when the Universe was 0.2 Gyr old. This agreement casts doubt on solutions to the Hubble tension solely through new physics prior to recombination, which generally imply a cosmic age of $12.9 \pm 0.2$ Gyr to match low redshift probes. It is difficult for stellar modelling uncertainties to reconcile such a low age with our result given the low metallicities of the oldest stars in our sample and independent asteroseismic constraints.

Editorial analysis

A structured set of objections, weighed in public.

Desk editor's note, referee report, simulated authors' rebuttal, and a circularity audit. Tearing a paper down is the easy half of reading it; the pith above is the substance, this is the friction.

Referee Report

1 major / 2 minor

Summary. The manuscript estimates the age of the Universe from the oldest stars in a sample of 155,600 Milky Way stars drawn from LAMOST DR7 spectroscopy and Gaia eDR3 parallaxes. Stellar ages are computed with YY isochrones (up to 20 Gyr), subject to cuts requiring metal-poor, α-enriched stars and consistency with FLAME ages; an MCMC reconstruction of the latent age distribution then yields A_★ = 13.73^{+0.18}_{-0.15} Gyr for the oldest star. The result is stated to be consistent with the 13.6 Gyr expected in CMB-calibrated ΛCDM (assuming first long-lived stars formed at 0.2 Gyr) while casting doubt on 12.9 ± 0.2 Gyr cosmologies invoked to resolve the Hubble tension via pre-recombination new physics. Variations in quality cuts shift the lower edge to at most 13.31 Gyr.

Significance. If the central result holds after addressing modeling systematics, the work supplies a statistically large, independent lower bound on cosmic age from Galactic stellar archaeology. The use of multiple reconstruction techniques (MCMC and iterative) and cross-checks with FLAME ages constitutes a methodological strength; the direct comparison to specific early-universe solutions of the Hubble tension makes the claim falsifiable.

major comments (1)
  1. [Abstract and stellar modelling uncertainties discussion] Abstract (final paragraph) and the discussion of stellar modelling uncertainties: the assertion that 'it is difficult for stellar modelling uncertainties to reconcile such a low age with our result' is load-bearing for the claim that the measurement rules out 12.9 Gyr cosmologies, yet no numerical upper bound is supplied on the maximum plausible systematic overestimation of YY isochrone ages for the metal-poor ([Fe/H] ≲ −1), α-enriched stars. No propagation of plausible variations in mixing length, helium abundance, or diffusion through the MCMC latent-age reconstruction is presented, leaving the tension with 12.9 Gyr conditional on an unquantified assumption.
minor comments (2)
  1. [Sample selection] The precise functional form of the 'age-dependent metallicity ceiling' used to exclude high-age outliers is not stated explicitly; its impact on the final sample of 155,600 stars and on the MCMC posterior should be documented with a supplementary table or equation.
  2. [Results] Figure or table showing the posterior distribution of the oldest-star age under the baseline MCMC run versus the lowest-quality-cut variant would help readers assess how close 13.31 Gyr lies to the 12.9 Gyr threshold.

Simulated Author's Rebuttal

1 responses · 0 unresolved

We thank the referee for their thoughtful and constructive report. The single major comment raises a valid point about the need for more explicit quantification of stellar modeling systematics to support the claim regarding tension with 12.9 Gyr cosmologies. We address this below and will revise the manuscript accordingly.

read point-by-point responses

  1. Referee: Abstract (final paragraph) and the discussion of stellar modelling uncertainties: the assertion that 'it is difficult for stellar modelling uncertainties to reconcile such a low age with our result' is load-bearing for the claim that the measurement rules out 12.9 Gyr cosmologies, yet no numerical upper bound is supplied on the maximum plausible systematic overestimation of YY isochrone ages for the metal-poor ([Fe/H] ≲ −1), α-enriched stars. No propagation of plausible variations in mixing length, helium abundance, or diffusion through the MCMC latent-age reconstruction is presented, leaving the tension with 12.9 Gyr conditional on an unquantified assumption.

    Authors: We agree that a quantitative assessment of the maximum plausible systematic overestimation would make the argument more robust. In the revised manuscript we will add a dedicated subsection (and supporting appendix) that compiles literature constraints on the effects of mixing-length variations, helium abundance, and atomic diffusion for metal-poor, α-enhanced stars in the relevant parameter range. We will then perform a sensitivity analysis by shifting the YY isochrone grid within these bounds, re-running the MCMC latent-age reconstruction on the shifted ages, and reporting the resulting shift in the inferred A★ lower edge. This will supply the requested numerical upper bound on overestimation and allow direct propagation into the final uncertainty budget. revision: yes

Circularity Check

0 steps flagged

No circularity: stellar age derived from data and models, cosmology used only for post-hoc comparison

full rationale

The derivation chain starts from LAMOST+Gaia observations, applies YY isochrone fitting to obtain individual stellar ages, imposes quality cuts (metal-poor, alpha-enriched, FLAME consistency), and reconstructs the latent age distribution via MCMC to extract A_star. None of these steps reference cosmological parameters or prior results from the same authors. The subsequent comparison of A_star to the 13.6 Gyr ΛCDM expectation (with 0.2 Gyr formation delay) is an external consistency test, not an input to the age reconstruction. No self-citations, fitted inputs renamed as predictions, or ansatzes imported via citation appear in the load-bearing steps. The result is therefore self-contained against external benchmarks.

Axiom & Free-Parameter Ledger

2 free parameters · 2 axioms · 0 invented entities

The result depends on standard assumptions in stellar astrophysics and specific data selection criteria that are varied but not independently validated in the abstract.

free parameters (2)
  • age-dependent metallicity ceiling
    The paper varies this to change the inferred age between 13.31 and 14.02 Gyr, indicating it is a tunable parameter affecting the result.
  • first star formation time = 0.2 Gyr
    Assumed to align with LambdaCDM expectation for the comparison.
axioms (2)
  • domain assumption YY isochrones provide reliable ages for metal-poor alpha-enriched stars up to 20 Gyr
    Central to estimating stellar ages and selecting the oldest sample.
  • domain assumption The selected stars within 5 kpc are representative of the oldest population without significant contamination by younger stars
    Required for the sample of 155,600 stars to yield the true maximum age.

pith-pipeline@v0.9.1-grok · 5912 in / 1598 out tokens · 34150 ms · 2026-07-02T06:43:18.053708+00:00 · methodology

discussion (0)

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