The MUSCLES Treasury Survey IV: Scaling Relations for Ultraviolet, Ca II K, and Energetic Particle Fluxes from M Dwarfs

Characterizing the UV spectral energy distribution (SED) of an exoplanet host star is critically important for assessing its planet's potential habitability, particularly for M dwarfs as they are prime targets for current and near-term exoplanet characterization efforts and atmospheric models predict that their UV radiation can produce photochemistry on habitable zone planets different than on Earth. To derive ground-based proxies for UV emission for use when Hubble Space Telescope observations are unavailable, we have assembled a sample of fifteen early-to-mid M dwarfs observed by Hubble, and compared their non-simultaneous UV and optical spectra. We find that the equivalent width of the chromospheric Ca II K line at 3933 Angstroms, when corrected for spectral type, can be used to estimate the stellar surface flux in ultraviolet emission lines, including H I Lyman alpha. In addition, we address another potential driver of habitability: energetic particle fluxes associated with flares. We present a new technique for estimating soft X-ray and >10 MeV proton flux during far-UV emission line flares (Si IV and He II) by assuming solar-like energy partitions. We analyze several flares from the M4 dwarf GJ 876 observed with Hubble and Chandra as part of the MUSCLES Treasury Survey and find that habitable zone planets orbiting GJ 876 are impacted by large Carrington-like flares with peak soft X-ray fluxes >1e-3 W m-2 and possible proton fluxes ~100-1000 pfu, approximately four orders of magnitude more frequently than modern-day Earth.