MARCIM-WG: A cyber wargame proposal based on math modeling applied in a naval scenario

Carlos Castaneda-Marroqu\'in; Daniel D\'iaz-L\'opez; Diego Cabuya-Padilla

arxiv: 2606.12395 · v1 · pith:CSEQLQILnew · submitted 2026-06-10 · 💻 cs.CR

MARCIM-WG: A cyber wargame proposal based on math modeling applied in a naval scenario

Diego Cabuya-Padilla , Daniel D\'iaz-L\'opez , Carlos Castaneda-Marroqu\'in This is my paper

Pith reviewed 2026-06-27 09:05 UTC · model grok-4.3

classification 💻 cs.CR

keywords cyber wargamemaritime cyber defensecyber situational awarenessnaval scenariowargamingsimulation modelincident response

0 comments

The pith

MARCIM-WG wargame delivers 34 percentage-point gains in maritime cyber situational awareness competencies.

A machine-rendered reading of the paper's core claim, the machinery that carries it, and where it could break.

The paper introduces MARCIM-WG as a maritime cyberdefense wargame to strengthen strategic cyber situational awareness. It uses a hybrid setup of physical board and computational simulation to create realistic decision scenarios in naval operations. Validation through scenario assessments and a competency evaluation demonstrates a 34 percentage-point improvement over a control group. A sympathetic reader would care because cyber incidents can degrade critical maritime services and better training mechanisms are needed to prepare decision-makers.

Core claim

MARCIM-WG is specified through high-level and low-level designs and instantiated in a fictional maritime cyber crisis scenario. It enables structured decision cycles, friction, and measurable consequences using NATO wargaming methodology. The operational assessment verifies decision sensitivity and outcome coherence across pessimistic, neutral, and optimistic configurations. The CSA competency evaluation using comparative design shows a +34.0 percentage-point improvement in the intervention group, largest in comprehension-related competencies.

What carries the argument

The MARCIM-WG hybrid wargame that combines physical tokens and cards with a computational simulation model for adjudication.

If this is right

Structured training exposes decision-makers to evolving attack dynamics and constrained resources.
Alignment of actions with incident-response procedures can be practiced and measured.
Outcome coherence can be tested under varying scenario configurations.
Competency gains are particularly strong in comprehension areas.

Where Pith is reading between the lines

These are editorial extensions of the paper, not claims the author makes directly.

The approach could inform development of similar wargames for other critical infrastructure sectors.
Mathematical modeling in the adjudication could support predictive analytics in live operations if extended.
Randomization in future studies would strengthen causal claims about the wargame's effectiveness.

Load-bearing premise

The comparative design assumes the control group is equivalent to the intervention group in all relevant respects so that the observed difference can be attributed to the wargame rather than selection, motivation, or prior knowledge differences.

What would settle it

Re-running the competency evaluation with randomized assignment to groups and pre-assessments to confirm baseline equivalence, checking if the 34-point difference holds.

Figures

Figures reproduced from arXiv: 2606.12395 by Carlos Castaneda-Marroqu\'in, Daniel D\'iaz-L\'opez, Diego Cabuya-Padilla.

**Figure 1.** Figure 1: MARCIM-WG interaction loop model between players, Game Board, and the analytically-assisted adjudication system. B. High-Level Design Specifications (HLD) 1) Theme and problem framing: MARCIM-WG is framed within maritime cyberdefense as a strategic and operational capacity to protect maritime power against cyber incidents. The design responds to a capability gap identified at the strategic level: limited … view at source ↗

**Figure 2.** Figure 2: Physical MARCIM-WG gameboard used by participants during gameplay to support decision-making, resource allocation, and state updates across adjudication cycles [20] [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p005_2.png] view at source ↗

**Figure 3.** Figure 3: MARCIM-WG adjudication software [20] (SERDUX-MARCIM operational adaptation) and example of simulation outputs used for tabletop updates. To support the adjudication process, the underlying SERDUX-MARCIM model is operationally adapted from its original formulation into a decision-support structure that preserves its system-level dynamics while reducing analytical complexity for gameplay purposes. The model … view at source ↗

**Figure 4.** Figure 4: summarizes the scenario-based validation approach used during the operational trials. The outcomes were generated through the analytically-assisted adjudication process (operational adaptation of the SERDUX-MARCIM model) and interpreted in terms of service availability and network degradation [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p006_4.png] view at source ↗

**Figure 5.** Figure 5: Competency and learning-outcome validation of MARCIM-WG (CSA-focused assessment)[20]. Table II summarizes the comparative results. At the global level, the intervention group achieved 91.2% correct answers versus 57.2% in the control group, yielding a reported improvement of +34.0 percentage points. By competency, the largest gain was reported for Competency 2 (integrated comprehension of cyber-crisis sc… view at source ↗

read the original abstract

As maritime operations increasingly depend on interconnected digital ecosystems, cyber incidents can propagate across maritime networks and degrade critical services. Strengthening strategic Cyber Situational Awareness (CSA) therefore requires training mechanisms that expose decision-makers to evolving attack dynamics, constrained resources, and the need to align actions with incident-response procedures. This paper introduces MARCIM-WG, a learning-oriented maritime cyberdefense wargame designed following the NATO wargaming methodology and implemented as a hybrid tabletop experience combining a physical board (tokens, indicators, and special cards) with analytically-assisted adjudication supported by a computational simulation model. The proposal is specified through High-Level Design (HLD) and Low-Level Design (LLD) specifications and instantiated in a fictional maritime cyber crisis scenario to enable structured decision cycles, friction, and measurable consequences. Validation combines (i) an operational scenario-based assessment under three configurations (pessimistic, neutral/most likely, optimistic) to verify decision sensitivity and outcome coherence, and (ii) a CSA competency and learning-outcome evaluation using a comparative design against an equivalent control group. Results show a +34.0 percentage-point improvement in the intervention group, with the largest gains in comprehension-related competencies.

Editorial analysis

A structured set of objections, weighed in public.

Desk editor's note, referee report, simulated authors' rebuttal, and a circularity audit. Tearing a paper down is the easy half of reading it; the pith above is the substance, this is the friction.

Desk Editor's Note private letter to a colleague

MARCIM-WG gives a concrete hybrid wargame design for maritime cyber training, but the +34pp gain cannot be attributed to the game because the comparative evaluation supplies no baseline checks or assignment details.

read the letter

The main takeaway is that this paper lays out a specific hybrid tabletop wargame for naval cyber defense training, complete with physical components plus simulation support, but the central learning-outcome claim rests on an under-documented comparison.

The design work is the stronger part. The authors follow NATO wargaming steps, define high-level and low-level specifications, and embed the game in a fictional maritime cyber crisis. They test decision sensitivity across pessimistic, neutral, and optimistic configurations and show that outcomes stay coherent. That level of operational detail is useful for anyone who actually runs exercises in this domain.

The evaluation section is the clear weak point. The abstract reports a 34 percentage-point improvement in the intervention arm over the control arm, with biggest gains in comprehension. Yet the text gives no information on participant assignment method, pre-test CSA scores, demographics, or any check that the groups started equivalent. The stress-test concern holds up on the supplied material: without those controls, the difference could reflect selection or motivation rather than the wargame. No sample sizes, error bars, or statistical tests appear either.

There are no equations or fitted parameters, so the circularity burden is low, but the empirical claim is presented as a result rather than a derivation. Citations cover existing wargaming work, which is appropriate.

This paper is for practitioners and researchers who build or evaluate cyber defense exercises in maritime settings. A reader looking for a worked example of hybrid mechanics and scenario design will find usable material.

It deserves peer review. The design is specified enough to be discussed, and referees can require the authors to document or strengthen the comparative arm. I would send it forward rather than desk-reject.

Referee Report

1 major / 0 minor

Summary. The paper proposes MARCIM-WG, a hybrid tabletop cyber wargame for maritime cyberdefense training following NATO methodology. It combines a physical board with tokens and cards and a computational simulation for adjudication, specified via High-Level Design (HLD) and Low-Level Design (LLD) documents, and instantiated in a fictional naval cyber crisis scenario. Validation includes an operational scenario assessment under pessimistic/neutral/optimistic configurations and a comparative CSA competency evaluation reporting a +34.0 percentage-point improvement in the intervention group over control, with largest gains in comprehension competencies.

Significance. If the empirical result holds after proper controls, the work would supply initial evidence that structured, analytically-assisted wargaming can measurably improve cyber situational awareness competencies in maritime settings. The hybrid physical-analytical format and explicit HLD/LLD specifications could serve as a reusable template for domain-specific cyber training exercises.

major comments (1)

[CSA competency and learning-outcome evaluation] CSA competency and learning-outcome evaluation (abstract and validation section): The reported +34.0 percentage-point improvement rests on a comparative design, yet the manuscript supplies no information on participant assignment method, sample sizes, pre-test CSA scores, demographics, exclusion criteria, or any statistical test for baseline equivalence between intervention and control groups. Without these details the observed difference cannot be attributed to MARCIM-WG rather than selection or prior-knowledge confounds.

Simulated Author's Rebuttal

1 responses · 0 unresolved

We thank the referee for the constructive feedback on the CSA competency evaluation. We address the major comment below and commit to expanding the relevant section in revision.

read point-by-point responses

Referee: CSA competency and learning-outcome evaluation (abstract and validation section): The reported +34.0 percentage-point improvement rests on a comparative design, yet the manuscript supplies no information on participant assignment method, sample sizes, pre-test CSA scores, demographics, exclusion criteria, or any statistical test for baseline equivalence between intervention and control groups. Without these details the observed difference cannot be attributed to MARCIM-WG rather than selection or prior-knowledge confounds.

Authors: We agree that the manuscript does not currently report the requested details on the comparative evaluation design. In the revised manuscript we will expand the validation section to include participant assignment method, sample sizes, pre-test CSA scores where collected, demographic summaries, exclusion criteria, and any statistical tests performed to assess baseline equivalence. These additions will allow readers to better evaluate the internal validity of the reported improvement. revision: yes

Circularity Check

0 steps flagged

No circularity: empirical outcome reported without derivation from fitted parameters or self-referential definitions.

full rationale

The paper presents MARCIM-WG as a design proposal validated by an empirical comparative evaluation that reports a measured +34pp improvement. No equations, fitted parameters, or derivation chain appear in the abstract or design description. The result is framed as an observed outcome from participant assessment rather than a quantity obtained by construction from the authors' own prior definitions, models, or self-citations. The central claim therefore does not reduce to its inputs and remains externally falsifiable via the reported competency scores.

Axiom & Free-Parameter Ledger

0 free parameters · 0 axioms · 0 invented entities

No mathematical model, free parameters, or invented entities are described in the abstract. The work rests on standard assumptions about wargame validity and group equivalence that are not detailed here.

pith-pipeline@v0.9.1-grok · 5758 in / 1043 out tokens · 22089 ms · 2026-06-27T09:05:41.560413+00:00 · methodology

discussion (0)

Reference graph

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