Computation of nucleation of a non-equilibrium first-order phase transition using a rare-event algorithm

We introduce a new Forward-Flux Sampling in Time (FFST) algorithm to efficiently measure transition times in rare-event processes in non-equilibrium systems, and apply it to study the first-order (discontinuous) kinetic transition in the Ziff-Gulari-Barshad model of catalytic surface reaction. The average time for the transition to take place, as well as both the spinodal and transition points, are clearly found by this method.