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Towards a General Time Series Forecasting Model with Unified Representation and Adaptive Transfer

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arxiv 2405.17478 v3 pith:CILPFYOR submitted 2024-05-24 cs.LG stat.ML

classification cs.LGstat.ML
keywords seriestimeforecastingadaptivedownstreamgeneralmodelmodels
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With the growing availability of multi-domain time series data, there is an increasing demand for general forecasting models pre-trained on multi-source datasets to support diverse downstream prediction scenarios. Existing time series foundation models primarily focus on scaling up pre-training datasets and model sizes to enhance generalization performance. In this paper, we take a different approach by addressing two critical aspects of general forecasting models: (1) how to derive unified representations from heterogeneous multi-domain time series data, and (2) how to effectively capture domain-specific features to enable adaptive transfer across various downstream scenarios. To address the first aspect, we propose Decomposed Frequency Learning as the pre-training task, which leverages frequency-based masking and reconstruction to decompose coupled semantic information in time series, resulting in unified representations across domains. For the second aspect, we introduce the Time Series Register, which captures domain-specific representations during pre-training and enhances adaptive transferability to downstream tasks. Our model achieves the state-of-the-art forecasting performance on seven real-world benchmarks, demonstrating remarkable few-shot and zero-shot capabilities.

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Cited by 3 Pith papers

Reviewed papers in the Pith corpus that reference this work. Sorted by Pith novelty score. Full citation record

  1. Time Series Representations for Classification Lie Hidden in Pretrained Vision Transformers

    cs.LG 2025-06 conditional novelty 6.0 of 10

    Frozen vision transformers, applied to image representations of time series, produce classification features that outperform or match time series foundation models on UCR and UEA benchmarks.

  2. BLAST: Balanced Sampling Time Series Corpus for Universal Forecasting Models

    cs.LG 2025-05 conditional novelty 6.0 of 10

    A balanced sampling strategy over statistically characterized time series patterns lets universal forecasting models train on 78 billion tokens instead of 419 billion, with equal or better zero-shot accuracy.

  3. Enhancing Irregular Time Series Forecasting with Continuous-Time Modeling Framework

    cs.LG 2026-07 conditional novelty 5.0 of 10

    WrapFlow combines continuous-time event/gap tokenization with simulation-free residual flow matching on a Transformer to improve irregular multivariate time-series forecasting.

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